December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Buzzard's Bay 495 look? 

When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer. 

[FXWX]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a 495 look. Which is not a surprise on 12/2.

Given today's trends, the non-event option seems to be fading fast; final outcome still dependent upon some finer points that will take another 3 days or so to resolve; degree of confluence across southeastern;  strength of retreating high, any -nao assist, strength of low-level temp gradient etc... like most SWFE events interior is favored, but current trends suggest to me front end dump potential could be decent on the coastal plain as well???  No matter how this first one plays out, it could help improve the setup for events that follow?

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer. 

I think he’s had 5 Pits since last winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Given today's trends, the non-event option seems to be fading fast; final outcome still dependent upon some finer points that will take another 3 days or so to resolve; degree of confluence across southeastern;  strength of retreating high, any -nao assist, strength of low-level temp gradient etc... like most SWFE events interior is favored, but current trends suggest to me front end dump potential could be decent on the coastal plain as well???  No matter how this first one plays out, it could help improve the setup for events that follow?

Gonna have to dive into this soon....probably going to get something out, along with my December preview, either late tonight or tomorrow night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Looks great If youre dendrite 

I'd hit it-

[40/70 Benchmark]

I expect to do very well this month relative to most of SNE....should be a slump-buster.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rains to Norwells 

 

[H2Otown_WX]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect to do very well this month relative to most of SNE....should be a slump-buster.

37"?

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer. 

I think he said Mattapoisett? At least he can give us day boat scallops.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Given today's trends, the non-event option seems to be fading fast; final outcome still dependent upon some finer points that will take another 3 days or so to resolve; degree of confluence across southeastern;  strength of retreating high, any -nao assist, strength of low-level temp gradient etc... like most SWFE events interior is favored, but current trends suggest to me front end dump potential could be decent on the coastal plain as well???  No matter how this first one plays out, it could help improve the setup for events that follow?

It’s just nice to see some things lining up. This won’t be 2015, but I think we have chances extending through the month. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Multiple times. 

Told ya 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That 12” line probably is 30 miles north with those mid level lows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That 12” line probably is 30 miles north with those mid level lows.

12" line is probably non-existent, but not the point.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna need to be in for this one with that retreating high. 

The question is.. how far are in ? Hunch or Freak 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The question is.. how far are in ?

Depends on track. Gfs was dicey for you with torched mid levels.  If that low could intensify more it would help close things off. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Depends on track. Gfs was dicey for you with torched mid levels.  If that low could intensify more it would help close things off. 

Does it rain to Nashua or does it rain to Dendy . That we do not know yet 

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

69 in a couple months.  WTF golden years my ass

I hear ya

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd hit it-

I'd bang it.

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does it rain to Nashua or does it rain to Dendy . That we do not know yet 

It’s pretty cold in the low levels on that depiction. Pretty wide area of sleet. It’s a really sloped system. 
 

But these are details that are mostly irrelevant right now. 

[FXWX]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s just nice to see some things lining up. This won’t be 2015, but I think we have chances extending through the month. 

Yep... There are always going to be folks complaining about a particular event due to their own backyard outcome, but it's nice having a base pattern that will give trackable events for much of December...

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Yep... There are always going to be folks complaining about a particular event due to their own backyard outcome, but it's nice having a base pattern that will give trackable events for much of December...

Totally agree. I’m proceeding with extreme caution this winter but the pattern/setup looks very good at the moment for the first 1/3 of December at least. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Totally agree. I’m proceeding with extreme caution this winter but the pattern/setup looks very good at the moment for the first 1/3 of December at least. 

Throw caution to the wind!

[78Blizzard]

Despite this warmup of the last couple of days, the cold November has given us now the coldest SSTs for Boston in the past 7 years, which in a marginal situation could be a deciding factor whether we rain or snow in this area.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Depends on track. Gfs was dicey for you with torched mid levels.  If that low could intensify more it would help close things off. 

I think our only shot down here is hoping for some front end scenario. Unless you thread the needle perfectly like 00z, it’s definitely not an all snow event, if there is an event.

the problem is, at least to me, the antecedent airmass is marginal, which isn’t super surprising for 12/2

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have the link of the CIPS analog site?

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone have the link of the CIPS analog site?

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

[MJO812]

Weenie icon

[MJO812]

[Snowedin]

57 and moist

Actually feels great after the last couple weeks of chilly, dry ball numbing cold.