First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago. 

Your area is probably the most interesting of anyone on the forum.  That southern Middlesex County zone has been consistently modeled as the battle ground on all guidance.  Like could certainly be 8-12" of paste, or like 2-4" of 4:1 slop.

[moneypitmike]

Looks like qpf is getting reduced on the NAM (no suprise) and ICON.  At least in Maine. Alas.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks like qpf is getting reduced on the NAM and ICON.  At least in Maine. Alas.

These early runs have a been a little flaccid on dynamics. But some of these mesos were also pretty bonkers to begin with. The massive 1-1.5 QPf getting well inland never looked that realistic. 

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Your area is probably the most interesting of anyone on the forum.  That southern Middlesex County zone has been consistently modeled as the battle ground on all guidance.  Like could certainly be 8-12" of paste, or like 2-4" of 4:1 slop.

I’m hedging on the lower end here at the moment. I’m not convinced of some of these rates but we’ll see. If we can get a temporary bombing low scenario which isn’t impossible for a few hours, then we might be able to rip if we stay on the cold side. 
 

Id feel a lot better on winter hill, lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

31 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Latest (01z) NWS Blend.

 

Sane and realistic. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m hedging on the lower end here at the moment. I’m not convinced of some of these rates but we’ll see. If we can get a temporary bombing low scenario which isn’t impossible for a few hours, then we might be able to rip if we stay on the cold side. 
 

Id feel a lot better on winter hill, lol

Elevation at that same latitude would certainly be favored.  What a legendary snow spot Winter Hill is… decades of wins in winter events (proven on the forums) compared to surrounding areas.

Hopefully it can go isothermal paste for your current spot.  How many times is “the Pike” the boundary zone over the years?  Could be another one.

[TheSnowman]

57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wagons south

Ahhhhh from Totally Screwing RI to…. Totally Screwing RI?  Ya.  Same Picture to me.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Elevation at that same latitude would certainly be favored.  What a legendary snow spot Winter Hill is… decades of wins in winter events (proven on the forums) compared to surrounding areas.

Hopefully it can go isothermal paste for your current spot.  How many times is “the Pike” the boundary zone over the years?  Could be another one.

It's amazing how the two E to W  highways (Pike and RT2) are often viable dividing lines wrt frozen precip in winter storms with marginal temp profiles. 

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Elevation at that same latitude would certainly be favored.  What a legendary snow spot Winter Hill is… decades of wins in winter events (proven on the forums) compared to surrounding areas.

Hopefully it can go isothermal paste for your current spot.  How many times is “the Pike” the boundary zone over the years?  Could be another one.

This area is pretty often on the correct side of the “495 gradient” despite being a little inside 495. But so many times I’ve seen huge gradients like 2 towns east. But you do get these events sometimes where it’s really more like ORH is the line…the lower part of the city even might be on the warm side of the gradient. This happened during the ice storm in 2008. Also during the March 2023 Firehose event. Lower elevations literally had 5” of slop and it was like 15” on winter hill and then 2 feet another 5 miles NW. granted, that was the most extreme I’ve seen. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS looks just a smidge colder near here than 18z but at this point it’s noise unless it does it again another couple of cycles. 

[radarman]

28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's amazing how the two E to W  highways (Pike and RT2) are often viable dividing lines wrt frozen precip in winter storms with marginal temp profiles. 

NOP usually means rain in the lowlands up to Rt 2

[powderfreak]

Just rots over 495.

[MarkO]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This area is pretty often on the correct side of the “495 gradient” despite being a little inside 495. But so many times I’ve seen huge gradients like 2 towns east. But you do get these events sometimes where it’s really more like ORH is the line…the lower part of the city even might be on the warm side of the gradient. This happened during the ice storm in 2008. Also during the March 2023 Firehose event. Lower elevations literally had 5” of slop and it was like 15” on winter hill and then 2 feet another 5 miles NW. granted, that was the most extreme I’ve seen. 

495 does seem to be the cutoff for many storms. Growing up a mile from the ocean in Peabody, we were often on the wet side of storms, but I couldn't tell you how many storms were mainly white in Lowell (including the 2008 ice storm) where it was just rain only a few miles SE of here. Once again, it seems like 495 will be where the R/S line is. I think Ray will do much better in Methuen than his old place in Wilmington.