Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps also. A few inches but I doubt that.

You're getting white rain at best, surface temps are way too warm 

Probably have to wait til mid Dec for a light to moderate event. Seems likely we'll get something with coming pattern 

[wdrag]

I see just about everyone has tossed in the towel.  So for now it's the best global modeling in the world (EC-EPS ECAI) vs all the other warmer model runs.  

Results ahead... front end could be a little bit of accumulative fun for us Tuesday morning.  

Will check back tomorrow to see if my over reliance on these colder cycles have any validity going forward. 

[SHELEG]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're getting white rain at best, surface temps are way too warm 

Probably have to wait til mid Dec for a light to moderate event. Seems likely we'll get something with coming pattern 

If we get the perfect track temps will come down.

[wishcast_hater]

I know it’s way too early for accumulation projections but The Weather Channel has me down for 5-8” and AccuWeather 3-6”.
One can only dream.


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[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

If we get the perfect track temps will come down.

High is moving out, antecedent airmass isn't cold enough. Track won't help. 

You need to be well N&W or elevated 

[snywx]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

I know it’s way too early for accumulation projections but The Weather Channel has me down for 5-8” and AccuWeather 3-6”.
One can only dream.


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As of right now every piece of model guidance has a general 4-7" from E PA/Sussex into Orange and through Putnam/Dutchess. The exception being the NAM. 

[the_other_guy]

Where is that 287 horse and buggy photo?

I dont think its our storm, but be ready to bust it out!

[Krs4Lfe]

Just simply not enough cold air y for this storm to produce any accumulation likely south of I-87 or I-84. High pressure is moving out too quickly, and our source region is still well above normal because of a warm fall. That being said. I’d definitely say that once you reach NJ/PA border; you’ll definitely see at least a few inches out that way. Expecting nothing but cold rain for most of us on here 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I see just about everyone has tossed in the towel.  So for now it's the best global modeling in the world (EC-EPS ECAI) vs all the other warmer model runs.  

Results ahead... front end could be a little bit of accumulative fun for us Tuesday morning.  

Will check back tomorrow to see if my over reliance on these colder cycles have any validity going forward. 

"about everyone"-those of us in NYC and coast. Where you are and I-84 corridor, still hopefully a decent event. Hopefully a good surprise can happen for many of us. I-84 corridor still looks in decent shape. Cold rain sucks but I'll deal. 

[Snowlover11]

48 minutes ago, snywx said:

As of right now every piece of model guidance has a general 4-7" from E PA/Sussex into Orange and through Putnam/Dutchess. The exception being the NAM. 

except the NAM lol

[WestBabylonWeather]

Tracking snow in our area this early isn’t an every year thing. This is good. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS is south for sure

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I see just about everyone has tossed in the towel.  So for now it's the best global modeling in the world (EC-EPS ECAI) vs all the other warmer model runs.  

Results ahead... front end could be a little bit of accumulative fun for us Tuesday morning.  

Will check back tomorrow to see if my over reliance on these colder cycles have any validity going forward. 

It's a big climate area in this forum Walt most of us 40 miles or more north of NYC are still watching closely. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I think there's a combination of rain/sleet/snow at the start but otherwise mostly rain nearer the coast possibly heavy at times. I'm more interested in Friday night.

WX/PT

[RU848789]

First NWS snowfall map - looks like the NBM, i.e., a compromise between most of the models showing little to no snow along/SE of 95 and the Euro/AIFS camp which are obviously more bullish on 95 snowfall.

[North and West]

Where is that 287 horse and buggy photo?
I dont think its our storm, but be ready to bust it out!

I got you


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[MJO812]

5 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is south for sure

Euro gives nyc some snow but nothing serious  

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro gives nyc some snow but nothing serious  

We'd probably get a solid storm if airmass was a little colder. Pretty nice track actually 

[wdrag]

The southeastern edge of this wintry event should lie along the Interstate 95 corridor and include NYC-Philly-DC-Baltimore where a minor accumulation of sleet or snow occurs during the Tuesday morning rush hour. For these I95 urban centers, lets count on 0.1-1" of snow sleet at the start but probably not much of a problem due to anticipated melting on pavement. Still I'd leave a little earlier there and count on rain by 10AM.

No change from me on the thread headline. That's my take at 7AM