December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[George001]

I know the models aren’t showing many hits right now, but they are also showing a lot of northern energy coming down over the next couple of weeks. Northern energy patterns can be tricky, storms pop up out of nowhere sometimes.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Canadian has a very weak Norlun trough over eastern ma Saturday. Rain and snow showers. Get excited 

Man... You are completely scorched. Maybe it's just time to let go and stick with the summertime forum. Just trying to save you from the pain you are dealing with. 

[Snowcrazed71]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know the models aren’t showing many hits right now, but they are also showing a lot of northern energy coming down over the next couple of weeks. Northern energy patterns can be tricky, storms pop up out of nowhere sometimes.

Take today's storm for instance. It really was heading in One direction a few days back and then all the sudden yesterday things went downhill for a lot of people and the Connecticut and Southeastern Mass area. Fast forward to today, and I'm still at 31 at my house and they put a winter weather advisory in place until tomorrow morning at 7:00. So yes, things can and will change, especially when it's a week away.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

25 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man... You are completely scorched. Maybe it's just time to let go and stick with the summertime forum. Just trying to save you from the pain you are dealing with. 

The last half decade has taken a toll on me. Weather, life, etc. I’ll tell you this, my mood is a lot better in the summer when it’s sunny and 90 degrees. Light out until 8, etc.

The dark dreary 35 degree rain is for the birds

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro has the weak Norlun on Saturday too. Some nice rain showers. On the edge of my seat, can barely contain my excitement 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The last half decade has taken a toll on me. Weather, life, etc. I’ll tell you this, my mood is a lot better in the summer when it’s sunny and 90 degrees. Light out until 8, etc.

The dark dreary 35 degree rain is for the birds

Light out til 9:00 in the height of the summer. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Light out til 9:00 in the height of the summer. 

Yup. Wouldn’t hate to be sitting on the dock at newfound lake right now, instead it’s dark, dreary and pouring at 38 degrees 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro has the weak Norlun on Saturday too. Some nice rain showers. On the edge of my seat, can barely contain my excitement 

Euro couldn’t get today even remotely correct…don’t put any stock into it no matter which way it shows. 

[Kitz Craver]

The one thing I don’t like seeing is all models honing in on a warm up/cutter mid month. I guess that’s better than Christmas Eve/Day…

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

The one thing I don’t like seeing is all models honing in on a warm up/cutter mid month. I guess that’s better than Christmas Eve/Day…

A cutter and a reload is fine with me. 

[TheBudMan]

@40/70 Benchmark is sooooo excited that Norlun talk is back 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That 18z OP GFS run is straight out of a horror movie 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That 18z OP GFS run is straight out of a horror movie 

18z  C’mon.  Anything outside of 3-4 days is a complete joke.  Stick with ensembles.    

[Krs4Lfe]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That 18z OP GFS run is straight out of a horror movie 

Looks like a lot of warm/wet cutters, then cold and dry. Very reminiscent of the 2019 winter set up.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks like a lot of warm/wet cutters, then cold and dry. Very reminiscent of the 2019 winter set up.

Its just really a bunch of clippers

[SouthCoastMA]

40 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That 18z OP GFS run is straight out of a horror movie 

I was tempted to post about it, but you have it covered. I'll just pretend I didn't see that abomination and look again tomorrow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I think there’s too much volatility in either direction to really justify grousing or celebrating. It’s just a complete coin flip 

I tell you one thing there’s a numerical bounce in the PNA index between 6-7-8. Typically that’s a good place to nest an event.  Yet the operational versions are backing off … keeping the only identifiable wave ejected across the continent too flat and weak.  The operational runs don’t want to play along with what their respective ensemble derivatives are telling them they should be.  And they are all in disconnect: Euro, Canadian and American clusters

It’s one of those situations where something could come back in that period and you wouldn’t necessarily suspect it having given up. We were watching something out around the 10th, but it seems to have gotten pushed out to the 12th and now that one’s gone too. Meanwhile, the ensemble means have the coldest 500mb  anomaly, relative to normal, anywhere in the northern hemisphere over Southeast Canada between day 10 and 2 weeks. 

The operational runs being in this negative interference damping orgy strikes me as pure artifact for trying to handle such a fast changeable synaptic circumstance. 

The short version? There could very well be a couple of events between now and Christmas but no dopamine for you until further notice. Lol.

[CoastalWx]

18z gfs shows threats. All I would care about. 
 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That 18z OP GFS run is straight out of a horror movie 

Stop.  Just stop posting. You could F$#k up a wet dream. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like me make through at least 12/9 without anything else noteworthy, so aside from this crap event, my second week idea looks to be working out....this is like 2007. We had one crap event on 12/4, then waited for the second week to really get going.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

The one thing I don’t like seeing is all models honing in on a warm up/cutter mid month. I guess that’s better than Christmas Eve/Day…

Heh....I was hoping that idea wouldn't work out, but....

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The last half decade has taken a toll on me. Weather, life, etc. I’ll tell you this, my mood is a lot better in the summer when it’s sunny and 90 degrees. Light out until 8, etc.

The dark dreary 35 degree rain is for the birds

You got thrown a bone in January 2022, and me in January 2024....other than that, brutal stretch.

[weatherwiz]

I'll take a barrage of clipper threats. Several 2-4/3-5" clippers start adding to the seasonal total quickly.

[ORH_wxman]

There’s a ton of energy in the flow starting this weekend into next week…just a lot of vorticity firehosing off the pacific and if one of those amplifies, then we could see a larger system. I don’t think we’re going to be lacking for threats. They may not all materialize but I think guidance will show storms at different times next week. 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a ton of energy in the flow starting this weekend into next week…just a lot of vorticity firehosing off the pacific and if one of those amplifies, then we could see a larger system. I don’t think we’re going to be lacking for threats. They may not all materialize but I think guidance will show storms at different times next week. 

Yeah, we’re in good shape. We’re continuing to trend cold, and we’ll have ample shortwaves rolling into the region. Just give me chances. I don’t need to see D7-D5 nukes that trend to nothing. Danced that dance plenty. 

[weatherwiz]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a ton of energy in the flow starting this weekend into next week…just a lot of vorticity firehosing off the pacific and if one of those amplifies, then we could see a larger system. I don’t think we’re going to be lacking for threats. They may not all materialize but I think guidance will show storms at different times next week. 

Patterns like this you can tell in the weather social media world who just rips and reads SLP charts. All of a sudden the models at D3 will develop a QPF blob and people will go, "where did this come front, models didn't have this". Meanwhile that possibility was there for several-plus days.