December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

3am update from NWS.  A little more snow on the south shore of NYC and Long Island . 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3am update from NWS.  A little more snow on the south shore of NYC and Long Island . 

Take it down a little south: 

This is really the first time since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm that we got this type of storm track, where there is more snow towards the coastal areas.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight runs have added some QPF to the New York City region into central Westchester County and southern Fairfield County. Ratios will probably be 11:1 to 13:1 across a good part of the region.

Taking all this into consideration, my thinking is that the New York City area, including its nearby northern  suburbs will see a general 2"-4" snowfall. A portion of New Jersey and Long Island could see higher amounts, especially as some Atlantic moisture could become involved as the system departs e.g., Islip could wind up with a 3"-5" snowfall.

Recent Snowfall Thresholds for New York City:

Storm Total Snowfall:
Last 1" or above snowfall: February 11-12, 2025: 1.6"
Last 2" or above snowfall: February 8-9, 2025: 3.1" 
Last 4" or above snowfall: January 28-29, 2022: 8.5"

Daily Snowfall:
Last 1" or above snowfall: February 11, 2025: 1.2"
Last 2" or above snowfall: February 8, 2025: 3.0"
Last 4" or above snowfall: January 29, 2022: 7.3"

Given the timing of the snow's onset, today will very likely extend the record streak without 4" or above snowfall to 1,414 consecutive days for New York City.

Farther south, Philadelphia is in line for a 3"-6" snowfall. The last time Philadelphia saw a 4" or greater snowstorm was January 19, 2024 when 4.6" fell. Philadelphia's last 6" or above snowstorm occurred during January 28-29, 2022 when 7.5" blanketed the city.

[psv88]

18 this morning 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Take it down a little south: 

This is really the first time since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm that we got this type of storm track, where there is more snow towards the coastal areas.

At least a step in the right direction but the KU track still remains elusive.

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Overnight runs have added some QPF to the New York City region into central Westchester County and southern Fairfield County. Ratios will probably be 11:1 to 13:1 across a good part of the region.

Taking all this into consideration, my thinking is that the New York City area, including its nearby northern  suburbs will see a general 2"-4" snowfall. A portion of New Jersey and Long Island could see higher amounts, especially as some Atlantic moisture could become involved as the system departs e.g., Islip could wind up with a 3"-5" snowfall.

Recent Snowfall Thresholds for New York City:

Storm Total Snowfall:
Last 1" or above snowfall: February 11-12, 2025: 1.6"
Last 2" or above snowfall: February 8-9, 2025: 3.1" 
Last 4" or above snowfall: January 28-29, 2022: 8.5"

Daily Snowfall:
Last 1" or above snowfall: February 11, 2025: 1.2"
Last 2" or above snowfall: February 8, 2025: 3.0"
Last 4" or above snowfall: January 29, 2022: 7.3"

Given the timing of the snow's onset, today will very likely extend the record streak without 4" or above snowfall to 1,414 consecutive days for New York City.

Farther south, Philadelphia is in line for a 3"-6" snowfall. The last time Philadelphia saw a 4" or greater snowstorm was January 19, 2024 when 4.6" fell. Philadelphia's last 6" or above snowstorm occurred during January 28-29, 2022 when 7.5" blanketed the city.

I'm not sure how it is done, but to me, a snowstorm is a snowstorm, take the clock out of it.

[SACRUS]

30 / 20 cloudy and we'll see if we can get to 40/low 40s. Snow overnight and through the morning into early afternoon Sunday 1 - 3 /  2 - 4  with some spots to 5.  Cold Mon - Tue.  Moderation to and above normal by the 18th through Christmas.  Beyond there near normal with a bit back and forth and we'll see if a storm threat can materialize by and for New Years eve.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2015) first of many record highs that month / season
NYC: 67 (2015)
LGA: 63 (1946)
JFK: 70 (2015)


Lows:

EWR: 8 (1960)
NYC: 8 (1960)
LGA: 8 (1960)
JFK: 8 (1960)

 

Historical:


1821" Cold snap begins at Ft. Snelling, MN. The temperature was below zero for 19 days except one. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1878: the temperature fell to 30 degrees in Los Angeles was the coldest ever in the month of December. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1915 - A heavy snowstorm kicked off the snowiest winter in modern records for western New England. (The Weather Channel)

