December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[the_other_guy]

this morning has a weird feel to it weatherwise. there’s snow on the ground with a stiff wind, but its a warm wind.

 

42F

[EastonSN+]

15 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Warmth stayed S&W, no surprise.   So much for the Scand block linking up with the SE ridge for a blowtorch over us as it transitioned to a -NAO.  Got a quick warm shot the 18th & 19th, similar to late November instead.  Looks like -5 departure from normal for the month.

The SE Ridge linking to the -NAO has always occured, however a MET previously stated that we will still snow if we have a 50/50 low present. Likely what happened a lot 1970 through 1989.

[SACRUS]

43 / 24 - 48 hour warmup and now in what is a sea of chill.  Friday (boxing day) storm a moderate snowfall. Then a miz/rain on the 29th with a storm threat between 30 - 31 - ist.  Very cold in the 12/31 - 1/4 period.  beyond there some moderation but remaining overall colder than normal as it appear now.

 

[SACRUS]

Members

 14.1k

Location:NYC-NJ

Posted December 24, 2024

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  71 (2015)
NYC: 72 (2015)
LGA: 72 (2015)
JFK: 69 (2015)


Lows: 

EWR: 3 (1983)
NYC: 6 (1983)
LGA: 4 (1983)
JFK: 5 (1983)

 

Historical:

 

1851: The Library of Congress caught fire. About 35,000 of the Library’s 55,000 volumes were destroyed.

1796: A famous cold day was felt at Cairo, IL where the temperature fell to -8 and in Kentucky where the mercury fell to -13. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers were frozen. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1836: An intense cold wave drove the temperature down nearly 40 degrees in 10 hours at Fort Snelling, MN to -28 °F by Christmas morning, one degree shy of 1822's record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1868: A severe freeze occurred at Jacksonville, FL when the temperature dropped to 20 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1872 - Extreme cold gripped the Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve. Downtown Chicago reported an all-time record low of 23 degrees below zero, which stood until January 1982, and Minneapolis MN reached 38 below. The afternoon high at Minneapolis was 17 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1879: It was a frigid Christmas Eve at Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada as the temperature fell to -54 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1924: In Fairfield, Montana, the temperature once dropped 84 degrees in just 12 hours, from 63 °F at noon on December 24, 1924 to -21 °F by midnight that same day, the record for a 12 hour temperature change. (Extreme Weather p. 68, by Christopher C. Burt)

1955: It felt anything like the eve of Christmas and within the first few days of winter as much of the southern Plains, deep south to the Tennessee Valley reported record highs. Records for the month of December included: Waco, TX: 91 °F, Abilene, TX: 89 °F, Dallas (Love Field), TX: 89 °F (broke previous daily record by 13 degrees), Dodge City, KS: 86 °F (broke previous daily record by 20 degrees), Oklahoma City, OK: 86 °F (broke previous daily record by 17 degrees), Wichita, KS: 83 °F (broke previous record by 20 degrees). (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Temperatures Given)

1961: (24th-25th) 20 inches of snow fell on most of MA, giving the greatest Christmas snow depths in many years. Hundreds of cars abandoned on drifted roads from W Boston suburbs to Worcester. 100 people in snowbound cars in Holden area rescued by State Police. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1963: At 0326 CDT on December 24th, 1963, a new all-time low for Memphis occurred with a reading of -13°F. The record still stands today.

 

1968: The crew of Apollo 8 took this photo, later dubbed “Earthrise,” on December 24th, 1968. During a broadcast that night, pilot Jim Lovell said: “The vast loneliness is awe-inspiring, and it makes you realize just what you have back there on Earth.”

