December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

[cleetussnow]

8 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Not sure why cold matters on xmas-it's an indoor holiday.    Whether it's 12 or 56 you're sitting inside

What?  I don’t know where to start with this.

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Regular GFS squishes it like a bug, congrats-ish DC to Cape May. Didn’t even know there was an AI GFS.

[eduggs]

Far NW suburbs still on track for a possible C-2" tomorrow. Unlike last week which was more of a latitudinal gradient, this potential wintry event has a stronger elevational component.

I could see the top of Schunnemunk or Mt. Beacon getting an inch or two of snow while the Hudson River towns get zilch. Elevated NW NJ could get a little accumulation this time too.

[anthonymm]

Threat for Sunday looks impotent

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Regular GFS squishes it like a bug, congrats-ish DC to Cape May. Didn’t even know there was an AI GFS.

There is also a cmc para. AI is taking over everything. 

[eduggs]

Sunday isn't lost yet. The next day or so will likely resolve whether or not this is a potential wintry threat. The ICON, ECM-AI, GFS-AI, and GEFS support a possible snowstorm. The other guidance (UK, ECM, CMC, GEPS, EPS) aren't too far off.

[anthonymm]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Sunday isn't lost yet. The next day or so will likely resolve whether or not this is a potential wintry threat. The ICON, ECM-AI, GFS-AI, and GEFS support a possible snowstorm. The other guidance (UK, ECM, CMC, GEPS, EPS) aren't too far off.

I expect consensus from the 0z's tonight that it will trend to a nothing burger. Central park could get just a T of snow for December if sunday doesn't materialize (we start torching around the 20th). That means go super low this winter (10"ish or less).

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I expect consensus from the 0z's tonight that it will trend to a nothing burger. Central park could get just a T of snow for December if sunday doesn't materialize (we start torching around the 20th). That means go super low this winter (10"ish or less).

I get the pessimistic sentiment. I feel it too. But the reality is we just don't know how things will play out. Some of our best snowstorms seemingly came out of nowhere. And the positive surprises are more fun than fretting for a week about a modeled blizzard that might disappear. 

[MJO812]

AI Euro and euro are more amped

[Krs4Lfe]

7 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I expect consensus from the 0z's tonight that it will trend to a nothing burger. Central park could get just a T of snow for December if sunday doesn't materialize (we start torching around the 20th). That means go super low this winter (10"ish or less).

 

Just now, eduggs said:

I get the pessimistic sentiment. I feel it too. But the reality is we just don't know how things will play out. Some of our best snowstorms seemingly came out of nowhere. And the positive surprises are more fun than fretting for a week about a modeled blizzard that might disappear. 

Unfortunately, in this fast flow pattern that has been dominant since 2019, I doubt storms will pop up out of nowhere. I think if there’s enough storminess around, one will come our way.