December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Little Christmas miracle on the EURO. 1 to 3 inches, however, in any event not warm.

Gfs also 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Little Christmas miracle on the EURO. 1 to 3 inches, however, in any event not warm.

GFS back to it long range fantasy storms. Something to monitor 

Euro as well 

[SACRUS]

 

Snow is about 4 - 6 hours out.

[donsutherland1]

Snow will overspread the region tonight and continue into tomorrow. It should taper off to flurries during the middle or latter part of the morning in New York City and early afternoon on Long Island. The New York City area will see a general 3"-5" snowfall with some locally higher amounts.

Final estimates:
Allentown: 2"-4"
Atlantic City: 3"-5"
Baltimore: 3"-5"
Bridgeport: 2"-4"
Islip: 3"-6"
New York City: 3"-5"
Newark: 3"-5"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 2"-4"

In the wake of the system, tomorrow and Monday will be blustery and cold days. High temperatures will likely wind up below freezing.

The WPO has reached severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +4.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.254 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.7° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Lowest maxima for Sunday and Monday for NYC

DEC 14 _ 21 (1902), 22 (1888), 23 (2010), 24 (2005), 26 (1903,1904), 27 (1898), 28 (1933)

DEC 15 _ 20 (1874,1914), 22 (1917), 25 (1871), 26 (1903), 27 (1919, 1962, 2010), 28 (1904, 1905, 1916, 2017)

Lowest minima for Monday

DEC 15 ___ 8 (1874), 9 (1883), 10 (1914, 1917), 13 (1900, 1902), 14 (1910, 1943, 1962), 15 (1904, 1921) __ 18 (1980, 2005) coldest recent years

Heaviest snowfalls 13-14 (2d totals include all > 1.0")

1917 _9.5" (8.0+1.5)

1902 _6.1" (6.0" 13th, 0.1" 14th)

1915 _6.0" (5.0+1.0)

2003 _5.8" (all on 14th)

1889 _5.5" (all on 14th) 

2013 _5.0" (all on 14th)

1942 _4.1" (all on 13th)

1922, 1945 _3.2" (all on 14th)

1904 _2.8" (on 13th, followed 4.2" on 12th for 7.0" total)

1951 _2.5" (all on 14th) +0.8" 15th = 3.3" total

1933 _2.2" (2.0+0.2)

1995 _1.7" (all on 14th)

1892 _1.5" (all on 13th), 1893 and 1907 _1.5" (all on 14th)

1981 _1.4" (all on 14th)

1923, 2017 _1.2" (all on 14th) _ 2017 added 1.2" 15th for 2.4" total.

1909 _1.0" (all on 13th)

[bluewave]

It’s nice to see North America doing better than Eurasia on snow extent for a change.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Enjoy the snow because the rest of the month looks rather mild and wet. Friday's storm looks quite potent, strong rain/wind potential 

Maybe signs things turn around late December. 

[BxEngine]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Enjoy the snow because the rest of the month looks rather mild and wet. Friday's storm looks quite potent, strong rain/wind potential 

Maybe signs things turn around late December. 

 

On 12/5/2025 at 1:48 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Same ole Great lakes tracks. It's cold/dry to warm/wet and back to cold dry. 

Horrible pattern for snow here. Maybe in January when storm track drops south we'll get something but this is a crappy pattern. 

Time to move to the lakes, tons of lake effect snows 

Stop. You already claimed the month over. Come back in january.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

 

Stop. You already claimed the month over. Come back in january.

We lucked out once otherwise my point stands. We go back to Great lakes tracks after this and for the rest of the month. 

[BxEngine]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

We lucked out once otherwise my point stands. We go back to Great lakes tracks after this and for the rest of the month. 

Ok. We heard you. It doesnt need to be repeated ad nauseam. Its weird and shows your true intentions have little to do with sharing the joys of discussing weather with like minded individuals from all walks of life. 

[wdrag]

00z/14 EPS melts most of the snow Wed-Fri AM,  followed by potential wind advisory 45MPH gust event Friday afternoon-eve in CAA.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

00z/14 EPS melts most of the snow Wed-Fri AM,  followed by potential wind advisory 45MPH gust event Friday afternoon-eve in CAA.

Yeah, this system has been getting stronger on the recent model runs.

New run

Old run

 

[North and West]

We lucked out once otherwise my point stands. We go back to Great lakes tracks after this and for the rest of the month. 

.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We lucked out once otherwise my point stands. We go back to Great lakes tracks after this and for the rest of the month. 

How did we luck out ? The pattern is pretty good.

[SACRUS]

32 / 32 light snow  0.54 LE / 4.8 of snow.   Cold the next 60 hours.  Moderating to overall  normal and above / at times much above  by the 18th through Christmas.  Brief cold this coming weekend (20th) followed by more warmer overall.  Strong cold to th north but ridging into the central and east stretching into the northeast.  Could see cold win out for a period to end the month and start the next.

