First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM will probably nuke closer to the cape if it did that at 6z.

Fundamentally handling the vort differently this run....keeping it strong into N Ohio....it's gonna be a warm/zonked run. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is gonna be more amped than 06z just based on 12 hour panel. 

just analyzing the last several cycles of this guy ...

the reason it is so robust isn't really rocket science.  It's straight up meeting the bombogenesis check list.   1004 mb --> 987 type spread in 12 hours is sufficient.

But what comes along with that is the total potency in the deep layer... There's clearly going to be a whopper frontogenic band with something UVM exotic in the 700 mb ...probably smack in the growth region of the sounding - just based off the (synoptic + experience)/2 one doesn't really even have to look at the software to see that's the case.  

The question is ... is it all right ?  proooobably not.    I gotta say, back in the headier days of 2005, the then ETA ( I think it was still the ETA? but either way) was pimping a bomb big time, and the reason was pretty clear why then.  I'm not sure I'm seeing that set up here, because the antecedent frontal/thermal compression from NJ to Cape Cod is not nearly as extreme in this case.   I think the NAM is over processing in that lower levels as systemic bias in that model - it's probably why it has a NW bias in its outer ranges, one that it then sans when it gets closer and exposes said bias... But, that actually helps it do better than other guidance when the situation is like Dec 2005 set up. The problem is ...it's always on, even when the situations are softer. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

The Great Bay being some 10 miles inland is an important factor that I think only the locals can fully appreciate.

A former coworker moved to that area and he was amazed by the microclimate that exists there. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fundamentally handling the vort differently this run....keeping it strong into N Ohio....it's gonna be a warm/zonked run. 

Yep sucks for most of mass 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Rain is dancing on my doorstep on this run...

[CoastalWx]

Yeah this one is for SNH and maybe watatic lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Then it gets colder after that initial warm push

[Kitz Craver]

It would be hilarious and absolutely fitting if SNE in it’s entirety ended up cold rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah this one is for SNH and maybe watatic lol.

I've ignored the NAM every single cycle.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep sucks for most of mass 

Looks like those NAM runs from like 4 or 5 cycles ago. Not the ones that brought mixing to dendrite ,but maybe those runs just after that where it was still bring it to the NH border pretty easily. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

It would be hilarious and absolutely fitting if SNE in it’s entirety ended up cold rain. 

..at least some people may be able to  fiil their tubs with free water lol...

[DavisStraight]

I thought I was safe in Maine but being close to the coast is gonna kill me.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like those NAM runs from like 4 or 5 cycles ago. Not the ones that brought mixing to dendrite ,but maybe those runs just after that where it was still bring it to the NH border pretty easily. 

A little Kraft ending. The short wave was stronger, and also look how the low has like an appendage sticking up towards off Block Island. That’s gonna help allow east and southeast flow to kind of overspread the area versus having a nice intensifying concentric low that would help cut the warming off a loft as you mentioned earlier.

[radarman]

[Typhoon Tip]

I also want to point out an aspect ( that I'm sure no one will acknowledge haha).  I'm noticing this is trying to be weaker as it gets closer in the guidance.  

This is an aspect that I have been advertising ... because it is a coherent bias in all guidance, really. Regardless of Euro this and Ukmet that, and JMA to NAVGEM and back... as I've mentioned all but ad nauseam in the past, there's something like a variable % in reduction of systemic prominence at go times.  It's unclear why exactly, but ignore at own peril.  I'm honing in a testable assumption.  Anyway, it's variable, but more times than not there's some loss coming down the stretch with these things.   Perhaps this will be one of the lower % gyppings (ha!), and if the NAM is correct with its oversensitivity to cyclogenesis/strength then so be it. But, this run is losing/lost something and with it ... there's probably dynamical reduction and the sfc/900 layer is thus marginally warmer.

 

[dryslot]

Nam is a crush job in SNH.

[Cyclone-68]

I hope I have the correct sun angle for my rain tomorrow 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nam is a crush job in SNH.

Dendy FTW

[CoastalWx]

It’s pretty clear someone is definitely losing power and probably for a few days at least. Heavy wet snow and then temps drop into the upper 20s, perfect recipe. I guess if it’s more like 5 to 8 it wouldn’t be as bad, but any more than that could have issues for sure.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nam is a crush job in SNH.

NAM clown gives me a foot (less than earlier runs) but I toss that

[ineedsnow]

We foot!

[Cyclone-68]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s pretty clear someone is definitely losing power and probably for a few days at least. Heavy wet snow and then temps drop into the upper 20s, perfect recipe. I guess if it’s more like 5 to 8 it wouldn’t be as bad, but any more than that could have issues for sure.

I’m ok with not losing power. If I do I have to drive 45 miles out of my way instead of working from home 

[UnitedWx]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

OMFG. Shoot whoever said that, to the sun. 

Someone at the NWS must be trolling now... or just plain dumbass

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m ok with not losing power. If I do I have to drive 45 miles out of my way instead of working from home 

The cold rain will tear down the grid in Braintreesurgeon

[dryslot]

Both Nam's looks good.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

NAM clown gives me a foot (less than earlier runs) but I toss that

Unless this ends up as a total model failure inside of 30 hours, you're pretty much a lock for 8"+

[weatherwiz]

Just northwest of that R/S line is going to rip. That's a nice fronto band that materializes on the NAM. A little concerned though because the DGZ is on the higher side so it will take some heft upward vertical motion to really crank out good growth and rates but that is doable across a narrow swath. Hell, there may also be some thunder/lightning that scrapes the Outer Cape.

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think some of the underlining physics and what not are changing? But I’d have to look into that.

   ...and I didn't even know any of this was in the works until about 10 minutes ago so .. heh

[Typhoon Tip]

Little detail about this NAM run ... it's gotta pretty defined CCB band lagging back into central zones passing through 42 hours out.  That was less clearly defined in previous runs.  If that's true, areas that disappointingly had gone over to big droplet cold rains with one or two windshield cat paws would likely flash freeze while a couple of exit inches.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Both Nam's looks good.

Speak for yourself