December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone saw this, but worth a quick read regarding new NOAA modeling.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Even our brief Nino a couple years ago didn’t seem to really get the STJ going for any amount of time. Hopefully next year’s will 

I seem to recall that it did, my 2-month total from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 was 13” of precip. With canada torched, it was just too warm for snow. Ironically the only snows we got were when the STJ took a break.

[konksw]

With DC having recorded its first measurable snowfall(s) in december since 2017? I have a hard time being too disappointed by how this winter has started out. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve…

The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA.

The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve…

The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA.

The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.

Average that out and we're looking pretty good!! 

But seriously, yeah, there's a lot going on with how this will all evolve.  I mean hell, just look at the mood the past week or so in this place!  One day everyone's all high about how we actually have a couple of potential events, joking about "what Christmas torch?", and the next when that's not being modeled anymore everyone is all gloom and doom, saying we're toast until at least mid-January.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though. 

Looks like ens are filling in with 2 camps now. The mean shows no major shift with large scale features but under the hood looks more promising. Fairly deep (semi stable?) trough diving down and height rises along the west coast. Could be the first sign of a way out of the current doh! pattern lol. Ops are obviously hinting at the idea with the 6z gfs going straight nuts lol

 

[Benjamn3]

41 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Average that out and we're looking pretty good!! 

But seriously, yeah, there's a lot going on with how this will all evolve.  I mean hell, just look at the mood the past week or so in this place!  One day everyone's all high about how we actually have a couple of potential events, joking about "what Christmas torch?", and the next when that's not being modeled anymore everyone is all gloom and doom, saying we're toast until at least mid-January.

Well some of us are still torching on Xmas. Lol

[Steve25]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869?s=46
 

Well…

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869?s=46
 

Well…

It would just be a gut punch to strike out for the rest of the winter.

[Steve25]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It would just be a gut punch to strike out for the rest of the winter.

I don’t know how you all feel about Webb. In my time following him, it seems like he’s been about as informed and accurate as anyone I’ve come across. So him saying this does feel like a massive sucker punch. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The big story were all missing is the drought

Watch the flood gates open when the Niña ends like in 2018.

[anotherman]

Might be time to stop checking this thread, for my mental health.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I don’t know how you all feel about Webb. In my time following him, it seems like he’s been about as informed and accurate as anyone I’ve come across. So him saying this does feel like a massive sucker punch. 

I don't follow anyone about long range stuff and usually stick to my own thoughts but wasn't Webb on the cold/blocking train just a few weeks ago? When all guidance was unified in the general idea?

Of course it didn't work out and here we are but wouldn't it be the same mistake to jump all in on what lr guidance is unified on now? Long range weather is one fickle beast. If it was easy to predict beyond a couple weeks we could all just be energy traders and retire in a couple years. But it doesn't work like that. Not even close really. 

I never thought this would be some kind of awesome snowy winter but to marry the idea that it's "mostly over" already is a blunder imho. Analogs are nearly unified that the way out of the current persistence is a cold and/or stormy period in the east. It makes sense to me as the winter see-saw has been part of the personality already and likely to continue (imho only). I personally don't agree that things are dire and a persistent hostile snow pattern is here to stay. If anything, I expect a 2 week period in Jan to be pretty good for chances. Luck and timing hold the cards for production but my money is on real winter returning for a decent period in Jan. Guidance is currently starting to pick up on the idea late in the first week of Jan. I'm starting to expect that trend to continue. Wait and see for now. 

[NorthArlington101]

It’s not a perfect comparison but trusting a single good poster on Twitter for how the whole season is gonna go will work as well as trusting a fantasy football analyst for your week to week start/sits. Nobody knows. Strange things happen. Random players can have a home run game. We’ve got 3 months to go in winter where it can be significantly snowy around here. Cannot possibly wave a white flag yet. 

[DDweatherman]

Not buying Webb's latest. He had cold/blocking scenarios loaded up and ready to go. His science behind the logic is sound here in that we need change, but it's not curtains through February from what I'm seeing. To attribute this all to Nina when the actually ENSO state is so weak in that direction is also a bit incorrect. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s not a perfect comparison but trusting a single good poster on Twitter for how the whole season is gonna go will work as well as trusting a fantasy football analyst for your week to week start/sits. Nobody knows. Strange things happen. Random players can have a home run game. We’ve got 3 months to go in winter where it can be significantly snowy around here. Cannot possibly wave a white flag yet. 

