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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

yoda

By yoda,
in Mid Atlantic

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paulythegun
paulythegun
WxUSAF
WxUSAF

Gfs Friday clipper looks great and then  falls the F apart, but not before giving VA some much deserved snow! 

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest GFS Ext runs have a -EPO with a west based -NAO

I believe someone once said that was atmospherically impossible :).  Seriously though I try not to get to down when the extended products look bad, so it seems I should also not get excited when they show good.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I've been mostly quiet lately...some of that is how busy I've been, some is that I've lost interest in digging into 300 hour stuff and my life is better for it.  But you all know I am not shy about calling time of death on a winter around xmas.  I've done it before when it really does look bad.  Even a couple days ago when the models looked bad for the next couple weeks I never got the sense this was a total dud winter.  There are some things that are typical of that... an impending +++AO combined with a strong broad mid latitude central pacific ridge combined with a natural or cold enso.  If you see those 3 things across long range guidance heading towards New Years...it's game over.  Maybe we get a fluke one off thing but for the most part the winter is dead on arrival.   We have not seen that this year.  Not at all.  

The pacific ridge is displaced poleward.  The AO has been variable with NAO help at times.  These are not the hallmarks of a total dud winter.  We will probably get chances.  Maybe we get lucky.  Maybe not.  But there will be things to track this winter.  I feel confident in that.  I am not saying it's going to be a great winter...or even a good one (although maybe if we do get lucky, it only takes one big storm) but we will have chances.  

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AlexD1990

AlexD1990

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've been mostly quiet lately...some of that is how busy I've been, some is that I've lost interest in digging into 300 hour stuff and my life is better for it.  But you all know I am not shy about calling time of death on a winter around xmas.  I've done it before when it really does look bad.  Even a couple days ago when the models looked bad for the next couple weeks I never got the sense this was a total dud winter.  There are some things that are typical of that... an impending +++AO combined with a strong broad mid latitude central pacific ridge combined with a natural or cold enso.  If you see those 3 things across long range guidance heading towards New Years...it's game over.  Maybe we get a fluke one off thing but for the most part the winter is dead on arrival.   We have not seen that this year.  Not at all.  

The pacific ridge is displaced poleward.  The AO has been variable with NAO help at times.  These are not the hallmarks of a total dud winter.  We will probably get chances.  Maybe we get lucky.  Maybe not.  But there will be things to track this winter.  I feel confident in that.  I am not saying it's going to be a great winter...or even a good one (although maybe if we do get lucky, it only takes one big storm) but we will have chances.  

Honestly, probably the best news we could hear right now. Hell, half the fun is tracking, so as long as we have that, a win or two, i will be pleased.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've been mostly quiet lately...some of that is how busy I've been, some is that I've lost interest in digging into 300 hour stuff and my life is better for it.  But you all know I am not shy about calling time of death on a winter around xmas.  I've done it before when it really does look bad.  Even a couple days ago when the models looked bad for the next couple weeks I never got the sense this was a total dud winter.  There are some things that are typical of that... an impending +++AO combined with a strong broad mid latitude central pacific ridge combined with a natural or cold enso.  If you see those 3 things across long range guidance heading towards New Years...it's game over.  Maybe we get a fluke one off thing but for the most part the winter is dead on arrival.   We have not seen that this year.  Not at all.  

The pacific ridge is displaced poleward.  The AO has been variable with NAO help at times.  These are not the hallmarks of a total dud winter.  We will probably get chances.  Maybe we get lucky.  Maybe not.  But there will be things to track this winter.  I feel confident in that.  I am not saying it's going to be a great winter...or even a good one (although maybe if we do get lucky, it only takes one big storm) but we will have chances.  

I agree with this sentiment. We'll have good and bad windows (we're in the middle of a bad one right now) in this volatile winter. Expect the unexpected seems to be the theme here.

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, bncho said:

Eric Weeb is more volatile than the 384hr GFS lol

Not trying to become his self-appointed defender him but I really don't think he's all that inconsistent in general.  As some of you said I think that recent post cancelling winter may have been a bad idea unduly influenced by his desire to troll the east coast weenies.  I wouldn't recommend ignoring him going forward.  Also if (and I think it's a big if) and the current trends continue into a legitimately good pattern, it will be a complete collapse of Mid/Long range guidance almost across the board.  A lot of people will be surprised.  We're used to this happening in the opposite direction (see Feb 2023)

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