mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6z Euro came south some, but not far enough. Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6z Euro came south some, but not far enough. Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho.Euro isn’t going to move 300 miles in one run but my guess is gfs is way too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The Euro is currently caving to the KING GFS for Augusta............................... 00z Euro had Augusta County at 62 for Christmas afternoon. The 06z Euro drops that 62 to 56....... Sterling NWS forecasters are at a loss. Later today, Sterling Thur thru Saturday likely to change significantly.... 13.2 at 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago WB 6Z GEFS. No support for operational run in the 5 day storm, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS. No support for operational run in the 5 day storm, Still looks better than that 70 did yesterday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GEFS AI 1 pm Friday is 38 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I don’t think the models will know until the storm hits the coast and gets sampled better. Tomorrows NAM will be the first to show at 84hrs. Until then we just won’t know. Unless we see more birds flying north. But not northeast. That’s bad. If we see wooly caterpillars flying north that’s REALLY bad 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, H2O said: I don’t think the models will know until the storm hits the coast and gets sampled better. Tomorrows NAM will be the first to show at 84hrs. Until then we just won’t know. Unless we see more birds flying north. But not northeast. That’s bad. If we see wooly caterpillars flying north that’s REALLY bad Where's your red tag? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 38 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS. No support for operational run in the 5 day storm, Gefs have not been great with snowfall this year, and downright lousy at 96+ hrs. This threat may not workout for this forum, but that remains an accurate critique of the Gefs snowfall predictions this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago If the gfs is correct we could be having snow and ice while Kansas City is pushing 80. Blocking does such cool stuff. I hope it's real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago What the hell is the GFS? I said maybe it could tick south last night, but wow. Uncancelling the cancellation of winter now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 6z Euro came south some, but not far enough. Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho. I would say you are in a very good spot for something wintry. You have a decent chance at this one IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, bncho said: Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend. A couple mores ticks south for the seasonal trend. Congrats @Bob Chill ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Such a strange threat. Just a massive south trend on the GFS out of nowhere for run after run after run and now it’s actually maybe getting other ops to move towards it? Would be an insane coup for it. Obviously I wish there was more ensemble support but at the same time, could it just be a situation where ens runs aren’t gonna sniff what an op is catching on to? One can hope… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 06z GFS was a bit of a shock to me .. the 12z runs will be telling ..if the south trend continues .. it will be definitely something to watch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago 33 minutes ago, bncho said: Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend. At this rate, tomorrow we will be saying congratulations NC! That is a serious south trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago 1 minute ago, bncho said: I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before. Yeah I mean at least there is a pretty simple path to understanding the sudden change. Fingers crossed we’ll be talking about how the GFS proved everyone wrong for a foot of snow by week’s end… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: At this rate, tomorrow we will be saying congratulations NC! That is a serious south trend how often we see rain in SW PA and snow in SE Delaware on the same map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago Nice shift southward on the 06z GFS. Also somewhat encouraging to see a 1030 mb high flex in the St. Lawrence River Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago 16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: At this rate, tomorrow we will be saying congratulations NC! That is a serious south trend Funny but. True!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago didn't jan 3 2022 suddenly appear out of nowhere because of a block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 52 minutes ago, Chris78 said: A couple mores ticks south for the seasonal trend. Congrats @Bob Chill ? Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. 12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: didn't jan 3 2022 suddenly appear out of nowhere because of a block? That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago 50 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Such a strange threat. Just a massive south trend on the GFS out of nowhere for run after run after run and now it’s actually maybe getting other ops to move towards it? Would be an insane coup for it. Obviously I wish there was more ensemble support but at the same time, could it just be a situation where ens runs aren’t gonna sniff what an op is catching on to? One can hope… I get what you are saying but models have no impact on each other. The GFS is not "getting other ops to move towards it" - they don't talk and aren't interconnected. The only "trend" would be from id they are all in time figuring out the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn Curious as to what your other analogs are for this setup—maybe it could provide more insight into possible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn I got nothing imby for that event. Thanks for ruining my day. Merry Christmas nonetheless! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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