Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mimillman]

At least the NW flow had some dusters every once in a while. This is just a train wreck 

[nvck]

Dismal near-term look, and that valentine's day storm that was looking promising for a few runs has trended away. let's fast forward to the 19th 

[DocATL]

At least the NW flow had some dusters every once in a while. This is just a train wreck 

GFS gives us some beneficial rain at least. Something to hang your hat on. Nice thump for the northeast on the GFS.

[Chinook]

The AO index has been negative since about Christmas.

The AO index isn't calculated based off temperature anomalies, but look at this plot of 1000mb heights over the Arctic Ocean vs Europe. The official calculation of the AO is based on 1000mb height anomalies (close to S.L.P. anomalies,) projected onto a loading pattern and doing the calculus.  I would call it a very negative NAO, but the CPC values aren't so negative.

 

 

 

And 850mb temperature anomalies in Greenland vs Europe and the USA