 

12/14 - 12/17 : Colder than normal Sunday snows. 
12/18 - 12/25 : Overall warmer than normal to much warmer than normal (Brief cold 12/20-21) with some potential rain >1 inch
12/26 - beyond : Near normal / colder end to the month with next storm threat

 

 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

How did we luck out ? The pattern is pretty good.

It is a good pattern but similar to Other good patterns we’ve had past few years there really isn’t much to show for it. Big time cutter coming up

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It is a good pattern but similar to Other good patterns we’ve had past few years there really isn’t much to show for it. Big time cutter coming up

Uh ? Many areas got over 6 inches today ( NJ , LI and some parts of Philly)

Not going to last long the upcoming pattern. 

[SACRUS]

Highs:

EWR: 67 (2015)
NYC: 67 (2015)
LGA: 64 (2015)
JFK: 61 (2015)

 

Lows:

EWR: 11 (2005)
NYC: 12 (1976)
LGA: 12 (1976)
JFK: 12 (1976)

Historical: 

 

1924 - The temperature at Helena, MT, plunged 79 degrees in 24 hours, and 88 degrees in 34 hours. The mercury plummeted from 63 above to 25 below zero. At Fairfield MT the temperature plunged 84 degrees in just 12 hours, from 63 at Noon to 21 below zero at midnight. (David Ludlum)

1945: Beginning on this date through the 17th, a relentless December snowstorm buried Buffalo, NY under 36.6 inches of snow, with unofficial totals south of the city ranging up to 70 inches. Arctic high pressure built in across the west brining record lows to some locations from the Rockies to the West Coast including: Flagstaff, NV: -14 °F, Billings, MT: -13 °F, Casper, WY: -10 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1952: Trace of snow or sleet at or near Pensacola, Crestview, DeFuniak Springs, Quincy, Carrabelle, Tallahassee, St. Marks, Monticello, Madison, Mayo, Live Oak, Lake City, Glen St. Mary, and Hilliard in Florida. Frozen precipitation occurred before noon at most points, but happened in the afternoon at Mayo and Lake City and near Hilliard. Temperatures were above freezing and snow or sleet melted as it fell.

1958: Two coastal storms occurred about 3 days apart. Richmond, Virginia had 6.7 inches on the 11th and 5.8 inches on the 14th and recorded 9 inches on the ground on the 15th the most since February 1, 1948 according to the reference article. Norfolk,Virginia had 10.4 inches on the 11th and 3.3 inches on the 14th or 13.7 inches in a three day period. In the Shandoah Valley Dale Enterprise in Rockingham County, VA had no snow on the 11th and only 1.0 inch on the 14th. In the Shandoah Valley Naked Creek in Rockingham County, VA had no snow on the 11th and only 1.3 inch on the 14th. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

1959: Corona, NM received a record snowfall of 40 inches beginning on this date through the 16th. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1967: A state record 38 inches of snow fell in 24 hours in Heber Springs, AZ as the state was in the grips of a snowstorm. Actually, two different storms, they occurred so close together that they were perceived as one. 86 inches of snow fell during the 9 day period at Flagstaff, AZ. The Navajo nation was especially hard hit. Residents were instructed to write distress signals in the snow using ashes from their fireplaces. Snow even fell in the southern deserts of Arizona. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975: A southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front brought record high temperatures from the Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley including: St. Louis, MO: 75 °F, Louisville, KY: 73 °F, Columbia, MO: 70 °F, Springfield, MO: 69 °F, Evansville, IN: 69 °F, Cincinnati, OH: 69 °F, Springfield, IL: 68 °F, Indianapolis, IN: 67 °F, South Bend, IN: 67 °F (broke previous record by 13 degrees), Chicago, IL: 66 °F, Peoria, IL: 66 °F, Fort Wayne, IN: 66 °F. A line of severe thunderstorms with a strong cold front rumbled through southwest Iowa producing damaging winds. Farms throughout the area received extensive damage to buildings, trees and machinery. Some livestock were killed or injured. Behind the front Havre, MT and Sheridan, WY recorded record low temperatures for the date with -24 °F and -11 °F respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - A powerful storm spread heavy snow from the Southern High Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley. During the evening a tornado hit West Memphis TN killing six persons and injuring two hundred others. The tornado left 1500 persons homeless, and left all of the residents of Crittendon County without electricity. Kansas City MO was blanketed with 10.8 inches of snow, a 24 hour record for December, and snowfall totals in the Oklahoma panhandle ranged up to 14 inches. Strong winds, gusting to 63 mph at Austin TX, ushered arctic cold into the Great Plains, and caused considerable blowing and drifting of snow. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Blowing snow was reported in western Kansas, as snow and gusty winds plagued the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. Colorado Springs CO reported thirteen inches of snow. Low pressure in Wisconsin brought heavy snow to the Lake Superior snowbelt area, with 22 inches reported at Marquette MI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - High winds and heavy snow prevailed from Montana to Colorado. Snowfall totals in Wyoming ranged up to 20 inches at Burgess Junction, leaving up to 48 inches on the ground in the northeast sections of the state. Wind gusts in Colorado reached 87 mph south of the town of Rollinsville. Strong northwesterly winds continued to produce heavy snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in northeastern Lower Michigan ranged up to 29 inches at Hubbard Lake, with 28 inches reported at Posen. Two day totals in northeastern Wisconsin ranged up to thirty inches. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1997:Central Mississippi and western Alabama saw significant snowfall of 4 to 8 inches on this day. In Mississippi, this was one of the heavier snowfalls to occur since 1929. The weight of the snow caused limbs of trees to break, which knocked down power lines.

