dendrite Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 GEFS really juiced up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 Gfs tried the same scenario again on the 6th. Tblizz approved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 I would wager we see the GFS tone down a bit as we get closer. I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw some other guidance even trend towards the GFS, only for guidance to back down Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12. UKIE kind of meh Color me shocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs tried the same scenario again on the 6th. Tblizz approved. Lots and lots of very marginal systems on the guidance the last few days. Let’s get to Christmas with nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 37 minutes ago, radarman said: Euro will be mocked over this all winter. We're getting revenge for the Ryder Cup. GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just a figment of someone's imagination 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just a figment of someone's imagination Euro has been ass with this one. Hopefully it holds firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just figment of someone's imagination Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too. So not really a homer post. Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right. But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago. NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: What does Euro IFS stand for Mr Egg head It Fucking Sucks 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 9 minutes ago, radarman said: Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too. So not really a homer post. Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right. But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago. NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event. You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something. I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: GEFS really juiced up What are the temps like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something. 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow. Agree it looks good right now, but too close. I'm comfy betting on a NW trend at day 4 in early Dec that depends on a cf penetrating into warmish ocean water and a baroclinic zone setting up offshore or near shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 The GFS gradient is like 5" at KLWN and 10" IMBY lol Nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 At least 12z Euro AI gets precip into interior SNE now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 +SDC would def work better for my area on the GFS, I think....like 3-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At least 12z Euro AI gets precip into interior SNE now. What a cute model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". I largely ignore it and treat as an ensemble member...too much data as is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. Edit: @40/70 Benchmark nails it. There's a lot out here already. I basically use most models as ensembles at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 12z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though. Everything has some utility if weighted properly and used in the correct context. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 12z euro Must have trended se if you posted it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. There are definitely alot of factors. But if you're still producing scenarios where solutions are inconsistent on a run-to-run basis and you have all sorts of jumping around, then what is the value in there? Unless like Ray said, "its used as another tool". But then all its doing is more than likely increasing uncertainty, not decreasing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 Don’t do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 Fucking euro. Will end up Kali Mah here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Must have trended se if you posted it. It did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2025 Share Posted November 28, 2025 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though. Yup...more than likely the future...and then society is doomed once this stuff crashes because nobody is ever going to be taught basic understandings, principles, and concepts anymore (talking beyond weather here) and taught "how to build a model or algorithm" and things crash...nobody is going to know what to do because they don't have a computer telling them how. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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