First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago. 

Your area is probably the most interesting of anyone on the forum.  That southern Middlesex County zone has been consistently modeled as the battle ground on all guidance.  Like could certainly be 8-12" of paste, or like 2-4" of 4:1 slop.

[moneypitmike]

Looks like qpf is getting reduced on the NAM (no suprise) and ICON.  At least in Maine. Alas.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks like qpf is getting reduced on the NAM and ICON.  At least in Maine. Alas.

These early runs have a been a little flaccid on dynamics. But some of these mesos were also pretty bonkers to begin with. The massive 1-1.5 QPf getting well inland never looked that realistic. 

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Your area is probably the most interesting of anyone on the forum.  That southern Middlesex County zone has been consistently modeled as the battle ground on all guidance.  Like could certainly be 8-12" of paste, or like 2-4" of 4:1 slop.

I’m hedging on the lower end here at the moment. I’m not convinced of some of these rates but we’ll see. If we can get a temporary bombing low scenario which isn’t impossible for a few hours, then we might be able to rip if we stay on the cold side. 
 

Id feel a lot better on winter hill, lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

31 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Latest (01z) NWS Blend.

 

Sane and realistic. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m hedging on the lower end here at the moment. I’m not convinced of some of these rates but we’ll see. If we can get a temporary bombing low scenario which isn’t impossible for a few hours, then we might be able to rip if we stay on the cold side. 
 

Id feel a lot better on winter hill, lol

Elevation at that same latitude would certainly be favored.  What a legendary snow spot Winter Hill is… decades of wins in winter events (proven on the forums) compared to surrounding areas.

Hopefully it can go isothermal paste for your current spot.  How many times is “the Pike” the boundary zone over the years?  Could be another one.

[TheSnowman]

57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wagons south

Ahhhhh from Totally Screwing RI to…. Totally Screwing RI?  Ya.  Same Picture to me.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Elevation at that same latitude would certainly be favored.  What a legendary snow spot Winter Hill is… decades of wins in winter events (proven on the forums) compared to surrounding areas.

Hopefully it can go isothermal paste for your current spot.  How many times is “the Pike” the boundary zone over the years?  Could be another one.

It's amazing how the two E to W  highways (Pike and RT2) are often viable dividing lines wrt frozen precip in winter storms with marginal temp profiles.