December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone saw this, but worth a quick read regarding new NOAA modeling.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Even our brief Nino a couple years ago didn’t seem to really get the STJ going for any amount of time. Hopefully next year’s will 

I seem to recall that it did, my 2-month total from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 was 13” of precip. With canada torched, it was just too warm for snow. Ironically the only snows we got were when the STJ took a break.

[konksw]

With DC having recorded its first measurable snowfall(s) in december since 2017? I have a hard time being too disappointed by how this winter has started out. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve…

The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA.

The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve…

The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA.

The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.

Average that out and we're looking pretty good!! 

But seriously, yeah, there's a lot going on with how this will all evolve.  I mean hell, just look at the mood the past week or so in this place!  One day everyone's all high about how we actually have a couple of potential events, joking about "what Christmas torch?", and the next when that's not being modeled anymore everyone is all gloom and doom, saying we're toast until at least mid-January.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though. 

Looks like ens are filling in with 2 camps now. The mean shows no major shift with large scale features but under the hood looks more promising. Fairly deep (semi stable?) trough diving down and height rises along the west coast. Could be the first sign of a way out of the current doh! pattern lol. Ops are obviously hinting at the idea with the 6z gfs going straight nuts lol

 

[Benjamn3]

41 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Average that out and we're looking pretty good!! 

But seriously, yeah, there's a lot going on with how this will all evolve.  I mean hell, just look at the mood the past week or so in this place!  One day everyone's all high about how we actually have a couple of potential events, joking about "what Christmas torch?", and the next when that's not being modeled anymore everyone is all gloom and doom, saying we're toast until at least mid-January.

Well some of us are still torching on Xmas. Lol

[Steve25]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869?s=46
 

Well…

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869?s=46
 

Well…

It would just be a gut punch to strike out for the rest of the winter.