1970: On December 22nd through December 24th 12.7 inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1982: The "Blizzard of '82" blasted eastern Colorado with 18 to 34 inches of snow. Akron was buried under 28 inches of snow. Denver recorded 23.6 inches of snow in 24 hours to set a new all-time 24 hour snowfall record. Winds gusting to 60 mph whipped the snow into 4 to 8 foot drifts. All highways leading out of Denver were closed and Stapleton International Airport was closed for 33 consecutive hours as visibilities fell to a quarter of a mile or less for 17 consecutive hours. Laramie, WY picked up 18.2 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History )
 

1983 - The barometric pressure reached 31.42 inches at Miles City, MT, to establish a record for the U.S. It was the coldest Christmas Eve of modern record. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and all-time record lows for December were reported at seventeen cities, including Chicago with a low of 25 degrees below zero, and Havre MT with a reading of 50 below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1987 - A four day seige of heavy rain began in the south central U.S. Flooding claimed four lives and caused millions of dollars property damage. Western Tennessee was drenched with up to fourteen inches of rain in two days. Total rainfall exceeded twelve inches around Memphis TN, and the heavy rain and subsequent flooding added insult to injury to victims of the West Memphis tornado on the 14th of the month. Little Rock AR experienced their wettest December day of record with 5.01 inches of rain. West Little Rock reported 10.20 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Early morning thunderstorms developing along a cold front spawned a powerful tornado at Franklin, TN, which killed one person, injured seven others, and caused eight million dollars damage. Another in a series of winter storms in the western U.S. produced 20 inches of snow at Blue Canyon CA in 24 hours. Bishop CA received 14 inches of snow in just six hours, and Redding CA, which averages three inches of snow per year, was blanketed with ten inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Fifty-seven cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 22 degrees below zero. Key West FL equalled their record for December with a morning low of 44 degrees. The high of just 45 degrees at Miami FL was an all-time record for that location. It smashed their previous record for the date by twenty degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996" The temperature at Central Park in New York City soared to 63 degrees, tying the record high at the time (2015 surpassed)  temperature for the date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2001: Buffalo, NY had gone through the entire month of November without any snow, the very first time in history that had occurred. But the city would make up for it on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as 25.2 inches of snow fell in just 24 hours, the 3rd highest 24 hour snowfall for the city. The new record would fall just two days later when 29.6 inches of snow fell between 7 PM on the 26th and 7 PM on the 27th. 82.3 inches of snow fell during a 5-day period, almost as much as the city normally receives in an entire winter season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History )

 

2004: An extremely rare snowstorm impacts southeastern Texas on this day. Corpus Christi International Airport officially measured 4.4 inches from this event. This was their second white Christmas ever recorded in Corpus Christi. The other white Christmas occurred in 1918 when 0.1 inches was reported.

[SACRUS]

 

2015 high temps in the 70s 10 years ago and 15 years ago models started to show signs of a blizzard on the 26th.

[bluewave]

This season is going to be an interesting case study for snowy La Niña Decembers across the NYC Metro region and the rest of the season. With the storm coming in next few days, December 2025 will rank in our snowier La Niña December list of years. Most of the time these seasons got to 25”+ from Newark out to Islip.

But the way we are getting this snowy December is different from the past La Niña cases. Unusually early stratospheric disruption with the record low sea ice in the Kara and Barents. The forecast is calling for a reversal of this pattern in the stratosphere after the first week of January. 

So it will be interesting to see if we follow up later in the season with more snow getting us over the 25” mark from Newark out to Islip. My guess is that we would probably need at least one NESIS KU event with a rapidly deepening low near the benchmark to pull this off. Since we haven’t reached 25”+ without at least one KU NESIS storm in the last 30 years.

But this storm track has been inactive since January 2022 with all our snow this December coming with an unusually snowy clipper snowfall pattern that we haven’t seen in many years. 

The overall 500 mb pattern leading to this is quite unique for December. It doesn’t match previous Decembers. So with all the unusual influences this month, it’s difficult to say for sure we will repeat the past winter snowfall outcomes following snowy La Niña Decembers. 

But we can say for sure that December 2025 will go into the books as one of the our coldest and snowiest in a long time regardless of what happens after the first week of January.

 
 

 

[steve392]

42 and howling winds... Again.  Really sick of these winds. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, steve392 said:

42 and howling winds... Again.  Really sick of these winds. 

