December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

GEFS really juiced up

[CoastalWx]

Gfs tried the same scenario again on the 6th. Tblizz approved.

[weatherwiz]

I would wager we see the GFS tone down a bit as we get closer. I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw some other guidance even trend towards the GFS, only for guidance to back down Sunday evening.

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12. UKIE  kind of meh

Color me shocked. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs tried the same scenario again on the 6th. Tblizz approved.

Lots and lots of very marginal systems on the guidance the last few days. Let’s get to Christmas with nothing 

[dendrite]

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, radarman said:

Euro will be mocked over this all winter.  We're getting revenge for the Ryder Cup.

GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just a figment of someone's imagination 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just a figment of someone's imagination 

Euro has been ass with this one. Hopefully it holds firm. 

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just  figment of someone's imagination 

Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too.  So not really a homer post.  Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right.   But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago.  NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event.

[SJonesWX]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

What does Euro IFS stand for Mr Egg head  

It Fucking Sucks

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, radarman said:

Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too.  So not really a homer post.  Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right.   But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago.  NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event.

You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something.

I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow. 

[H2Otown_WX]

36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GEFS really juiced up

What are the temps like?

[radarman]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something.

 

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow. 

Agree it looks good right now, but too close.  I'm comfy betting on a NW trend at day 4 in early Dec that depends on a cf penetrating into warmish ocean water and a baroclinic zone setting up offshore or near shore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The GFS gradient is like 5" at KLWN and 10" IMBY lol

Nuts.

[ORH_wxman]

At least 12z Euro AI gets precip into interior SNE now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

+SDC would def work better for my area on the GFS, I think....like 3-4".

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least 12z Euro AI gets precip into interior SNE now. 

What a cute model

[weatherwiz]

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 

I largely ignore it and treat as an ensemble member...too much data as is.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 

I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. 

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark nails it. There's a lot out here already. I basically use most models as ensembles at this point. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 

It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though.

[MJO812]

12z euro

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though.

Everything has some utility if weighted properly and used in the correct context.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

12z euro

Must have trended se if you posted it.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. 

There are definitely alot of factors. But if you're still producing scenarios where solutions are inconsistent on a run-to-run basis and you have all sorts of jumping around, then what is the value in there? Unless like Ray said, "its used as another tool". But then all its doing is more than likely increasing uncertainty, not decreasing it. 

[CoastalWx]

Don’t do it

[CoastalWx]

Fucking euro. Will end up Kali Mah here.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Must have trended se if you posted it.

It did lol

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though.

Yup...more than likely the future...and then society is doomed once this stuff crashes because nobody is ever going to be taught basic understandings, principles, and concepts anymore (talking beyond weather here) and taught "how to build a model or algorithm" and things crash...nobody is going to know what to do because they don't have a computer telling them how.