December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[George001]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...definitely something to consider. Could see 564 heights at 500 and +10C at 850 but could easily be wedged at the sfc 

Big ice?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Big ice?

It's a race between when we get our next region wide crippling ice storm and a cat 3 hurricane

[backedgeapproaching]

6 minutes ago, ariof said:

You could say that.

Or a fun "oh a TT jackknifed now it's a fun sit for four hours while they reopen the road"

I think its the only stretch of road on the East Coast with a chain up requirement for Big Rigs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's a race between when we get our next region wide crippling ice storm and a cat 3 hurricane

Yeah, a three legged turtle race.

[tunafish]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

8hrs of Christmas rain. Enjoy. 

 

If you listen closely you can hear children crying as defeated middle-aged men throw wrapped gifts and a flame-engulfed tree out the window.

I also heard what sounded like a hooved animal getting choked out, and some muttering about the Mansfield snow depth, maybe?

Wasn't expecting that based on the title.  Kinda wild, actually. 

[TheMainer]

First flakes starting here.

Looks like around 0.5 to 0.6 of QPF, hoping for some denser 10:1 type stuff so we can build our base to withstand the next couple weeks.

[Damage In Tolland]

That look is exactly how the monster I storm happened in Montreal and NNE in 98. This time that would be over SNE/CNE

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That look is exactly how the monster I storm happened in Montreal and NNE in 98. This time that would be over SNE/CNE

Too bad its 15 days away. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Since I’m trying to be more glass half full, that gfs run was better than 6z and close to giving some folks some snow 

Way to be TBlizz.  Then Goose and Wiz crush hopes with it ain’t happening.  Here’s to hoping they are both wrong. 

[MarkO]

Night and day. Just got back to Lowell from up north. Left there and it was 18F and just started snowing. Got to Lowell and it was milky sun and 40F. Expecting 6-8" up there but the raiin might wash away the 2" of snow we got remaining here in Lowell. It just seems like this is going to be a NNE winter. At least the first half. 

Heading out to Steamboat for a week. Barely enough snow to ski out there. They've only gotten 35" since they've opened and ain't getting anything over the next week. Sucks.

[brooklynwx99]

AIFS is a borderline SECS. TPV is more amped

[brooklynwx99]

if you get the TPV that amped, you can def get 6" of snowfall on 0.4" liquid. the fluff factor is usually strong with these systems

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

AIFS is a borderline SECS. TPV is more amped

Yeah, somewhat similar to the Canadian. Probably a 3-6” deal but was very close to being a bit bigger, especially eastern and se mass

[WxWatcher007]

Good trends at 12z

[ineedsnow]

Euro trying

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, somewhat similar to the Canadian. Probably a 3-6” deal but was very close to being a bit bigger, especially eastern and se mass

to me, looked a touch SE compared to 6z. But still decent

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

to me, looked a touch SE compared to 6z

It def was, but kind of seemed like noise. Same general area was highlighted.

It seemed a bit more potent, but def a touch SE

[ineedsnow]

That is close to something much better on the Euro

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Way to be TBlizz.  Then Goose and Wiz crush hopes with it ain’t happening.  Here’s to hoping they are both wrong. 

Correct

Put me on record as to saying this is a nada for everyone but maybe enough to get some stray snow showers, particularly east

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That is close to something much better on the Euro

So bottom line, must be meh?

[Damage In Tolland]

She come 

[wxsniss]

Definitely better tilt, orientation of TPV, and upstream ridging by 0z Sunday compared to EC 0z... at moment a light event for southeast areas, but just minor tweaks will get significant improvement at surface on future runs

 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

So bottom line, must be meh?

Actually gets the cape and eastern areas close to advisory snows

[brooklynwx99]

honestly, perfect recovery from 00z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

So bottom line, must be meh?

Yeah, when I see “could be” “should be” or “close” I just assume there is nothing

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, when I see “could be” “should be” or “close” I just assume there is nothing

I think a regional 1-4" might be a good early guess. Still room either way though. 

[weatherwiz]

start digging the trough farther west towards Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois then maybe there is a chance. Otherwise the most favored spot for sfc low development is still way too south to give us anything outside of some snow showers.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

start digging the trough farther west towards Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois then maybe there is a chance. Otherwise the most favored spot for sfc low development is still way too south to give us anything outside of some snow showers.

The current setup is actually ideal for my area so you know it will be wrong. Earlier digging would result in liquid here.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, when I see “could be” “should be” or “close” I just assume there is nothing

You forgot the word of the month, “trying”

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Correct

Put me on record as to saying this is a nada for everyone but maybe enough to get some stray snow showers, particularly east

I’ve been unwavering in thinking this is a measurable event for most of SNE.