1932: A frigid storm hit the region beginning the previous day continuing on this day. These days were likely the coldest on record in Southern California. On this day the high temperature in Santa Ana was 45 °F, 46 °F at Palm Springs and 48 °F at Escondido, the lowest maximum temperature for those locations on record. Yuma, AZ managed an afternoon high of only 36 °F, setting their lowest high temperature for the date. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1962 - A severe Florida freeze occurred. Morning lows reached 35 degrees at Miami, 18 degrees at Tampa, and 12 degrees at Jacksonville. It was the coldest December weather of the 20th century and caused millions of dollars damage to crops and foliage. In Georgia, the morning low of 9 degrees below zero at Blairsville established a state record for the month of December. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1963: Behind a strong cold front, arctic high pressure moved down bringing record low temperatures to a few locations including: Chester, MT: -30 °F, Townsend, MT: -24 °F, Lewistown, MT: -22 °F, Stanford, MT: -22 °F, Billings, MT: -16 °F, Rapid City, SD: -10 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967: (13th-20th) Today began 8 days of occasional snows for most of NM except the E. 1-4 feet fell over parts of W counties and mountains; drifts to 20 feet high in Torrance County. Winds to 87 mph northeast of Las Cruces on the 14th. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1984: A winter storm beginning on the date through the 15th left a heavy ice coating across parts of northwest Oklahoma. One to two inches of ice accumulated on everything in the area. The weight of the ice brought down power lines, leaving about 6,000 people without electricity for a week. Ice also caused severe damage to trees, even uprooting some of them. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - A major winter storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Southern Rockies and the Southern High Plains. Snowfall totals in New Mexico ranged up to 25 inches at Cedar Crest, with up to three feet of snow reported in the higher elevations. Winds of 75 mph, with gusts to 124 mph, were reported northeast of Albuquerque NM. El Paso TX was buried under 22.4 inches of snow, including a single storm record of 16.8 inches in 24 hours. The snowfall total surpassed their previous record for an entire winter season of 18.4 inches. Record cold was experienced the next three nights as readings dipped into the single numbers. High winds ushering unseasonably cold air into the southwestern U.S. gusted to 100 mph at Grapevine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Atlantic coast produced up to a foot of snow in eastern Nassau County and western Suffolk County of southeastern New York State. Mild weather prevailed across the western half of the country. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Goodland KS with a reading of 74 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds, ushering bitterly cold arctic air into the central U.S., produced squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 24 inches at Manistique. Nine cities in Arkansas and Texas reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico Rock AR with a reading of 4 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - A powerful Pacific storm system plowed into the western United States during the 13th-16th, producing high winds, heavy rains, significant mountain snowfall and causing 9 deaths (Associated Press). Rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches occurred in parts of California, and wind gusts over 45 mph produced up to 1.9 million power outages during the period (Pacific Gas & Electric).

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I'm not sure how it is done, but to me, a snowstorm is a snowstorm, take the clock out of it.

I enjoy all the snow I receive. Even 1 cm is appealing. Nevertheless, when posting statistics, even the ugly data (streak in my post) will be mentioned periodically for purposes of completeness.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I enjoy all the snow I receive. Even 1 cm is appealing. Nevertheless, when posting statistics, even the ugly data (streak in my post) will be mentioned periodically for purposes of completeness.

Thanks Don. I would imagine Boston must have a similar steak as the snow hole has basically been Philly to Boston. 

[lee59]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I enjoy all the snow I receive. Even 1 cm is appealing. Nevertheless, when posting statistics, even the ugly data (streak in my post) will be mentioned periodically for purposes of completeness.

I enjoy reading your posts, thanks.

[North and West]

I enjoy all the snow I receive. Even 1 cm is appealing. Nevertheless, when posting statistics, even the ugly data (streak in my post) will be mentioned periodically for purposes of completeness.

I like that. Statistics tell a story. They don’t paint the whole picture, but they’re there for the story.


.

[donsutherland1]

56 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I would imagine Boston must have a similar steak as the snow hole has basically been Philly to Boston. 

I will check out Boston when I get home.

[NorthShoreWx]

19⁰ min this morning.  Up to 37⁰ now with a SE breeze.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I would imagine Boston must have a similar steak as the snow hole has basically been Philly to Boston. 

Yeah, SNE has been in rough shape as well. C/NNE have done much better. 
 

Tracks have not been right for the stretch of coast from NJ to LI to SEMa.

Easy for Va to pile up nickel and dime events when everything is suppressed/shredded and weak, with no amplification to drive the waves northward. Happy this one appears to be working out. 

[[email protected]]

For the ninth year in a row, it will rain on New Years Eve! Two things in your life that you can count on, is Christmas week tourch and rain at New Years!

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, [email protected] said:

For the ninth year in a row, it will rain on New Years Eve! Two things in your life that you can count on, is Christmas week tourch and rain at New Years!

thanks man! where can i find your forecast?

