December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

"AI will takeover the world."
Also AI:

 

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Me too!!

Well then you three!

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI ensemble looks darn good to me....

[Eskimo Joe]

Both the 12z GEFS, 12z AI-GEFS, and the 12z AI-ENS have several warning level hits from I-95 and points west. We may not be that far off from something here.

[Solution Man]

Good vibes, Happy Thanksgiving 

[Benjamn3]

These models are much like me after this edible at family thanksgiving. Kinda don’t know what’s going on, but I’m having a good time. 

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

These models are much like me after this edible at family thanksgiving. Kinda don’t know what’s going on, but I’m having a good time. 

We're scared from a decade of rug pulls and great patterns that are just two weeks away. It's smart to be cautious. A legit advisory level snowfall before Christmas, that doesn't melt off in two days, would do wonders for this subforum.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Keith is concerned about events thru 12/6

Hapoy Thanksgiving my man!

Happy Thanksgiving H****d!  Let’s hope we score.  

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Happy Thanksgiving H****d!  Let’s hope we score.  

Horny’d. 

[WEATHER53]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Happy Thanksgiving H****d!  Let’s hope we score.  

He’s not a snow lover and his comments to me are unusual for him  so I’m quite hopeful and 12/5 looks good analog wise

[yoda]

Oh okay then (this afternoon AFD from LWX)

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A more active weather pattern is likely to build over region late
this weekend and continue to the early parts of next week bringing
multiple chances for wintry precipitation. The first chance in the
long term period for wintry precipitation will occur Sunday into
early Monday morning as a strong sfc low passes to the north with
it`s attending front moving through our region on Sunday. As
precipitation associated with the front moves into the region, cold
air in place ahead of the boundary may allow for some front end
wintry precipitation. Additional wintry precipitation will be
possible on the back end side of the front as cold air rushes into
the region. Model guidance continues to have considerable spread on
precipitation types with freezing rain and snow possible. Based
recent trends,the best chance for impactful wintry precipitation at
this time will likely be in areas along and west of the I-81
corridor.

A brief lull in precipitation is likely on Monday, but a strong
coastal low passing to the south of the region will bring another
round of precipitation to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Weather
models have a range of solutions for the Tuesday event with some
solutions having a combination heavy rain and some wintry
precipitation and other solutions indicating the chance for a
decent accumulating snow event. National Blend of Model plume
graphics really shows the uncertainty with snow solutions ranging
from  0 inches to near 15 inches of snow. At this time, we continue
to have low confidence in the wintry threat early next week, but
it`s a period of note worth keeping an eye on for planning purposes.
&&

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Oh okay then (this afternoon AFD from LWX)

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A more active weather pattern is likely to build over region late
this weekend and continue to the early parts of next week bringing
multiple chances for wintry precipitation. The first chance in the
long term period for wintry precipitation will occur Sunday into
early Monday morning as a strong sfc low passes to the north with
it`s attending front moving through our region on Sunday. As
precipitation associated with the front moves into the region, cold
air in place ahead of the boundary may allow for some front end
wintry precipitation. Additional wintry precipitation will be
possible on the back end side of the front as cold air rushes into
the region. Model guidance continues to have considerable spread on
precipitation types with freezing rain and snow possible. Based
recent trends,the best chance for impactful wintry precipitation at
this time will likely be in areas along and west of the I-81
corridor.

A brief lull in precipitation is likely on Monday, but a strong
coastal low passing to the south of the region will bring another
round of precipitation to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Weather
models have a range of solutions for the Tuesday event with some
solutions having a combination heavy rain and some wintry
precipitation and other solutions indicating the chance for a
decent accumulating snow event. National Blend of Model plume
graphics really shows the uncertainty with snow solutions ranging
from  0 inches to near 15 inches of snow. At this time, we continue
to have low confidence in the wintry threat early next week, but
it`s a period of note worth keeping an eye on for planning purposes.
&&

0-15 inches? Sounds like a CWG forecast 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Happy Thanksgiving H****d!  Let’s hope we score.  

Amen brother!!!

