December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone saw this, but worth a quick read regarding new NOAA modeling.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Even our brief Nino a couple years ago didn’t seem to really get the STJ going for any amount of time. Hopefully next year’s will 

I seem to recall that it did, my 2-month total from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 was 13” of precip. With canada torched, it was just too warm for snow. Ironically the only snows we got were when the STJ took a break.

[konksw]

With DC having recorded its first measurable snowfall(s) in december since 2017? I have a hard time being too disappointed by how this winter has started out. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve…

The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA.

The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve…

The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA.

The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.

Average that out and we're looking pretty good!! 

But seriously, yeah, there's a lot going on with how this will all evolve.  I mean hell, just look at the mood the past week or so in this place!  One day everyone's all high about how we actually have a couple of potential events, joking about "what Christmas torch?", and the next when that's not being modeled anymore everyone is all gloom and doom, saying we're toast until at least mid-January.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though. 

Looks like ens are filling in with 2 camps now. The mean shows no major shift with large scale features but under the hood looks more promising. Fairly deep (semi stable?) trough diving down and height rises along the west coast. Could be the first sign of a way out of the current doh! pattern lol. Ops are obviously hinting at the idea with the 6z gfs going straight nuts lol

 

[Benjamn3]

41 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Average that out and we're looking pretty good!! 

But seriously, yeah, there's a lot going on with how this will all evolve.  I mean hell, just look at the mood the past week or so in this place!  One day everyone's all high about how we actually have a couple of potential events, joking about "what Christmas torch?", and the next when that's not being modeled anymore everyone is all gloom and doom, saying we're toast until at least mid-January.

Well some of us are still torching on Xmas. Lol

[Steve25]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869?s=46
 

Well…

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869?s=46
 

Well…

It would just be a gut punch to strike out for the rest of the winter.

[Steve25]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It would just be a gut punch to strike out for the rest of the winter.

I don’t know how you all feel about Webb. In my time following him, it seems like he’s been about as informed and accurate as anyone I’ve come across. So him saying this does feel like a massive sucker punch. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The big story were all missing is the drought

Watch the flood gates open when the Niña ends like in 2018.

[anotherman]

Might be time to stop checking this thread, for my mental health.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I don’t know how you all feel about Webb. In my time following him, it seems like he’s been about as informed and accurate as anyone I’ve come across. So him saying this does feel like a massive sucker punch. 

I don't follow anyone about long range stuff and usually stick to my own thoughts but wasn't Webb on the cold/blocking train just a few weeks ago? When all guidance was unified in the general idea?

Of course it didn't work out and here we are but wouldn't it be the same mistake to jump all in on what lr guidance is unified on now? Long range weather is one fickle beast. If it was easy to predict beyond a couple weeks we could all just be energy traders and retire in a couple years. But it doesn't work like that. Not even close really. 

I never thought this would be some kind of awesome snowy winter but to marry the idea that it's "mostly over" already is a blunder imho. Analogs are nearly unified that the way out of the current persistence is a cold and/or stormy period in the east. It makes sense to me as the winter see-saw has been part of the personality already and likely to continue (imho only). I personally don't agree that things are dire and a persistent hostile snow pattern is here to stay. If anything, I expect a 2 week period in Jan to be pretty good for chances. Luck and timing hold the cards for production but my money is on real winter returning for a decent period in Jan. Guidance is currently starting to pick up on the idea late in the first week of Jan. I'm starting to expect that trend to continue. Wait and see for now. 

[NorthArlington101]

It’s not a perfect comparison but trusting a single good poster on Twitter for how the whole season is gonna go will work as well as trusting a fantasy football analyst for your week to week start/sits. Nobody knows. Strange things happen. Random players can have a home run game. We’ve got 3 months to go in winter where it can be significantly snowy around here. Cannot possibly wave a white flag yet. 

[DDweatherman]

Not buying Webb's latest. He had cold/blocking scenarios loaded up and ready to go. His science behind the logic is sound here in that we need change, but it's not curtains through February from what I'm seeing. To attribute this all to Nina when the actually ENSO state is so weak in that direction is also a bit incorrect.