[North and West]

For the ninth year in a row, it will rain on New Years Eve! Two things in your life that you can count on, is Christmas week tourch and rain at New Years!

which stocks should I rotate into on January 2?


.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I would imagine Boston must have a similar steak as the snow hole has basically been Philly to Boston. 

Boston's record stretch with < 4"  and < 5" daily snowfall ended at 1,028 days on December 19, 2024. Boston currently has a 1,387-day streak with < 6" of daily snowfall, which is the second longest such streak. The record is 1,772 consecutive days.

[EastonSN+]

Little Christmas miracle on the EURO. 1 to 3 inches, however, in any event not warm.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Little Christmas miracle on the EURO. 1 to 3 inches, however, in any event not warm.

Gfs also 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Little Christmas miracle on the EURO. 1 to 3 inches, however, in any event not warm.

GFS back to it long range fantasy storms. Something to monitor 

Euro as well 

[SACRUS]

 

Snow is about 4 - 6 hours out.

[donsutherland1]

Snow will overspread the region tonight and continue into tomorrow. It should taper off to flurries during the middle or latter part of the morning in New York City and early afternoon on Long Island. The New York City area will see a general 3"-5" snowfall with some locally higher amounts.

Final estimates:
Allentown: 2"-4"
Atlantic City: 3"-5"
Baltimore: 3"-5"
Bridgeport: 2"-4"
Islip: 3"-6"
New York City: 3"-5"
Newark: 3"-5"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 2"-4"

In the wake of the system, tomorrow and Monday will be blustery and cold days. High temperatures will likely wind up below freezing.

The WPO has reached severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +4.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.254 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.7° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Lowest maxima for Sunday and Monday for NYC

DEC 14 _ 21 (1902), 22 (1888), 23 (2010), 24 (2005), 26 (1903,1904), 27 (1898), 28 (1933)

DEC 15 _ 20 (1874,1914), 22 (1917), 25 (1871), 26 (1903), 27 (1919, 1962, 2010), 28 (1904, 1905, 1916, 2017)

Lowest minima for Monday

DEC 15 ___ 8 (1874), 9 (1883), 10 (1914, 1917), 13 (1900, 1902), 14 (1910, 1943, 1962), 15 (1904, 1921) __ 18 (1980, 2005) coldest recent years

Heaviest snowfalls 13-14 (2d totals include all > 1.0")

1917 _9.5" (8.0+1.5)

1902 _6.1" (6.0" 13th, 0.1" 14th)

1915 _6.0" (5.0+1.0)

2003 _5.8" (all on 14th)

1889 _5.5" (all on 14th) 

2013 _5.0" (all on 14th)

1942 _4.1" (all on 13th)

1922, 1945 _3.2" (all on 14th)

1904 _2.8" (on 13th, followed 4.2" on 12th for 7.0" total)

1951 _2.5" (all on 14th) +0.8" 15th = 3.3" total

1933 _2.2" (2.0+0.2)

1995 _1.7" (all on 14th)

1892 _1.5" (all on 13th), 1893 and 1907 _1.5" (all on 14th)

1981 _1.4" (all on 14th)

1923, 2017 _1.2" (all on 14th) _ 2017 added 1.2" 15th for 2.4" total.

1909 _1.0" (all on 13th)

[bluewave]

It’s nice to see North America doing better than Eurasia on snow extent for a change.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Enjoy the snow because the rest of the month looks rather mild and wet. Friday's storm looks quite potent, strong rain/wind potential 

Maybe signs things turn around late December. 

[BxEngine]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Enjoy the snow because the rest of the month looks rather mild and wet. Friday's storm looks quite potent, strong rain/wind potential 

Maybe signs things turn around late December. 

 

On 12/5/2025 at 1:48 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Same ole Great lakes tracks. It's cold/dry to warm/wet and back to cold dry. 

Horrible pattern for snow here. Maybe in January when storm track drops south we'll get something but this is a crappy pattern. 

Time to move to the lakes, tons of lake effect snows 

Stop. You already claimed the month over. Come back in january.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

 

Stop. You already claimed the month over. Come back in january.

We lucked out once otherwise my point stands. We go back to Great lakes tracks after this and for the rest of the month. 

[BxEngine]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

We lucked out once otherwise my point stands. We go back to Great lakes tracks after this and for the rest of the month. 

Ok. We heard you. It doesnt need to be repeated ad nauseam. Its weird and shows your true intentions have little to do with sharing the joys of discussing weather with like minded individuals from all walks of life.