December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

May need to watch for a C-1" type deal tomorrow night as that first weakening shortwave moves through ahead of the main clipper shortwave. Could also just be a few flurries...depends if we can saturate the column enough. 

I guess for most, anything that comes will wash away on Wednesday, no?

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

May need to watch for a C-1" type deal tomorrow night as that first weakening shortwave moves through ahead of the main clipper shortwave. Could also just be a few flurries...depends if we can saturate the column enough. 

Yeah 12km NAM has about 0.1" of liquid and it's pretty cold of course.

[UnitedWx]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Because it's Christmas.

It does appear that the GrinchFS is slowly changing its tune on that. Wouldn't surprise me considering so far they've all been muted

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I guess for most, anything that comes will wash away on Wednesday, no?

Yeah probably...warm enough to melt a coating or an inch of snow most likely. Interior elevations N of pike might keep new snow (they also have a current snowpack anyway from 12/2)....but further south and east near 84 and 495 prob low 40s on Wednesday...maybe warmer even further SE. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

High here was 26.6° after midnight…afternoon high 16.7°.

It’s already down to 14.8°…chilly late afternoon. 

My high was 14° at 12:45 am.  Currently 1.4° 

[CoastalWx]

S/w a little more south and flatter on this run. Grazes south coast. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ridge not quite as good this run on 18z GFS....so we get a scraper on the 12/14 event. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

S/w a little more south on this run. Grazes south coast. 

Yeah also some lower heights in SE Canada (they are never there these days when we need them)....in addition to the ridge being a little flatter at 132h. 

[WxWatcher007]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

May need to watch for a C-1" type deal tomorrow night as that first weakening shortwave moves through ahead of the main clipper shortwave. Could also just be a few flurries...depends if we can saturate the column enough. 

Yeah that’s of interest to me. 

27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I guess for most, anything that comes will wash away on Wednesday, no?

We want to get on the board. As many times as possible. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ridge not quite as good this run on 18z GFS....so we get a scraper on the 12/14 event. 

We’ll always have the 12z run. Hilarious that we can’t get a good trend two cycles in a row

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We’ll always have the 12z run. Hilarious that we can’t get a good trend two cycles in a row

Wasn’t that much worse. Fact that it had it is good enough.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That 18z gfs run looks a lot like the euro, which isn’t a good thing. A scraper with marginal temps on the south coast.

The differences are subtle, but they were evident kind of earlier in the run. Not a ton of time to change those for the better

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That 18z gfs run looks a lot like the euro, which isn’t a good thing. A scraper with marginal temps on the south coast.

The differences are subtle, but they were evident kind of earlier in the run. Not a ton of time to change those for the better

Not a ton but enough...I wouldn't throw in the towel til 00z Thursday

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Maue loves mocking the climate stuff.

-30s in Nunavut in winter. Stop the presses. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro was better looking sure.

 

Anyways. Are people wanting a jackpot 6 days out?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Not a ton but enough...I wouldn't throw in the towel til 00z Thursday

The ceiling isn’t like a KU or anything so a tweak here and there turns it into a 5-8 job.

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, mreaves said:

My high was 14° at 12:45 am.  Currently 1.4° 

Yeah…wrong side of midnight with the fropa to obtain a bush league high at 5z.

9.2° with a steady breeze now. Fun.

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The ceiling isn’t like a KU or anything so a tweak here and there turns it into a 5-8 job.

Right. What needs to change to slow the flow? -NAO? I thought we had that already. I would definitely be feeling pretty good out your way (and TBlizz) for an advisory event anyway.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ceiling isn’t like a KU or anything so a tweak here and there turns it into a 5-8 job.

No, but am I wrong in thinking the features that decide what will happen are getting setup sooner rather than later?

I think Wiz pointed this out earlier 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro was better looking sure.

 

Anyways. Are people wanting to jackoff 6 days out?

Yes

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No, but am I wrong in thinking the features that decide what will happen are getting setup sooner rather than later?

I think Wiz pointed this out earlier 

Coming from a bad area of observations though. 
I would like to see some consistency and improvement over the next few days, but it doesn’t have to happen overnight.

[bristolri_wx]

It would be interesting for someone to do a case study on the accuracy of model forecasts for these shortwaves that originate in areas with lower amounts of sample data.  My totally half-assed ignorant theory is that as the model resolution has increased over the last few years, paired with the faster flow we've had, it causes more run-to-run inconsistencies on the operational models for these types of storms.  If the flow was a little slower, there would be time of the physics to catch up to the shortwaves as they develop and provide a more consistent forecast.  We often do not get consensus on the info we need to determine snowfall amounts until a day or two before because many of the storms that have been happening over the last few years have been fast movers.  Not a lot of systems stalling and/or phasing, and when they do, they are usually modeled better.

The older lower resolution models may have been less sensitive to this problem, though may have not generated a more accurate forecasts, just one that was more consistently wrong until go time.  And as usual, we are often talking about differences in tracks of 50 or 100 miles to determine snow amounts, which is more difficult to pin down compared to just plain rain during other parts of the year.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

I guess for most, anything that comes will wash away on Wednesday, no?

Your Maine pit should see up to 3 inches in the next 2 days.

[CoastalWx]

Let’s take it all out on the 23rd.

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Coming from a bad area of observations though. 
I would like to see some consistency and improvement over the next few days, but it doesn’t have to happen overnight.

No grinch storm this run. We can all exhale

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s take it all out on the 23rd.

All kidding aside, that’s a high stakes pattern toward Xmas. Decent trends today of sinking that gradient south so maybe we can actually get a good winter threat near Xmas instead of flamingos and parrots flying overhead. 

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No grinch storm this run. We can all exhale

1040 and slightly west of yesterday’s 1035

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All kidding aside, that’s a high stakes pattern toward Xmas. Decent trends today of sinking that gradient south so maybe we can actually get a good winter threat near Xmas instead of flamingos and parrots flying overhead. 

Wilton?

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Your Maine pit should see up to 3 inches in the next 2 days.

That would be great--I'm not seeing it that way.

[CoastalWx]

That’s hilarious. A plant peeler of yore.