December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Suppression?

F the Mid-Atlantic

[Brasiluvsnow]

What is this that we are looking at for Monday = looks like rain yuck

[SACRUS]

Interesting Satellite visible loop with the clouds / snow / showers-flurries east, clearing west into EPA/NW NJ and clouds beyond further west

 

[EasternLI]

January looks quite promising actually. Look at the direction of travel on the EPS. We're starting out the month with what looks increasingly likely to be strong blocking. So it's a time to keep eyes open simply due to that.

Then, beyond that, the big Pacific block was taken out. There's a trough now in the Aleutian Islands forcing a +PNA. With what very well could be a decaying west based NAO block by then... There's some really good potential in all of that as we head into peak climo. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

What is this that we are looking at for Monday = looks like rain yuck

Yep 50 and rain

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

January looks quite promising actually. Look at the direction of travel on the EPS. We're starting out the month with what looks increasingly likely to be strong blocking. So it's a time to keep eyes open simply due to that.

Then, beyond that, the big Pacific block was taken out. There's a trough now in the Aleutian Islands forcing a +PNA. With what very well could be a decaying west based NAO block by then... There's some really good potential in all of that as we head into peak climo. 

I guess we're all always in search of the elusive KU / NESDIS Cat. 5 snowstorm !  

Gotta believe.

[bluewave]

This has to be one of the most unusual December patterns that we have ever seen. The record low Arctic sea ice near the Kara and Barents seas has been linked to stratospheric warming events. 2025 marks one of the earliest SSWs on record.

It’s also possible that this is our first December with two distinct 4-8” clipper snow events. Plus I am not even sure when the last time was that there were two 4-8” clipper events only two weeks apart during December to March.

So I am not really sure yet what if anything this December will say about the rest of the winter. Since we have never had a December pattern like this before. Also note how each of the clipper events is being followed by a strong Great Lakes cutter with rain and a quick warm up. 
 

 

[psv88]

Just now, bluewave said:

This has to be one of the most unusual December patterns that we have ever seen. The record low Arctic sea ice near the Kara and Barents seas has been linked to stratospheric warming events. 2025 marks one of the earliest SSWs on record.

It’s also possible that this is our first December with two distinct 4-8” clipper snow events. Plus I am not even sure when the last time was that there were two 4-8” clipper events only two weeks apart during December to March.

So I am not really sure yet what if anything this December will say about the rest of the winter. Since we have never had a December pattern like this before. Also note how each of the clipper events is being followed by a strong Great Lakes cutter with rain and a quick warm up. 
 

 

Eh. The last storm had the snow stick around for 3-4 days. That’s not so much a quick warm up

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Eh. The last storm had the snow stick around for 3-4 days. That’s not so much a quick warm up

I am comparing it to the old days when we would more extended snowcover with not so many warm ups with rain in between.

[psv88]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am comparing it to the old days when we would more extended snowcover with not so many warm ups with rain in between.

That rarely happened in mid December. If ever. 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That rarely happened in mid December. If ever. 

50°+ warm ups with or without rain have become much more common prior to and following snow events here than they used to be. 

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

50°+ warm ups with or without rain have become much more common prior to and following snow events here than they used to be. 

It’s December. The last event was mid December. There’s never a long lasting snowpack for all of december  

[TheClimateChanger]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has to be one of the most unusual December patterns that we have ever seen. The record low Arctic sea ice near the Kara and Barents seas has been linked to stratospheric warming events. 2025 marks one of the earliest SSWs on record.

It’s also possible that this is our first December with two distinct 4-8” clipper snow events. Plus I am not even sure when the last time was that there were two 4-8” clipper events only two weeks apart during December to March.

So I am not really sure yet what if anything this December will say about the rest of the winter. Since we have never had a December pattern like this before. Also note how each of the clipper events is being followed by a strong Great Lakes cutter with rain and a quick warm up. 
 

 

Updated PRISM here (through Christmas day). We've been tacking on 0.5F+/day during this Torchmas pattern. Probably around ~+3.2F once updated through yesterday.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Updated PRISM here (through Christmas day). We've been tacking on 0.5F+/day during this Torchmas pattern. Probably around ~+3.2F once updated through yesterday.

Not too shabby. I think this might wind up warmer than any December prior to 2015.