[jayyy]

GFS seems to be making subtle movements toward the Euro at H5 since last night.

If we keep expectations in check… a solid early December 2-5” type event (1-3” closer to the fall line and 3-5” up this way) that doesn’t melt immediately would do wonders for this forum. Especially with a threat or two possible behind it.

I’d obviously love a warning level event with temps in the upper 20s up this way, but I’m not going to bite on the possibility of such a solution until 72 hours out.

[LeesburgWx]

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

Oh okay then (this afternoon AFD from LWX)

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A more active weather pattern is likely to build over region late
this weekend and continue to the early parts of next week bringing
multiple chances for wintry precipitation. The first chance in the
long term period for wintry precipitation will occur Sunday into
early Monday morning as a strong sfc low passes to the north with
it`s attending front moving through our region on Sunday. As
precipitation associated with the front moves into the region, cold
air in place ahead of the boundary may allow for some front end
wintry precipitation. Additional wintry precipitation will be
possible on the back end side of the front as cold air rushes into
the region. Model guidance continues to have considerable spread on
precipitation types with freezing rain and snow possible. Based
recent trends,the best chance for impactful wintry precipitation at
this time will likely be in areas along and west of the I-81
corridor.

A brief lull in precipitation is likely on Monday, but a strong
coastal low passing to the south of the region will bring another
round of precipitation to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Weather
models have a range of solutions for the Tuesday event with some
solutions having a combination heavy rain and some wintry
precipitation and other solutions indicating the chance for a
decent accumulating snow event. National Blend of Model plume
graphics really shows the uncertainty with snow solutions ranging
from  0 inches to near 15 inches of snow. At this time, we continue
to have low confidence in the wintry threat early next week, but
it`s a period of note worth keeping an eye on for planning purposes.
&&

Mets just want turkey and said just put in 0-15 inches to cover the bases

[WEATHER53]

44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

0-15 inches? Sounds like a CWG forecast 

I had to laugh.  0-15”  What a science 

[TSSN+]

Less confluence and stronger vort thru 84. Let’s see how this goes. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Less confluence and stronger vort thru 84. Let’s see how this goes. 

Probably going to be a warmer run. Hope I'm wrong.

[Terpeast]

Yeah I don’t like the less confluence part either. Looks more like 6z

[WEATHER53]

It takes 2.5 days for models  to cycle thru  the CAB so look  for either tomorrow night or no later than noon Saturday for sizable snow amounts to appear uniformly 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I don’t like the less confluence part either. Looks more like 6z

I mean considering how much more euro is weaker rather not start big south moves each run. Little tick north before comes south again is fine be me. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean considering how much more euro is weaker rather not start big south moves each run. Little tick north before comes south again is fine be me. 

Makes sense. iirc the deamplification trend usually starts at 3-4 days out, no?

otoh, the high moved way off to the east and we need it to stay to the north of us. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Makes sense. iirc the deamplification trend usually starts at 3-4 days out, no?

otoh, the high moved way off to the east and we need it to stay to the north of us. 

Antedecent southeast winds are a death knell for us. Hope this isn't a trend.

[winter_warlock]

 Hmmmm  not good  unless ur in mountains 

[TSSN+]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Makes sense. iirc the deamplification trend usually starts at 3-4 days out, no?

otoh, the high moved way off to the east and we need it to stay to the north of us. 

The way we seen these storms shift the last few years ain’t nothing really too concerning about a few moves here and there. It’s when the multiple runs in a row show up or big jumps which we really haven’t had much of yet. 

[87storms]

38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Makes sense. iirc the deamplification trend usually starts at 3-4 days out, no?

otoh, the high moved way off to the east and we need it to stay to the north of us. 

I'd rather have the Euro on our side at this range.

[Chris78]

What time does the 18z run now?

[TSSN+]

Gfs pretty much a Corbin copy for the 6th storm as the 18z result for Tuesday. Bleh 

[Terpeast]

I wouldn’t read too much into the 6th because I’ve noticed that the gfs (and other models) sometimes “copy” what the preceding system did before its details are even fully resolved.