December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

2”+ QPF up to here feels like beer

[klw]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

ineedflake’s lake streamer is almost here. Let’s slick up 93 as the stores open.

It whitened the ground here an hour or so back.

[tavwtby]

at this point it looks like anyone south of the Pike is mostly wet, anyone north of RT 2 mostly white, probably better WoR folks holding on with ptype issues, but we'll see as we get into the weekend runs, Euro ens have a nice cluster, and then there's next Saturday possible refreshing some... still below 32 here with a stiff NW breeze, expect possible streamers today if I can catch one right.

[ORH_wxman]

GEM is going to be SE of 00z....looks like the Euro. D4 model war. 

[radarman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

My daughter will be able to go sledding at her school in S VT though. Looks solid enough there

Looks great up there right now.  Still time for a PF jackpot though

[Snowcrazed71]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d argue GFS has been leading the way with this.

You could be right on this one. But I wouldn't be surprised if it backs off a little bit on the strength and how far north it's going. But as I prefaced earlier, it's not super common to see big snows here in Connecticut in the first week of December. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, klw said:

It whitened the ground here an hour or so back.

We didn’t get 93, but we got 89.

https://www.wmur.com/article/interstate-89-northbound-new-hampshire-closed-112825/69576055

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is a lot more stacked than other guidance (i.e not as sloped with the pressure fields)....it's really going crazy with the main vort focusing and capturing the system....so we're seeing these tucked solutions with crazy QPF and rates....but also warmer for most of our area. 

I'm actually not sure which one to buy right now....I could be convinced either way. Part of me thinks GFS is a little overdone on this given the synoptics, but it's not impossible to see that solution. 

Yea, I didn't say it's physically implausible, but probably overboard.

[mahk_webstah]

Given it’s relative consistency, I would say a compromise is an order, but with an edge towards the GFS

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

You could be right on this one. But I wouldn't be surprised if it backs off a little bit on the strength and how far north it's going. But as I prefaced earlier, it's not super common to see big snows here in Connecticut in the first week of December. 

I’m not saying it’s right, but I’m saying it sort of has been leading the way with getting something up here.

Maybe it’s a little amped, but it’s not a crazy idea to have something like that. That high was offshore and you have all the srly flow and warm advection ahead of it. Nothing really to stop it from being so tucked in unless the short wave comes in much weaker.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEM is going to be SE of 00z....looks like the Euro. D4 model war. 

The difference is crazy. It’s just entirely less dynamic too. I’d did tick colder, but still not enough here.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I didn't say it's physically implausible, but probably overboard.

You're prob in a good spot...GFS only needs to be overamped by a very small margin for you to get a warning event. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m not saying it’s right, but I’m saying it sort of has been leading the way with getting something up here.

Maybe it’s a little amped, but it’s not a crazy idea to have something like that. That high was offshore and you have all the srly flow and warm advection ahead of it. Nothing really to stop it from being so tucked in unless the short wave comes in much weaker.

And even if the shortwave is weaker, like the 12z Canadian, it’s still not enough here because the whole thing is kind of weak sauce.

Canadian would make Kevin to Ray happy 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 Nail biter here.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Nail biter here.

Guidance blend would work pretty well for your area down to mine and Kevin's area. But you have an advantage with the latitude. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance blend would work pretty well for your area down to mine and Kevin's area. But you have an advantage with the latitude. 

Naked snow angels here 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance blend would work pretty well for your area down to mine and Kevin's area. But you have an advantage with the latitude. 

Yea, you want latitude with a primary warming H925.....elevation doesn't do as much too mitigate that.

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Nail biter here.

I don’t think this is far off, maybe it will tick a little further SE

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

I don’t think this is far off, maybe it will tick a little further SE

 

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I don’t think this is far off, maybe it will tick a little further SE

I wonder how often that snowfall gradient  has actually taken place in the Merrimack Valley area...

[HoarfrostHubb]

The pivotal positive snowfall change seems useful for this one at the moment

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Nail biter here.

Kraft/Epstein tiny weenie farewell here. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The pivotal positive snowfall change seems useful for this one at the moment

Might be underdone where it remains all snow....the all snow zone isn't like 33F snow unless you're in a solution where the coastal zones and SE zones are mostly snow...otherwise, its gonna be 29-32F...so accumulation should be pretty efficient even if its a little pasty. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

And even if the shortwave is weaker, like the 12z Canadian, it’s still not enough here because the whole thing is kind of weak sauce.

Canadian would make Kevin to Ray happy 

No, as I’ve been saying for days, this wouldn’t work or really ever work this time of year. Need to be north or inland. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might be underdone where it remains all snow....the all snow zone isn't like 33F snow unless you're in a solution where the coastal zones and SE zones are mostly snow...otherwise, its gonna be 29-32F...so accumulation should be pretty efficient even if its a little pasty. 

If you look at 925 to 850 where a decent chunk of the region is like minus one C so, it could get fairly wet, especially if lift is below 700.

[ineedsnow]

12. UKIE  kind of meh

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I don’t think this is far off, maybe it will tick a little further SE

GFS is the extreme outlier now. I think it caves quite a bit in the next couple runs and the euro ticks another hair NW. Then the consensus all ticks a little more NW toward go time.

Ukie came north a bit, but it was near Bermuda.

[dendrite]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

12. UKIE  kind of meh

Compare it to 00z

[CoastalWx]

Well, hopefully Kevin, Will and Ray get in on it and this isn’t just a bear den CJ.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

12. UKIE  kind of meh

Unusable for this system....00z was almost a full whiff. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is the extreme outlier now. I think it caves quite a bit in the next couple runs and the euro ticks another hair NW. Then the consensus all ticks a little more NW toward go time.

Ukie came north a bit, but it was near Bermuda.

That’s a good take imo.