2006 - The Hanukkah Eve Wind Storm of 2006 caused storm to hurricane-force wind gusts and heavy rainfall hit the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. Damage estimates in Washington and Oregon totaled $220 million. Over 1.8 million residences and businesses without power. 18 people were killed, most of whom died of carbon monoxide poisoning in the days following the storm because of improper use of barbecue cookers and generators indoors.

2005: Houston, Texas: A string of severe thunderstorms drop 7.28 inches of rain in downtown Houston. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2010 - A rare tornado struck the small town of Aumsville, Oregon, tearing roofs off buildings, hurling objects into vehicles and homes and uprooting trees. No one was injured but the destruction left behind was severe. The National Weather Service classified the tornado as an EF2 with wind speeds of 110-120 mph and they said the tornado's damage trail was five miles long and 150 yards wide. 50 houses in Aumsville and the surrounding county area were affected, with 10 of them being unsuitable for occupancy. (KATU)

[BxEngine]

24 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It is a good pattern but similar to Other good patterns we’ve had past few years there really isn’t much to show for it. Big time cutter coming up

We dont live in buffalo. Many areas of our sub just received our biggest snow in a few years, and a few of those places will end december above average in snowfall. Asking for more than that because a cutter is coming is insane.  

[binbisso]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

How did we luck out ? The pattern is pretty good.

?? The pattern is hostile if you have been reading on here and for the last several years. -pna, +ao and nao phase 6 mjo raging pac jet. I'm confused how it snowed 6" in the nyc metro on dec 14th no less

[binbisso]

32 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

We dont live in buffalo. Many areas of our sub just received our biggest snow in a few years, and a few of those places will end december above average in snowfall. Asking for more than that because a cutter is coming is insane.  

Agree 100%. Above normal snowfall for most of our area and more than half a month to go. We will still have chances with all the cold bottled up in Canada and ridge axis never making it here. I wonder if the 4" snowfall in December in a nina will work out this year and don't give me the bullshit that cpk didn't get 4". Many places in the boroughs and bordering towns did

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It is a good pattern but similar to Other good patterns we’ve had past few years there really isn’t much to show for it. Big time cutter coming up

It goes to show that not all good periods produce. I know I have said this at nauseum however this was the norm from 1970 through 1999. 

[EastonSN+]

Interesting look on the ensembles for the holiday period. Big ridge just to the west with blocking to our north and normal temps. 

Not sure if this is a good overruning look or a shredder look.

[JustinRP37]

It is amazing how negative people are. We have had the best start to winter in years. Ski areas nearing 100% open for snowmaking trails and Vermont doing better than the Rockies. You would think it has been 50s and raining everyday. My oil consumption is up almost 25% from this time last year, so it has been cold. Upcoming pattern looks mild for a few days but nothing like we have had recently with weeks of mild at the peak of winter. Sit back and enjoy the snow today. 

[Krs4Lfe]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting look on the ensembles for the holiday period. Big ridge just to the west with blocking to our north and normal temps. 

Not sure if this is a good overruning look or a shredder look.

Probably a shredder look because the ridge is centered over CONUS. If we could get that ridge to go a bit further back over west US, we'd be in better shape, but that storm heading into the west coast will just force the ridge to roll over anyway

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this system has been getting stronger on the recent model runs.

New run

Old run

 

I know it's rare in this setup, but any chance the storm does not cut west of us? Or transfers to something developing off the coast?

[coastalplainsnowman]

Not 7-10 days ago there was much lamenting by some about what was considered to be an eternal cold/dry, warm/wet pattern in which it would never ever snow ever again.  Yet here we are this morning with a moderate snowfall across virtually everyone's backyard.  So certain 7-10 days ago, yet look outside the window.  At least recognize that there's nowhere near anything approaching certainty as to whether we will or won't get another nice storm 10-14 days from now, no matter what any model says today. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It is a good pattern but similar to Other good patterns we’ve had past few years there really isn’t much to show for it. Big time cutter coming up

 

[SACRUS]

 

Clearing line / snowfall visible

 

[lee59]

For those who like cold and snow, this winter is off to a very good start.