Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mimillman]

Looks like an angry Pacific and some soakers in our future 

[Cary67]

From LOT AFD:

Also have to point out a growing signal for a southwest-flow
synoptic scale cyclone somewhere east of the Rocky Mountains in
the February 11-14 timeframe, with both the GEFS/EPS already
favoring our area being on the warm side. Should a cyclone
actually develop and we end up on the warm side, could easily
envision forecast focus trending toward hydrology concerns
considering the frost depth of just deeper than 13 inches at our
office isn`t going to vanish anytime soon.

[DocATL]

https://x.com/nilwxreports/status/2018333193288434115?s=46

Finally we get a break!

[BeastFromTheEast]

Sun angle concerns right around the corner as well! Have about a 3 week window here to cash in on a big-dog and then it’s on to spring.  

[Powerball]

Definitely highly skeptical of the current projections beyond the 7 day period with a supposed PV stretch (some are calling it a SSW event, but that's such an overused term and not really accurate) happening...

[A-L-E-K]

pure zzzzzs

[DocATL]

We’re gonna Zzzzz our way to March, folks.

[Chicago Storm]

Definitely highly skeptical of the current projections beyond the 7 day period with a supposed PV stretch (some are calling it a SSW event, but that's such an overused term and not really accurate) happening...

I’d put the number around 50%, in terms of ENS showing an actual SSWE.

[TheClimateChanger]

Some light at the end of the tunnel, especially for our western friends.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Definitely highly skeptical of the current projections beyond the 7 day period with a supposed PV stretch (some are calling it a SSW event, but that's such an overused term and not really accurate) happening...

One thing I've come to learn, after considering it a dirty word following '14 and '18, is that not all SSWEs are created equal (as in, they don't always put the cold into our neck of the woods, which I'd be just fine with given the brutal stretch we're only just finally coming out of).

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

One thing I've come to learn, after considering it a dirty word following '14 and '18, is that not all SSWEs are created equal (as in, they don't always put the cold into our neck of the woods, which I'd be just fine with given the brutal stretch we're only just finally coming out of).

A lot of these PV Stretch / SSW events have been happening well into Met Spring as of late though, so the cold anomalies do end up eventually happening, but relative to average and thus haven't been all that cold.

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Some light at the end of the tunnel, especially for our western friends.

Light at the end of the tunnel? Are you fucking kidding me?