Our whole neighborhood is doing luminaries this year. Going to be a pain if this wind keeps up

[IrishRob17]

49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Our whole neighborhood is doing luminaries this year. Going to be a pain if this wind keeps up

I've made ice luminaries in years past. They are awesome when the weather cooperates.  

[wthrmn654]

How's Europe doing so far? They seeing snow or cold? 

 

They been brutally hot past few summers i know curious how there winters have been. 

If anyone knows

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I've made ice luminaries in years past. They are awesome when the weather cooperates.  

We did 8000+ this year as a community. I have like 200 in my garage that neighbors are supposed to help distribute and light. 

[wthrmn654]

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Our whole neighborhood is doing luminaries this year. Going to be a pain if this wind keeps up

Post some pictures if you can.  Should be really nice.

Sand in the bags really helps against the wind.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Post some pictures if you can.  Should be really nice.

Sand in the bags really helps against the wind.

Yeah we have plenty of sand 

[Krs4Lfe]

Steve D from NYNJPA weather says to watch 12/31-1/1 for a potential storm around that time 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

How's Europe doing so far? They seeing snow or cold? 

 

They been brutally hot past few summers i know curious how there winters have been. 

If anyone knows

So far, it's been a warm winter, but a colder pattern is forecast to develop.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

The SE Ridge linking to the -NAO has always occured, however a MET previously stated that we will still snow if we have a 50/50 low present. Likely what happened a lot 1970 through 1989.

It does seem the SER is worse now and the 50/50 region trofing is not there as much.  Here are 2 setups from the 80s which nowadays I would bet result in much more massive SERs than they did back then.  Notice in both cases the low heights in the NW ATL, now it seems that feature is there less.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0205.php

 

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0204.php

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It does seem the SER is worse now and the 50/50 region trofing is not there as much.  Here are 2 setups from the 80s which nowadays I would bet result in much more massive SERs than they did back then.  Notice in both cases the low heights in the NW ATL, now it seems that feature is there less.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0205.php

 

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0204.php

Would be interesting if we do have solid evidence, however wouldn't the catalyst be deeper west coast troughing?

[nycwinter]

it is so windy i was pushed back by the wind i felt like a little kid again..

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Post some pictures if you can.  Should be really nice.

Sand in the bags really helps against the wind.

Unfortunately the guy who filed with a drone last year isn't around but will have video and pics

[SACRUS]

 

Just made it to 50, not quite the 75 in 2015 (ten years ago) but warm today and liekly not this warm again till after Jan 4th

[wthrmn654]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Just made it to 50, not quite the 75 in 2015 (ten years ago) but warm today and liekly not this warm again till after Jan 4th

77 at my sister's in Tennessee 

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

77 at my sister's in Tennessee 

The US Temperature map will be interesting this weekend with the tremendous warmth into the center of the nation / and the south and the dramatic drop off to the northeast

[psv88]

47 and sunny today. 

[Snowlover11]

Wind is brutal today despite being 41F.

[wthrmn654]

44 here today. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a mainly dry day with readings topping out in the lower and middle 40s. A few spots could pick up a sprinkle or shower. Colder air will then press into the region tomorrow night. That will set the stage for a winter storm to end the week.

Friday will see increasing clouds. Snow will arrive during the late afternoon or evening and continue overnight. The snow could fall moderately to even heavily for a time. Sleet or freezing rain could mix in toward the end of the storm in parts of the region. A general 4"-8" snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area.

The RRFS A, which will succeed the NAM, appears to have inherited the NAM's idiosyncratic behavior. It shows a narrow area of 4"-6" snows from southeastern Pennsylvania running southeastward across southern New Jersey. It shows less than 0.5" of snow in New York City and no measurable snow just north of New York City. Just one EPS member has less than 1" of snow in New York City. The RRFS A output is an outlier and is not considered.

The storm will be followed by a chilly weekend. The closing days of December will likely be colder than normal.

December 2025 will very likely finish with a maximum monthly temperature below 60° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +6.12 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.578 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.8° (5.3° below normal). That will make December 2025 the coldest December since 2010 when the monthly mean temperature was 32.8°. It would also make 2025 the third coldest December since 2000.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.