Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps also. A few inches but I doubt that.

You're getting white rain at best, surface temps are way too warm 

Probably have to wait til mid Dec for a light to moderate event. Seems likely we'll get something with coming pattern 

[wdrag]

I see just about everyone has tossed in the towel.  So for now it's the best global modeling in the world (EC-EPS ECAI) vs all the other warmer model runs.  

Results ahead... front end could be a little bit of accumulative fun for us Tuesday morning.  

Will check back tomorrow to see if my over reliance on these colder cycles have any validity going forward. 

[SHELEG]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're getting white rain at best, surface temps are way too warm 

Probably have to wait til mid Dec for a light to moderate event. Seems likely we'll get something with coming pattern 

If we get the perfect track temps will come down.

[wishcast_hater]

I know it’s way too early for accumulation projections but The Weather Channel has me down for 5-8” and AccuWeather 3-6”.
One can only dream.


.

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

If we get the perfect track temps will come down.

High is moving out, antecedent airmass isn't cold enough. Track won't help. 

You need to be well N&W or elevated 

[snywx]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

I know it’s way too early for accumulation projections but The Weather Channel has me down for 5-8” and AccuWeather 3-6”.
One can only dream.


.

As of right now every piece of model guidance has a general 4-7" from E PA/Sussex into Orange and through Putnam/Dutchess. The exception being the NAM. 

[the_other_guy]

Where is that 287 horse and buggy photo?

I dont think its our storm, but be ready to bust it out!

[Krs4Lfe]

Just simply not enough cold air y for this storm to produce any accumulation likely south of I-87 or I-84. High pressure is moving out too quickly, and our source region is still well above normal because of a warm fall. That being said. I’d definitely say that once you reach NJ/PA border; you’ll definitely see at least a few inches out that way. Expecting nothing but cold rain for most of us on here 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I see just about everyone has tossed in the towel.  So for now it's the best global modeling in the world (EC-EPS ECAI) vs all the other warmer model runs.  

Results ahead... front end could be a little bit of accumulative fun for us Tuesday morning.  

Will check back tomorrow to see if my over reliance on these colder cycles have any validity going forward. 

"about everyone"-those of us in NYC and coast. Where you are and I-84 corridor, still hopefully a decent event. Hopefully a good surprise can happen for many of us. I-84 corridor still looks in decent shape. Cold rain sucks but I'll deal. 

[Snowlover11]

48 minutes ago, snywx said:

As of right now every piece of model guidance has a general 4-7" from E PA/Sussex into Orange and through Putnam/Dutchess. The exception being the NAM. 

except the NAM lol

[WestBabylonWeather]

Tracking snow in our area this early isn’t an every year thing. This is good. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS is south for sure

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I see just about everyone has tossed in the towel.  So for now it's the best global modeling in the world (EC-EPS ECAI) vs all the other warmer model runs.  

Results ahead... front end could be a little bit of accumulative fun for us Tuesday morning.  

Will check back tomorrow to see if my over reliance on these colder cycles have any validity going forward. 

It's a big climate area in this forum Walt most of us 40 miles or more north of NYC are still watching closely. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I think there's a combination of rain/sleet/snow at the start but otherwise mostly rain nearer the coast possibly heavy at times. I'm more interested in Friday night.

WX/PT

[RU848789]

First NWS snowfall map - looks like the NBM, i.e., a compromise between most of the models showing little to no snow along/SE of 95 and the Euro/AIFS camp which are obviously more bullish on 95 snowfall.

[North and West]

Where is that 287 horse and buggy photo?
I dont think its our storm, but be ready to bust it out!

I got you


.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is south for sure

Euro gives nyc some snow but nothing serious  

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro gives nyc some snow but nothing serious  

We'd probably get a solid storm if airmass was a little colder. Pretty nice track actually 

[wdrag]

The southeastern edge of this wintry event should lie along the Interstate 95 corridor and include NYC-Philly-DC-Baltimore where a minor accumulation of sleet or snow occurs during the Tuesday morning rush hour. For these I95 urban centers, lets count on 0.1-1" of snow sleet at the start but probably not much of a problem due to anticipated melting on pavement. Still I'd leave a little earlier there and count on rain by 10AM.

