Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[beavis1729]

9 hours ago, frostfern said:

So you would be happy with 3 one inch dusters in December followed by two months of arctic CAD and maybe a duster or two to offset sublimation?  Just keep a steady 3 inches with zero melting.  Stay below 15F so no melting on roads or dirty looking snow.

Yep. Of course I’d prefer more snow, but beggars can’t be choosers. 

I go to northern WI a few times each winter for snowmobiling and relaxing. That’s my ideal climate - every winter, you can count on frozen lakes and ponds, plus constant snow cover for 2+ months…it’s just a matter of how much. And they don’t salt the roads to death. Plus, the summers are nice - warm, but not overly hot/humid. 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzzz

[Nelson]

Doesn't look like we are going to shake this northwest flow (west ridge) any time soon

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z GFS is disgusting. Endless CAD through the end of the run. Although *at least* the last 200 hours of each run of that model are a total crapshoot, I'd really prefer a different look at some point.

[Nelson]

All of the ensembles are pretty disheartening for any type of change away from the position of that western ridge - That look has been so f'ing persistent...

[DocATL]

12Z GFS is disgusting. Endless CAD through the end of the run. Although *at least* the last 200 hours of each run of that model are a total crapshoot, I'd really prefer a different look at some point.

I believe the GFS after its coup this weekend. Probably a perilous thing to do but we’ll see.


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[DocATL]

Clipper parade?


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[Malacka11]

Back to regularly scheduled low stakes programming 

[McHenrySnow]

23 hours ago, DocATL said:

I believe the GFS after its coup this weekend. Probably a perilous thing to do but we’ll see.


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What coup?! The GFS failed spectacularly. 

[ILSNOW]

23 hours ago, DocATL said:

I believe the GFS after its coup this weekend. Probably a perilous thing to do but we’ll see.


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GFS had no snow in chicago where over 6 inches of lake induced/lake effect has happened so far.

[DocATL]

Yeah I didn’t think we’d do as well as we did overnight. It failed. I spoke way too soon.


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[cyclone77]

Exciting times ahead.  Luckily that 0.4" we received should satisfy snow lovers around here for the next 2+ weeks.

 

[madwx]

Definitely feels like we saw that map a lot last year too

[RCNYILWX]

Regardless of what the long range stuff shows, maybe the 2015 Superbowl rematch is a good omen...

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[Chicago916]

So we do this LE again end of week? Looks favorable this side of the lake again interestingly

[A-L-E-K]

Insane east coast pattern 

[Baum]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Insane east coast pattern 

They’ve really only had one storm to speak of. Boston been getting hit but other areas south of there been pretty tame until this event. Which even that probably similar to our Thanksgiving weekend storm.

[mimillman]

7 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

So we do this LE again end of week? Looks favorable this side of the lake again interestingly

I thought this set up typically favors N Central IN

[Baum]

8 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

So we do this LE again end of week? Looks favorable this side of the lake again interestingly

BEYOND THIS, THE SIGNAL FOR AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH CUTTING   SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO GROW IN   THE GUIDANCE SUITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS   OCCURRING AS ANOTHER 1050S MB ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD   ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND   OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EVIDENT FROM ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT   THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH ICE COVER LIKELY TO EXPAND WITH TIME,   IT'S A BIT UNCLEAR HOW THIS MIGHT IMPACT SURFACE FLUXES,   ALTHOUGH LATEST GLERL ICE FORECASTS INDICATE ICE COVERAGE LIKELY   WON'T EXTEND BEYOND 15-20 MILES, WITH A WIDE OPEN FETCH   AVAILABLE ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. WITH THE COLDER LAKE   TEMPERATURES, THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT OFF THE CHARTS, BUT   CERTAINLY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR INTENSE LAKE EFFECT WITH   SURFACE-850 DELTA TS NEAR 20 C AND LAKE-INDUCED ELS JUST UNDER   9-10 KFT. WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE TO MAKE   ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, BUT THIS WILL   BE A PERIOD TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.