Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mimillman]

At least the NW flow had some dusters every once in a while. This is just a train wreck 

[nvck]

Dismal near-term look, and that valentine's day storm that was looking promising for a few runs has trended away. let's fast forward to the 19th 

[DocATL]

At least the NW flow had some dusters every once in a while. This is just a train wreck 

GFS gives us some beneficial rain at least. Something to hang your hat on. Nice thump for the northeast on the GFS.

[Chinook]

The AO index has been negative since about Christmas.

The AO index isn't calculated based off temperature anomalies, but look at this plot of 1000mb heights over the Arctic Ocean vs Europe. The official calculation of the AO is based on 1000mb height anomalies (close to S.L.P. anomalies,) projected onto a loading pattern and doing the calculus.  I would call it a very negative NAO, but the CPC values aren't so negative.

 

 

 

And 850mb temperature anomalies in Greenland vs Europe and the USA

 

 

[DocATL]

Virginia is for snow lovers.

[cyclone77]

I'll take the 300hr 12z GFS run pleez.

[mimillman]

Zzzzzzz

[Baum]

The great VD storm of 2026 has yet to show its face. 

[DocATL]

If only skipping ahead to late March weather could get us to spring early. Meanwhile, it is still winter in the northeast. Quite a respectable one for them so far.

[roardog]

I know everyone here just seems to have mood swings with each op model run but the look on the ensembles in late February doesn’t look bad to me at all. You have Canada filled with Arctic air, a -PNA and the seasonal warming in the south as we head toward March. The ingredients are there for interesting stuff IMO.

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, roardog said:

I know everyone here just seems to have mood swings with each op model run but the look on the ensembles in late February doesn’t look bad to me at all. You have Canada filled with Arctic air, a -PNA and the seasonal warming in the south as we head toward March. The ingredients are there for interesting stuff IMO.

Its been a fantastic winter for cold, snowfall, and snowcover. Just need the cherry on top (big storm). Would love to see that end of Feb or Mar.