What doesn’t help is that Webb has been known to call people out who challenge him. Last week he was running rings around the people doubting torchmas in the east screenshotting model runs that showed muted warmth in our area and below normal in New England. Flash forward to now and looking at the 7 day on Google for DC it’ll be AN but it’ll be low 50s instead of low 60s which was forecasted a couple days ago.

[Terpeast]

Isn’t Webb living in New Mexico or somewhere like that? I can see why he would be frustrated wrt his backyard snowfall prospects (lack of STJ), but to paint that as “winter’s over” for the entire country/EC is a bit much. Some stretches are gonna suck, others may be decent. I still don’t think this is a one track winter. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Isn’t Webb living in New Mexico or somewhere like that? I can see why he would be frustrated wrt his backyard snowfall prospects (lack of STJ), but to paint that as “winter’s over” for the entire country/EC is a bit much. Some stretches are gonna suck, others may be decent. I still don’t think this is a one track winter. 

The NYC area is modeled to get some more snow on Tuesday.

[aldie 22]

Uh oh I saw geese flying north today.. Webb is right

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS for Christmas....rain and 40s....our specialty. Also perfect example on taking models with a BIG grain of salt outside a few days.  No torchmas, just rawmas...

 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 Some stretches are gonna suck, others may be decent. I still don’t think this is a one track winter. 

Exactly. All too often there are 2 modes of thinking here... wall to wall good or door to door turd lol. Through history the vast majority of our winters fall in between. A general mix of good periods and blind shitting. Simply guessing an in between winter is the highest odds and the most common outcome. This winter sure feels like an in-betweener to me 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS for Christmas....rain and 40s....our specialty. Also perfect example on taking models with a BIG grain of salt outside a few days.  No torchmas, just rawmas...

Who cares about rain and 40s? This is the day after Christmas, looks fun!

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Who cares about rain and 40s? This is the day after Christmas, looks fun!

[bncho]

What exactly Webb is seeing that screams to him "ugliest Jan/Feb he's seen in a long time" I'm not sure. He cites that there'll be strong +AO/+NAO tendencies but I doubt that'll be the case because I'm not sure how that domination throughout the whole winter would happen. Maybe there are a few +NAO periods but otherwise I wouldn't put much stock in what he says. There's a decent -EPO signal trying to develop for mid-January and the overall pacific looks to become better then as well

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. All too often there are 2 modes of thinking here... wall to wall good or door to door turd lol. Through history the vast majority of our winters fall in between. A general mix of good periods and blind shitting. Simply guessing an in between winter is the highest odds and the most common outcome. This winter sure feels like an in-betweener to me 

I'll double your exactly and agree!  This may be a little off-topic, but what you allude to about modes of thinking is the reason I roll my eyes when I hear people say how 2015-16 was totally sucky and a torch except for the one big storm in January.  Well...that's a rather large "exception" ("Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?")!!  Not to mention, I believe that thinking is skewed by the ridiculous month-long torch in December, which averaged +8 to +10 for the month across the area.  But take a look at January and February, at just DCA for example.  We were 2-3 degrees colder than normal in January and about normal (very slightly below) in February.  Yeah, the last week or so of that February got warm, but let's not pretend that the big January blizzard was the only chance we had and everything else was wall-to-wall torch.  We did get a rather interesting event around Presidents' Day, ice/snow, that seems to slip under the radar in recalling that season.  Did we have other chances in the 6 week period from early January to mid-late February?  Maybe, I don't exactly recall...but I bet if we got just one more moderate advisory or warning-level event people wouldn't be saying it was a failure "except for one event".  Heck, I still like the winter of 2006-07...after a warm December and first part of January, things flipped and we had an extremely cold February.  Yeah, we missed out on big snow for that Valentine's Day (but 3" sleet and ice followed by very cold!), but we did have chances and I still like that season even though it was below normal in terms of actual snow.  Or even 2014-15...sucky until Valentine's Day that year, and we had a concentrated 3-4 week period of intense winter!  But people don't talk about how that winter was all crap "other than..."

[pazzo83]

8 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The big story were all missing is the drought. The local creeks are drying up. The Potomac is super low. The lowest I've ever seen it. We just can't buy a storm or rainy day. Cold and dry to warm and dry. The next 10 days looks warm and dry. Basically the opposite of last January (cold/dry). 

 

yeah - we need precip in a bad way.

[pazzo83]

51 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Who cares about rain and 40s? This is the day after Christmas, looks fun!

honestly we should aim for 80 since Dec now is the only month in which DC has not recorded an 80F temperature.