First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gfs is so fundamentally different in how it handles the cyclogenesis. 

I feel like it's been the most consistent whereas the Euro changes with the wind. Idk, weird to consider the GFS possibly leading the way on this but I would say climo argues for a track similar to what it's showing.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s just way more consolidated with the vort as it moves through the Plains and Midwest

But it’s not even that potent. Just blows up the low.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Scott and son at the Sandbar that run

Scott and Son lol. 

[dendrite]

GFS has been consistently wrong before too. I’m in the way overdone camp.

But if this was years ago it would be a sheared POS that would eventually catch on while the other models tickle NW as we got deeper into NAM range. 

[Snowcrazed71]

If this turns out to be right, then I guess the GFS could be crowned King for the first winter storm of the season for us. It seems like the other three models, Euro, Canadian, an icon all seem to be in a similar place. I'm thinking by tomorrow or Sunday we'll have a very clear picture, maybe ..... 

[Damage In Tolland]

Are we losing it?

[Damage In Tolland]

One of those deals where the Euro caves?

[WxWatcher007]

55 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha it was in jest as a joke.

Personally, I want it over like metro-west of BOS, lol.

I feel like it’s my duty as a white walker north of the wall for a comment here and there… but in reality it is nice to see enthusiasm and hope again on the forum.

It feels a bit like the old days on here for the past 48 hours or so.

Don't worry, you have backup now, quietly cheering you on.  

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gfs is so fundamentally different in how it handles the cyclogenesis. 

 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But it’s not even that potent. Just blows up the low.

Yeah, I think that's way overdone. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS has been consistently wrong before too. I’m in the way overdone camp.

But if this was years ago it would be a sheared POS that would eventually catch on while the other models tickle NW as we got deeper into NAM range. 

Sell that GFS run.

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

Sell that GFS run.

Sell’em all. 2” interior QPF runs? Not buying it. 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One of those deals where the Euro caves?

I feel like the weighted blend right now would be 75% Euro, 25% GFS, only because there's more modeling supporting the Euro right now.

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Sell’em all. 2” interior QPF runs? Not buying it. 

Were not seeing 2" qpf, Probably 0.5-1.0" would be more realistic, 18z GEFS looks nothing like the OP, Its SE of it.

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One of those deals where the Euro caves?

Or does it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sell’em all. 2” interior QPF runs? Not buying it. 

Me, neither.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations 

I agree....I'm fine with that.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Were not seeing 2" qpf, Probably 0.5-1.0" would be more realistic, 18z GEFS looks nothing like the OP, Its SE of it.

Yeah that’s decently SE of the EPS now.

[78Blizzard]

The GFS is clearly the outlier and it is all alone with that depiction.

When you compare the 18z GFS and NAM @ 84 hr, you can see @ h5 the GFS trough is just about to turn negative, while the NAM is nowhere near turning negative. 

 

[dendrite]

NAM synoptics at 84hr can be creative

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM starts to be helpful around 24 hours out*

 

*tongue firmly in cheek

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The GFS is clearly the outlier and it is all alone with that depiction.

When you compare the 18z GFS and NAM @ 84 hr, you can see @ h5 the GFS trough is just about to turn negative, while the NAM is nowhere near turning negative. 

 

there appears to be assimilation bias in the gfs 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM synoptics at 84hr can be creative

Yeah, I'd hold off on using it for at least another couple days if at all, I'm sure its going to get quite entertaining going forward.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I'd hold off on using it for at least another couple days if at all, I'm sure its going to get quite entertaining going forward.

It’ll likely pass thru 2 or 3 cycles selling a NW bias between 24 and 60 hours 

[MJO812]

Euro AI is even flatter

 

[dryslot]

GFS and Euro at polar opposites.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

GFS and Euro at polar opposites.

Gfs is alone

Euro is also now slightly south and east

[dryslot]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs is alone

Euro is also now slightly south and east

I saw it, Thats why i had the comment.

[UnitedWx]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are we losing it?

Possibly mentally for some.  Lots to work out still

[dendrite]

18z euro is south. Gotta get that post in. 

[UnitedWx]

I hate to be that guy, but when is this wave onshore for better sampling, tomorrow afternoon?

[Snowcrazed71]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is alone

Euro is also now slightly south and east

What's the snow map look like with this latest run?