aldie 22 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Ji said: It starts too late so it dosent take advantage of colder air aloft Euro never snowed for you anyway Everyone jinxed it with the congrats Bob chill bs Go shopping for cookies with your wife you're starting to crack 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period. 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period.Webber nailed it…..Back in November 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Everyone must be at the mall picking up last minute Christmas gifts lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 11 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Everyone must be at the mall picking up last minute Christmas gifts lol Not a lot of love for ice Friday, but that does seem to be a legitimate threat, especially for favored northern spots. Not exactly boring but not interesting now either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period. Latest GFS Ext runs have a -EPO with a west based -NAO 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, CAPE said: Latest GFS Ext runs have a -EPO with a west based -NAO talk to me dirty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, bncho said: talk to me dirty Seems like I just did. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, bncho said: talk to me dirty If that ain't dirty enough for you, you'll need to talk to @ravensrule. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period. 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GFS Ext runs have a -EPO with a west based -NAO 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If that ain't dirty enough for you, you'll need to talk to @ravensrule. Don’t encourage RR please 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GFS Ext runs have a -EPO with a west based -NAO I believe someone once said that was atmospherically impossible . Seriously though I try not to get to down when the extended products look bad, so it seems I should also not get excited when they show good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I predict today's 12z gfs goes back to tease mode 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 41 minutes ago, mappy said: Don’t encourage RR please I only follow your encouragement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Eric Weeb is more volatile than the 384hr GFS lol 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I've been mostly quiet lately...some of that is how busy I've been, some is that I've lost interest in digging into 300 hour stuff and my life is better for it. But you all know I am not shy about calling time of death on a winter around xmas. I've done it before when it really does look bad. Even a couple days ago when the models looked bad for the next couple weeks I never got the sense this was a total dud winter. There are some things that are typical of that... an impending +++AO combined with a strong broad mid latitude central pacific ridge combined with a natural or cold enso. If you see those 3 things across long range guidance heading towards New Years...it's game over. Maybe we get a fluke one off thing but for the most part the winter is dead on arrival. We have not seen that this year. Not at all. The pacific ridge is displaced poleward. The AO has been variable with NAO help at times. These are not the hallmarks of a total dud winter. We will probably get chances. Maybe we get lucky. Maybe not. But there will be things to track this winter. I feel confident in that. I am not saying it's going to be a great winter...or even a good one (although maybe if we do get lucky, it only takes one big storm) but we will have chances. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I've been mostly quiet lately...some of that is how busy I've been, some is that I've lost interest in digging into 300 hour stuff and my life is better for it. But you all know I am not shy about calling time of death on a winter around xmas. I've done it before when it really does look bad. Even a couple days ago when the models looked bad for the next couple weeks I never got the sense this was a total dud winter. There are some things that are typical of that... an impending +++AO combined with a strong broad mid latitude central pacific ridge combined with a natural or cold enso. If you see those 3 things across long range guidance heading towards New Years...it's game over. Maybe we get a fluke one off thing but for the most part the winter is dead on arrival. We have not seen that this year. Not at all. The pacific ridge is displaced poleward. The AO has been variable with NAO help at times. These are not the hallmarks of a total dud winter. We will probably get chances. Maybe we get lucky. Maybe not. But there will be things to track this winter. I feel confident in that. I am not saying it's going to be a great winter...or even a good one (although maybe if we do get lucky, it only takes one big storm) but we will have chances. Honestly, probably the best news we could hear right now. Hell, half the fun is tracking, so as long as we have that, a win or two, i will be pleased. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I've been mostly quiet lately...some of that is how busy I've been, some is that I've lost interest in digging into 300 hour stuff and my life is better for it. But you all know I am not shy about calling time of death on a winter around xmas. I've done it before when it really does look bad. Even a couple days ago when the models looked bad for the next couple weeks I never got the sense this was a total dud winter. There are some things that are typical of that... an impending +++AO combined with a strong broad mid latitude central pacific ridge combined with a natural or cold enso. If you see those 3 things across long range guidance heading towards New Years...it's game over. Maybe we get a fluke one off thing but for the most part the winter is dead on arrival. We have not seen that this year. Not at all. The pacific ridge is displaced poleward. The AO has been variable with NAO help at times. These are not the hallmarks of a total dud winter. We will probably get chances. Maybe we get lucky. Maybe not. But there will be things to track this winter. I feel confident in that. I am not saying it's going to be a great winter...or even a good one (although maybe if we do get lucky, it only takes one big storm) but we will have chances. I agree with this sentiment. We'll have good and bad windows (we're in the middle of a bad one right now) in this volatile winter. Expect the unexpected seems to be the theme here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z gfs is rough sailing for central and northern Md. lot of precip and cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 22 minutes ago, bncho said: Eric Weeb is more volatile than the 384hr GFS lol Not trying to become his self-appointed defender him but I really don't think he's all that inconsistent in general. As some of you said I think that recent post cancelling winter may have been a bad idea unduly influenced by his desire to troll the east coast weenies. I wouldn't recommend ignoring him going forward. Also if (and I think it's a big if) and the current trends continue into a legitimately good pattern, it will be a complete collapse of Mid/Long range guidance almost across the board. A lot of people will be surprised. We're used to this happening in the opposite direction (see Feb 2023) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Ok then gfs lol 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: That's a day to hunker down and eat leftovers. if that holds. The infamous Boxing Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: I predict today's 12z gfs goes back to tease mode nice call 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ok then gfs lol I can live with that for now with the expectations of future improvements. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: I predict today's 12z gfs goes back to tease mode lol you were right. I will say - the 12k nam was gonna have a similar result. Really need the euro to come back south. It’s been heading the wrong direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The gfs is 2” of sleet in DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, T. August said: The gfs is 2” of sleet in DC sleet nuke verbatim—if i had to measure an additional 2" of technically snow then i guess i would take this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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