No change from me on the thread headline. That's my take at 7AM

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro gives nyc some snow but nothing serious  

Its interesting that most people are dismissing the Euro and going with the worst models GFS-NAM Etc. The Euro snowfall map looks serious enough for the immediate metro to me for so early in the season . Oh Well !

[Tatamy]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Its interesting that most people are dismissing the Euro and going with the worst models GFS-NAM Etc. The Euro snowfall map looks serious enough for the immediate metro to me for so early in the season

With the 06z run the EC AI guidance is more aligned with most of the other models WRT expected snow totals.  The EC OP is on the SE side of the envelope.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Its interesting that most people are dismissing the Euro and going with the worst models GFS-NAM Etc. The Euro snowfall map looks serious enough for the immediate metro to me for so early in the season . Oh Well !

NYC would most likely see snow in the front . It all depends how fast the precip gets up here when the cold is still around. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

With the 06z run the EC AI guidance is more aligned with most of the other models WRT expected snow totals.  The EC OP is on the SE side of the envelope.

Time will tell still 2 days of modeling to go through

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC would most likely see snow in the front . It all depends how fast the precip gets up here when the cold is still around. 

Time is still on our side 2 days still till showtime...........I have been saying all along we have to wait till events unfold after that Great Lakes LP passes and how fast the HP sets up shop in southeast Canada and if it decides to stay put for awhile and how fast like you just mentioned the LP develops and moves in from the south its all in the timing

 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Time will tell still 2 days of modeling to go through

Very true.  Interesting to track.

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

The southeastern edge of this wintry event should lie along the Interstate 95 corridor and include NYC-Philly-DC-Baltimore where a minor accumulation of sleet or snow occurs during the Tuesday morning rush hour. For these I95 urban centers, lets count on 0.1-1" of snow sleet at the start but probably not much of a problem due to anticipated melting on pavement. Still I'd leave a little earlier there and count on rain by 10AM.

No change from me on the thread headline. That's my take at 7AM

With temps along 95 being below 32F before sunrise and maybe 1" of snow falling, there could be accumulation on roads which impacts the morning rush hour before temps go above 32F and precip changes to rain and the indirect sun aids in melting.  

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

With temps along 95 being below 32F before sunrise and maybe 1" of snow falling, there could be accumulation on roads which impacts the morning rush hour before temps go above 32F and precip changes to rain and the indirect sun aids in melting.  

That's correct... presuming temps at 5-6A are 31.  

Am not absolutely sure they will. be that cold in the cities. EC AI slightly warmer.  No matter, intensity at onset matters.  Also, by the time this gets here, I would think DPW's have treated cities to make it easier for the urban centers of I95.  

Otherwise some troubles lurk for the interior, including wet snow acc of 4" or more causing a few tree limbs to break s CT to NNJ

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, snywx said:

As of right now every piece of model guidance has a general 4-7" from E PA/Sussex into Orange and through Putnam/Dutchess. The exception being the NAM. 

Nothing has changed since yesterday. This is still a snowstorm once you get 40 miles or more north and northwest of the city (Orange, Sussex and Putnam). South of there is a snow/mix to rain. Not really sure why the 0z run of the op EURO is getting posted this morning instead of the new 6z run, which is clearly coming more into line with all the other guidance. It was the most SE of all other guidance at 0z and therefore was an outlier. This was/is in no way, shape or form a NYC snowstorm

[NEG NAO]

45 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

With temps along 95 being below 32F before sunrise and maybe 1" of snow falling, there could be accumulation on roads which impacts the morning rush hour before temps go above 32F and precip changes to rain and the indirect sun aids in melting.  

problem with indirect sun this time of the year is the very low sun angle-and whats with this area of snow this morning moving through eastern PA into NJ ? Will Tuesday mornings radar look similar to this mornings but surface temps lower Tuesday ?

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Why wait till Tuesday when snow is falling today guys.