December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I smell a rat...

1989 may be the only rat that began this cold. 

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s 00z

Here’s 12z

thanks

support's still rather tepid

[Typhoon Tip]

well like I said a couple days ago.  It might help the psycho-babbleness of it all if one sets up their expectations according to this being the new paradigm.

there might be a reason we're seeing this leitmotif playing out every winter for the last 10 years or whatever, particularly over the last 5 years.  there's been good times interspersed, sure... if look back 2017 or 18 or whatever.   but objectively, what we're observing now has been dominant as though it has become the new base-line circulation type/norm. 

i keep hearing this internal statement, 'when the flow slows, it's too warm to snow'. 

 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I smell a rat...

On 12/9? 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most of us do that. Not like I get pumped for a CT special.

Yes, we all know that you save your excitement for the Mansfield snow stake! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well like I said a couple days ago.  It might help the psycho-babbleness of it all if one sets up their expectations according to this being the new paradigm.

there might be reason we're seeing this leitmotif playing out every winter for the last 10 years or whatever, particularly over the last 5 years.  there's been good times interspersed, sure... if look back 2017 or 18 or whatever.   but objectively, what we're observing now is becoming more dominantly as though it has become the new base-line circulation type/norm. 

i keep hearing this internal statement, 'when the flow slows, it's too warm to snow'. 

 

My snowfall numbers look a lot like the 1987-1988 to 1991-1992 period.

[klw]

What is going on with BTV maps?   They were only issued 1`5 minutes apart.  This happened last storm too.   I guess the difference could be due to the start time.

 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Believe when you see it.  It’ll mute big time. That ain’t happening. 

Not only that, but look how much it changed in just three model runs lol. People are now thinking it's going to be 65° on Christmas, give it a day. In the end, it might happen or it might not. But the way things have been going lately...everything cools down is we get closer

[weatherwiz]

I guess one big question when comparing this stretch of subpar winters versus stretches of subpar winters historically is, are the reasonings similar or are there glaring differences? For example, (as mentioned earlier), if our snowfall is more correlated to precipitation versus temperature and historically, our subpar winters occurred with winter which were abnormally dry, but our subpar winters now are occurring with average-to-above average precipitation, well then there clearly is a differentiator. Where subpar winters historically connected to periods of faster flow aloft, lack of storms, suppression, etc. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My snowfall numbers look a lot like the 1987-1988 to 1991-1992 period.

I'm starting to think similarities that are dropping out of the comparison to the 1980s era of doldrums may be more of a coincidence. 

I was fully sentient then...I remember a lot less speed/velocity stressing in the flow types through that era compared to today.  Boned for different reasons but the pay-check is the same.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen that all fall and winter and not once has it verified. It won’t this time either . At least not like that 

New England isn’t that far above normal in that depiction either.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not only that, but look how much it changed in just three model runs lol. People are now thinking it's going to be 65° on Christmas, give it a day. In the end, it might happen or it might not. But the way things have been going lately...everything cools down is we get closer

As was stated by another poster…that has about as much chance of verifying as a day 13-16 Bomb does.  Fun/and impressive to look at, but it will be gone the next run or two. But folks love to post both the extremes, so we look and laugh. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I thought @CT Rain's video was reasonable....basically a compromise of the GEM and EURO solutions favored, which should yield some snow, but certainly no blockbuster.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

SO TRUE! This isn't long range anymore, now in medium range with the torch.. All this BS with the coldest air on the globe, December to remember... How's this look for cold ? 7 day anomaly over the US Dec 17-24..

Well... The first 9 days have been super cold, and if this does pan out, it looks like it would only pan out for less than a week. If that. This map looks kind of odd to me though. Having the whole continental United States and half of Eastern Canada this warm doesn't make any sense. It just doesn't look right to me, but what do I know.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

New England isn’t that far above normal in that depiction either.

I posted that too. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well... The first 9 days have been super cold, and if this does pan out, it looks like it would only pan out for less than a week. If that. This map looks kind of odd to me though. Having the whole continental United States and half of Eastern Canada this warm doesn't make any sense. It just doesn't look right to me, but what do I know.

Well this is just an anomaly map...these colors don't necessarily mean "warm", especially this time of year. It's relative to climo. So for like NNE...its still going to be cold or chilly but a bit above of what it should be for the time of year. 

[Snowcrazed71]

I mentioned that I really like this guy. And he is calling bull$@& on the major warm up. But, we'll see

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I mentioned that I really like this guy. And he is calling bull$@& on the major warm up. But, we'll see

Haha...

How about, cuz'n it was 360+ hours out

'nough said? 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Haha...

How about, because it was 360+ hours out

'nough said? 

I actually posted this for all those about to jump off a cliff. Just don't know why people drive themselves insane with things 2 weeks out. We can't even get things right. It's 5 days out LOL

[WinterWolf]

384 hrs out…but who’s counting. 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah anyway.   you can't trust guidance beyond 90 or so hours in this maelstrom of a hemisphere.   that goes for anything

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I actually posted this for all those about to jump off a cliff. Just don't know why people drive themselves insane with things 2 weeks out. We can't even get things right. It's 5 days out LOL

that post reeked of self-soothing   ... It was really drafted up to off-set the fear they, themselves, covet. 

 

[moneypitmike]

16 minutes ago, klw said:

What is going on with BTV maps?   They were only issued 1`5 minutes apart.  This happened last storm too.   I guess the difference could be due to the start time.

 

 

One is through Thursday am, the other friday am.

[WxWatcher007]

This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, mreaves said:

I mentioned it the other day, well I had originally thought it was 80-81 before @tamarackcorrected me .  It might be my favorite winter.  It seemed to snow a couple of times a week and stayed pretty cold throughout.  At one point, our 4' electric fences were buried.

68/69

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

68/69

Just like the Tolland Massif.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God. 

Yup. Folks teetering.  Ya hate to see it.