Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Powerball]

22 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Who enjoys deep winter? Unless there's snow falling, you have to be sick to enjoy this kinda cold. Unless you're a diehard snowboarder.

I see you ruffled some feathers with this question and triggered an individual who's seeking attention (won't name names...).

But that person's issues aside, people like what they like and hate what they hate. It is what it is  

I will say, warm weather states have been the fastest growing part of the US for over 4 decades with no signs of slowing down (many southern cities/metro have already or soon will surpass a lot of cold northern cities/metros in population) so there's actually a lot more people than you think in the real world that can also do without "deep winter." Just have to remind yourself, weather forums can be a bit of an echo chamber that isn't always reflective of the majority opinion.

[RogueWaves]

Those that are skilled in pattern recognition (I am not) plus the repeating winter pattern(s) are keying-in on the period from approximately February 10th and the two weeks after as a recurrence of the first half of December. Aka that nice CO Low that hammered IA, IL and some surrounding states followed by sustained BN temp regime. This season has seriously mimicked last winter in many ways and last season I had my biggest storms on 2/8 and again 2/12-13. The 2/15-16 sytem for which I was under a WATCH for one shift, ended-up sliding SE and nailing TOR. That box has already been checked this winter with last weekend's major. I would not snooze on this upcoming period, tho p'sure the bulk stay south of mby yet again.

[RogueWaves]

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I see you ruffled some feathers with this questions and triggered an individual who's seeking attention (won't name names...).

But that person's issues aside, people like what they like and hate what they hate. It is what it is  

I will say, warm weather states have been the fastest growing part of the US for over 4 decades with no signs of slowing down (many southern cities/metro have already or soon will surpass a lot of cold northern cities/metros in population) so there's actually a lot more people than you'd think in the real world that can also do without "deep winter." Just have to remind yourself, weather forums can be a bit of an echo chamber that isn't always reflective of the majority opinion.

off topic "banter" but well put. -19 at work this morning up in Grayling. I enjoy every facet of winter but the bottom of my list is extreme cold if it lasts more than one night, lol. As with extreme heat, the cumulative effects are real. My NMI native co-workers took a walk in those temps this morning. When I worked in Ft. Worth summer of 2010 it was 105 at lunch but them boys from India couldn't get out on the hot black parking lot quick enough for their walk-about. Some are ok with extremes, I am not one of them. Can't even imagine wintering in Alaska

[Stevo6899]

7 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’ll bite.

I enjoy it immensely. I would much rather work outside in a week of -10/+10 temps then 90+ with 70+ dews. I’m outside 80% of the time with my job so I have experience in all weather Minnesota can throw at me. I’m a diehard skier too so that’s an added reason I love deep winter. I’m ready for a pattern shakeup so we can get some fresh snow. There has only been one calendar day snowfall of 1” this month at MSP. 
 

I think it’s kinda strange how much you bitch and moan about the weather in a region you don’t frequently visit, but hey it’s a free country. 

Different strokes. Its different if you gotta work in it and have no choice. These kinda temps suck cause most of the time we're in suppression city. Very rarely do we get a storm like we just had with arctic temps in place. Ì go to Florida in jan and Feb to escape this kinda cold but live in the region the rest of the year.

[Stevo6899]

3 hours ago, Powerball said:

I see you ruffled some feathers with this question and triggered an individual who's seeking attention (won't name names...).

But that person's issues aside, people like what they like and hate what they hate. It is what it is  

I will say, warm weather states have been the fastest growing part of the US for over 4 decades with no signs of slowing down (many southern cities/metro have already or soon will surpass a lot of cold northern cities/metros in population) so there's actually a lot more people than yo think in the real world that can also do without "deep winter." Just have to remind yourself, weather forums can be a bit of an echo chamber that isn't always reflective of the majority opinion.

Yea obviously there's alot of extreme weather weenies on here, including myself, so it makes sense some enjoy deep winter. Deep down I don't think anyone really enjoys walking outside in single digits.

[A-L-E-K]

extended still showing some glimmers of interest, next week+ still rock solid zzzzzs

[DocATL]

At least we get some good looks even if they fade away in the near term. Can’t wait for a warm April.


.

[hawkeye_wx]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended still showing some glimmers of interest, next week+ still rock solid zzzzzs

We are at least seeing the western ridge finally breaking down on the ensembles toward mid month.  That is a very necessary first step.

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’ll bite.

I enjoy it immensely. I would much rather work outside in a week of -10/+10 temps then 90+ with 70+ dews. I’m outside 80% of the time with my job so I have experience in all weather Minnesota can throw at me. I’m a diehard skier too so that’s an added reason I love deep winter. I’m ready for a pattern shakeup so we can get some fresh snow. There has only been one calendar day snowfall of 1” this month at MSP. 
 

I think it’s kinda strange how much you bitch and moan about the weather in a region you don’t frequently visit, but hey it’s a free country. 

My cousin is a mailman. He is not a weather enthusiast at all really, though he does more or less like the 4 seasons. He has no overall preference of winter or summer (though Id give the lean towards summer as hes a baseball fanatic) and he says absolutely without a doubt if he had to choose between the bitter cold and extreme heat/humidity, hed take the cold all day every day.

