Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,353
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Sador0410
    Newest Member
    Sador0410
    Joined

December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

37 minutes ago, radarman said:

Euro will be mocked over this all winter.  We're getting revenge for the Ryder Cup.

GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just a figment of someone's imagination 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just a figment of someone's imagination 

Euro has been ass with this one. Hopefully it holds firm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS ?? I will be shocked if the GFS wins anything. I hope you have been paying attention all fall. Its been amped with every system but we shall see if its really leading the way or just  figment of someone's imagination 

Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too.  So not really a homer post.  Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right.   But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago.  NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, radarman said:

Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too.  So not really a homer post.  Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right.   But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago.  NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event.

You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something.

I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something.

 

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow. 

Agree it looks good right now, but too close.  I'm comfy betting on a NW trend at day 4 in early Dec that depends on a cf penetrating into warmish ocean water and a baroclinic zone setting up offshore or near shore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 

I largely ignore it and treat as an ensemble member...too much data as is.

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 

I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. 

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark nails it. There's a lot out here already. I basically use most models as ensembles at this point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 

It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. 

There are definitely alot of factors. But if you're still producing scenarios where solutions are inconsistent on a run-to-run basis and you have all sorts of jumping around, then what is the value in there? Unless like Ray said, "its used as another tool". But then all its doing is more than likely increasing uncertainty, not decreasing it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though.

Yup...more than likely the future...and then society is doomed once this stuff crashes because nobody is ever going to be taught basic understandings, principles, and concepts anymore (talking beyond weather here) and taught "how to build a model or algorithm" and things crash...nobody is going to know what to do because they don't have a computer telling them how. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...