December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

6z Euro came south some, but not far enough.  Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho.

[Ji]

6z Euro came south some, but not far enough.  Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho.

Euro isn’t going to move 300 miles in one run but my guess is gfs is way too far south

[stormy]

The Euro is currently caving to the KING GFS for Augusta...............................   00z Euro had Augusta County at 62 for Christmas afternoon.  The 06z Euro drops that 62 to 56.......

Sterling NWS forecasters are at a loss. Later today, Sterling Thur thru Saturday likely to change significantly....

13.2 at 7 am.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS.  No support for operational run in the 5 day storm,

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS.  No support for operational run in the 5 day storm,

Still looks better than that 70 did yesterday lol

[stormy]

GEFS AI 1 pm Friday is 38 degrees.

[H2O]

I don’t think the models will know until the storm hits the coast and gets sampled better. Tomorrows NAM will be the first to show at 84hrs. Until then we just won’t know. Unless we see more birds flying north. But not northeast. That’s bad. If we see wooly caterpillars flying north that’s REALLY bad

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, H2O said:

I don’t think the models will know until the storm hits the coast and gets sampled better. Tomorrows NAM will be the first to show at 84hrs. Until then we just won’t know. Unless we see more birds flying north. But not northeast. That’s bad. If we see wooly caterpillars flying north that’s REALLY bad

Where's your red tag?

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS.  No support for operational run in the 5 day storm,

Gefs have not been great with snowfall this year, and downright lousy at 96+ hrs. This threat may not workout for this forum, but that remains an accurate critique of the Gefs snowfall predictions this year.

[dailylurker]

If the gfs is correct we could be having snow and ice while Kansas City is pushing 80. Blocking does such cool stuff. I hope it's real!

[bncho]

What the hell is the GFS? I said maybe it could tick south last night, but wow. Uncancelling the cancellation of winter now?

[bncho]

Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend.

 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro came south some, but not far enough.  Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho.

I would say you are in a very good spot for something wintry. You have a decent chance at this one IMO.

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, bncho said:

Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend.

 

A couple mores ticks south for the seasonal trend. 

Congrats @Bob Chill ?

[baltosquid]

Such a strange threat. Just a massive south trend on the GFS out of nowhere for run after run after run and now it’s actually maybe getting other ops to move towards it? Would be an insane coup for it. Obviously I wish there was more ensemble support but at the same time, could it just be a situation where ens runs aren’t gonna sniff what an op is catching on to? One can hope…

[winter_warlock]

06z GFS was a bit of a shock to me .. the 12z runs will be telling ..if the south trend continues .. it will be definitely something to watch!!! 

[bncho]

I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before.

[midatlanticweather]

33 minutes ago, bncho said:

Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend.

 

At this rate, tomorrow we will be saying congratulations NC! That is a serious south trend

 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before.

Yeah I mean at least there is a pretty simple path to understanding the sudden change. Fingers crossed we’ll be talking about how the GFS proved everyone wrong for a foot of snow by week’s end… 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

At this rate, tomorrow we will be saying congratulations NC! That is a serious south trend

 

how often we see rain in SW PA and snow in SE Delaware on the same map

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Nice shift southward on the 06z GFS. Also somewhat encouraging to see a 1030 mb high flex in the St. Lawrence River Valley.

[winter_warlock]

16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

At this rate, tomorrow we will be saying congratulations NC! That is a serious south trend

 

 Funny but. True!!!

[JakkelWx]

didn't jan 3 2022 suddenly appear out of nowhere because of a block?

[Bob Chill]

52 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

A couple mores ticks south for the seasonal trend. 

Congrats @Bob Chill ?

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

didn't jan 3 2022 suddenly appear out of nowhere because of a block?

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

[Kmlwx]

50 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Such a strange threat. Just a massive south trend on the GFS out of nowhere for run after run after run and now it’s actually maybe getting other ops to move towards it? Would be an insane coup for it. Obviously I wish there was more ensemble support but at the same time, could it just be a situation where ens runs aren’t gonna sniff what an op is catching on to? One can hope…

I get what you are saying but models have no impact on each other. The GFS is not "getting other ops to move towards it" - they don't talk and aren't interconnected. The only "trend" would be from id they are all in time figuring out the solution. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

Curious as to what your other analogs are for this setup—maybe it could provide more insight into possible outcomes.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

I got nothing imby for that event. Thanks for ruining my day. Merry Christmas nonetheless!

[JakkelWx]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

TSSN reported with that storm. Numerous on the jan 3 CAPE storm thread around sunrise

[adelphi_sky]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 

That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

Stranger things seems to be the new norm. Like watching New Orleans almost get a foot of snow. lol That's too far south though. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Stranger things seems to be the new norm. Like watching New Orleans almost get a foot of snow. lol That's too far south though. 

While we got more snow overall last season they actually had a larger single storm accumulation than we did.