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, Powerball said:

I see you ruffled some feathers with this question and triggered an individual who's seeking attention (won't name names...).

But that person's issues aside, people like what they like and hate what they hate. It is what it is  

I will say, warm weather states have been the fastest growing part of the US for over 4 decades with no signs of slowing down (many southern cities/metro have already or soon will surpass a lot of cold northern cities/metros in population) so there's actually a lot more people than you think in the real world that can also do without "deep winter." Just have to remind yourself, weather forums can be a bit of an echo chamber that isn't always reflective of the majority opinion.

No doubt southern cities are growing and no doubt that tons of people hate winter. To say "no one" likes deep winter is wrong. You think we are sick, go to the UP and watch people snowmobile for 6 months and then STILL get mad when snow melts in April lol. 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea obviously there's alot of extreme weather weenies on here, including myself, so it makes sense some enjoy deep winter. Deep down I don't think anyone really enjoys walking outside in single digits.

IF you dress properly, walking in the single digits is invigorating. In the worst of heat/humidity you can be naked with a bottle of water and its still miserable. Different strokes.

[DocATL]

No doubt southern cities are growing and no doubt that tons of people hate winter. To say "no one" likes deep winter is wrong. You think we are sick, go to the UP and watch people snowmobile for 6 months and then STILL get mad when snow melts in April lol. 

The key word there is “snow”.

[cyclone77]

38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

IF you dress properly, walking in the single digits is invigorating. In the worst of heat/humidity you can be naked with a bottle of water and its still miserable. Different strokes.

That's when you jump in the pool.

[Brian D]

Looking at really long range for next winter. This is what it's looking like to me atm.

Dec 2026 - mixed pattern with a cold start, and finish to the month (+/- near avg)

Jan 2027 - most of the month looks rather cold until the last week or so (well below avg)

Feb 2027 - mixed pattern with a cold ending (near/above avg)

Should be another interesting winter  

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

IF you dress properly, walking in the single digits is invigorating. In the worst of heat/humidity you can be naked with a bottle of water and its still miserable. Different strokes.

Also I've had 3 back surgeries and Im at that age now where warmth just makes the body feel better. Im athletic and prefer the warmth. Nothing wrong with liking winter but unless you're into winter sports, I just can't relate to someone who enjoys 15 degrees with negative wind chills with no snow.

Also don't worry about cluttering the thread up. Its common knowledge/running joke us michiganders always end up taking over with Michigan snow talk. I think some may even enjoy the cold over having to read our shit.

 

[DocATL]

Some classic near misses, dying energy, and systems finding life to our east. But hope springs eternal.

[michsnowfreak]

Next Friday has my interest. Its a week away but all models amd ensembles have some sort of clipper type system ahead of more cold.

[sbnwx85]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Next Friday has my interest. Its a week away but all models amd ensembles have some sort of clipper type system ahead of more cold.

I was about to say. The clipper and following lake-effect potential has piqued my interest... hopefully, slightly moderating temps will slow ice coverage on the lake.

[Baum]

Winter doldrums week incoming. Days on end with clouds and 20’s. Of course, that’ll feel like spring given the past two weeks.

[DocATL]

GFS has a good looking pattern coming up for places east of the Mississippi…up and down the coast. For us it’s an @A-L-E-K special.

[nvck]

yeah, was gonna say, thurs/fri looks like the most interesting thing in the next week. potential for a few inches up here, especially if the gfs gives way to the euro

[A-L-E-K]

Late week wave looking strongish as far as nw flow systems go, some miss north stink obv imby

[RogueWaves]

8 hours ago, nvck said:

yeah, was gonna say, thurs/fri looks like the most interesting thing in the next week. potential for a few inches up here, especially if the gfs gives way to the euro

Potentially the biggest thing for us in 2-3 wks. Pretty amazed that I'm 70% AN to date on mere clippers with PAC moisture and some minor lake enhancement. Imagine if we actually got gulf moisture up here. Well, we did back on the 9th with a 50F rainer (SMDH). Despite being way ahead in snowfall to date, I checked my records and Jan '14 delivered 87% of what I have for the last 3 mos this season. And we were just hitting our stride across SMI 12 yrs ago. That's how wild that ride was.

[roardog]

4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Potentially the biggest thing for us in 2-3 wks. Pretty amazed that I'm 70% AN to date on mere clippers with PAC moisture and some minor lake enhancement. Imagine if we actually got gulf moisture up here. Well, we did back on the 9th with a 50F rainer (SMDH). Despite being way ahead in snowfall to date, I checked my records and Jan '14 delivered 87% of what I have for the last 3 mos this season. And we were just hitting our stride across SMI 12 yrs ago. That's how wild that ride was.

It really is tough to get the right combination of cold and gulf moisture together consistently. 

[mimillman]

Torch incoming 

[Stevo6899]

46 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Torch incoming 

Def rainstorm for all of us coming around vday. Weeks of below avg cold then rain from bomb cyclone (cnn) tracking through msp. How we roll.

[Spartman]

https://x.com/judah47/status/2017978663052947770

[Chicago Storm]

Torch incoming 

window for better/bigger storm potential incoming.