First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[ORH_wxman]

Here’s the meat of the storm with the real rates on the 00z euro….paste zone is prob more like SE MA to interior SE CT on that look…interior MA to interior N CT is prob a degree or two cold enough to not be too pasty 

 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No it wound be like 28-30F for you. Not really pasty. Maybe for a brief time early on. 

I tried to tell him…but he’s got a paste obsession.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I tried to tell him…but he’s got a paste obsession.  

Bit too much of this growing up.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s the meat of the storm with the real rates on the 00z euro….paste zone is prob more like SE MA to interior SE CT on that look…interior MA to interior N CT is prob a degree or two cold enough to not be too pasty 

 

Could be a grid collapser near Foxboro on that look. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The thing is, if you amped the euro solution from 00z just a bit more, then you and me would prob see a lot more paste, Kevin since we’d be closer to 0C from like 900mb to surface. But if it’s more like -2C then it’s gonna be more powdery. 
 

 

My gut says that’s closer to reality . SE ridge is watching 

[ROOSTA]

Storms bring out the "fruits"

Only speaking for myself.

Hope y'all get buried.

I'm close to being up and running. A little piece of property, a tin box, right in the middle of the forest. Can't believe fiber internet!

[WxWatcher007]

48 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The s/w starts coming ashore around 12z. I think it’ll be more into the RAOB network for the 00z runs…if you’re into believing in that sorta thing in this day and age in weather modeling.

Anyway, that s/w has been digging into the SW and over the 4 corners region before coming out into the midwest. Over the last day or so there’s been another weaker northern piece that has been working in over the midwest. On most runs they’ve been lockstep and the system has been able to amplify some as it reaches our region. They seem a little more disjointed on the 6z euro…either it’s getting out ahead of the main s/w or the main one is lagging behind a bit. Either way it seems to be flattening the flow and not allowing the main s/w to amplify much and the whole thing remains more positively tilted as it reaches us. The end result is a much weaker/south system. Here’s the last 4 runs of H5 from the euro valid 3z Wed. 

 

That gives me flashbacks to last season, where it seemed like something always destructively interfered with any sw trying to amplify. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s the meat of the storm with the real rates on the 00z euro….paste zone is prob more like SE MA to interior SE CT on that look…interior MA to interior N CT is prob a degree or two cold enough to not be too pasty 

 

Grid collapsed for Raynham and Easton on the euro 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That gives me flashbacks to last season, where it seemed like something always destructively interfered with any sw trying to amplify. 

Every time I see a trough off San Diego something always gets effed up. 

[dryslot]

56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Here’s what I was eyeing from the 6z run out west

In the past, Euro would bury that vort and lag it coming out of the SW, Not saying that's the case on this one, If i had to make an preliminary early forecast based on what modeling has right now, I would favor something a bit Weaker, Flatter, A bit SE and progressive for the track.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Today’s runs probably track it over my head. 

 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

God NAMMIT!

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Thats crappy even here.. but its the 84hr NAM

[Damage In Tolland]

The SE ridge is a problem 

[ORH_wxman]

Meanwhile the ARW is so flat there’s basically no storm. 

[radarman]

Not shocked.  Question is if this the furthest run NW we see or if it just keeps ticking warmer.

[moneypitmike]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be a grid collapser near Foxboro on that look. 

 

How about Taunton?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Not shocked.  Question is if this the furthest run NW we see or if it just keeps ticking warmer.

I think we have a pretty good idea 

[Kitz Craver]

I think it ends up more progressive… 

[dryslot]

Nam zoinked is always entertaining.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we have a pretty good idea 

We do? Enlighten us...

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

How about Taunton?

I don’t expect much at all there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

We do? Enlighten us...

More GFS like than Euro

[das]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Go back to when the Euro was a stud…the thing would hone in, and hold a solution and pretty much take it to the goal line most of the time. They changed something after that(supposedly improving it), and that was the end..it’s never been the same.  And every upgrade since is worse and worse. They F’ed it up plain and simple.  They tried to fix it, when it wasn’t broken. And that’s that. 

Sorry, the data just does not bear this out.  The steady progression of model fidelity and accuracy continues and will actually start another upward spike as AI-based models are integrated with physics-based models. 

 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nam zoinked is always entertaining.

Yeah it really liked that 2nd s/w dropping out of Canada and phased it right in.

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

More GFS like than Euro

So... I'm still not in the GFS camp... But, I have noticed it settling back over the last few runs. In the end.. I think the middle ground will have us ( everyone 84 on north ) more wintry than rain. The question remains.... Will it stay predominantly snow or be more of a mix. TBH.. I'd be happy even if it is a mix over rain. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah it really liked that 2nd s/w dropping out of Canada and phased it right in.

That will be the question going forward i guess, Do they stay separate? Or do we get a partial or full phase.

[radarman]

5 minutes ago, das said:

Sorry, the data just does not bear this out.  The steady progression of model fidelity and accuracy continues and will actually start another upward spike as AI-based models are integrated with physics-based models. 

 

It would be great to window that over the northeast US and limit it to known winter precip events. 

Yes it's an IMBY interest but not just as a weenie... in terms of weighted impact those are the highest value runs.

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

12z ICON was close to you too.

[bristolri_wx]

Hard for me to get excited about this storm for anyone in New England just yet.  We are still a couple of days from the southern component of this storm from forming, and there's still three different camps of thought on how it develops and tracks.

I feel like Sunday morning is when we will get some consensus, when we start to get into the range of the high-res models sorting things out.  That being said I feel like there's more of a chance of this storm being suppressed and progressive and missing most of the area instead of it being overly amped and flooding New England with cold rain.  I don't think the SE ridge is going to be the main influence on this storm...