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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

yoda

By yoda,
in Mid Atlantic

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paulythegun
paulythegun
WxUSAF
WxUSAF

Gfs Friday clipper looks great and then  falls the F apart, but not before giving VA some much deserved snow! 

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
6z Euro came south some, but not far enough.  Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho.

Euro isn’t going to move 300 miles in one run but my guess is gfs is way too far south
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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted

The Euro is currently caving to the KING GFS for Augusta...............................   00z Euro had Augusta County at 62 for Christmas afternoon.  The 06z Euro drops that 62 to 56.......

Sterling NWS forecasters are at a loss. Later today, Sterling Thur thru Saturday likely to change significantly....

13.2 at 7 am.

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

I don’t think the models will know until the storm hits the coast and gets sampled better. Tomorrows NAM will be the first to show at 84hrs. Until then we just won’t know. Unless we see more birds flying north. But not northeast. That’s bad. If we see wooly caterpillars flying north that’s REALLY bad

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, H2O said:

I don’t think the models will know until the storm hits the coast and gets sampled better. Tomorrows NAM will be the first to show at 84hrs. Until then we just won’t know. Unless we see more birds flying north. But not northeast. That’s bad. If we see wooly caterpillars flying north that’s REALLY bad

Where's your red tag?

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS.  No support for operational run in the 5 day storm,

IMG_7030.png

Gefs have not been great with snowfall this year, and downright lousy at 96+ hrs. This threat may not workout for this forum, but that remains an accurate critique of the Gefs snowfall predictions this year.

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bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro came south some, but not far enough.  Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho.

I would say you are in a very good spot for something wintry. You have a decent chance at this one IMO.

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baltosquid

baltosquid

Posted
Posted

Such a strange threat. Just a massive south trend on the GFS out of nowhere for run after run after run and now it’s actually maybe getting other ops to move towards it? Would be an insane coup for it. Obviously I wish there was more ensemble support but at the same time, could it just be a situation where ens runs aren’t gonna sniff what an op is catching on to? One can hope…

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bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted

I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before.

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baltosquid

baltosquid

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bncho said:

I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before.

Yeah I mean at least there is a pretty simple path to understanding the sudden change. Fingers crossed we’ll be talking about how the GFS proved everyone wrong for a foot of snow by week’s end… 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

A couple mores ticks south for the seasonal trend. :lol:

Congrats @Bob Chill ?

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

didn't jan 3 2022 suddenly appear out of nowhere because of a block?

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Such a strange threat. Just a massive south trend on the GFS out of nowhere for run after run after run and now it’s actually maybe getting other ops to move towards it? Would be an insane coup for it. Obviously I wish there was more ensemble support but at the same time, could it just be a situation where ens runs aren’t gonna sniff what an op is catching on to? One can hope…

I get what you are saying but models have no impact on each other. The GFS is not "getting other ops to move towards it" - they don't talk and aren't interconnected. The only "trend" would be from id they are all in time figuring out the solution. 

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bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

Curious as to what your other analogs are for this setup—maybe it could provide more insight into possible outcomes.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

I got nothing imby for that event. Thanks for ruining my day. Merry Christmas nonetheless!

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JakkelWx

JakkelWx

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

TSSN reported with that storm. Numerous on the jan 3 CAPE storm thread around sunrise

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adelphi_sky

adelphi_sky

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

Stranger things seems to be the new norm. Like watching New Orleans almost get a foot of snow. lol That's too far south though. 

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