December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Brasiluvsnow]

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be increasingly cloudy and cold tomorrow. Light to moderate snow will overspread the region tomorrow night. The New York City area will see a general 1"-3" snowfall with a few locally higher amounts.

In the wake of the system, Sunday and Monday will be blustery and cold days. High temperatures will likely wind up below freezing.

The WPO is falling toward severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -4.67 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.811 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 89% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8° (4.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Thank You Don as that is EXACTLY what I was saying prior to my posts being pulled but you said it much more eloquently ,, enjoy the snow tomorrow night folks

[jimbo073]

11 hours ago, Nibor said:

That little band of snow last night packed a punch.

Yes we had that in Hoboken too

 

[Roger Smith]

<<< LOWEST DECEMBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES >>>

Rank __ Year __ Temp 

_ 01 ____ 1917 __ 47 (1st) 

_t02 ____ 1872 __ 49 (15th), 1876 _ 49 (13th), 1880 _ 49 (5th), 1890 _ 49 (3rd), 1926 _ 49 (14th)

_t07 ____ 1874 __ 51 (3rd), 1882 _ 51 (6th), 1904 _ 51 (28th)

_t10 ____ 1909 __ 53 (6,13,14), 1944 _ 53 (8th), 1955 _ 53 (3rd), 1989 _ 53 (31st) (was 2nd lowest 48 before that)

_t14 ____ 1903 __ 54 (13th), 1910 _ 54 (30th), 1945 _ 54 (8th), 1997 _ 54 (16th)

_t18 ____ 1871 __ 55 (23rd), 1883 _ 55 (8th), 1886 _ 55 (24th), 1888 _ 55 (17th), 1902 _ 55 (22nd)

___ ___ t18 __ 1933 _ 55 (25th), 1958 _ 55 (5th), 1963 _ 55 (8th), 1976 _ 55 (7th), 1985 _ 55 (2nd, 24th),

___ ___ t18 __ 1995 _ 55 (3rd), 2005 _ 55 (24th)

_t30 ____ 1907 __ 56 (10th), 1929 _ 56 (14,15,19), 1935 _ 56 (9th), 1974 _ 56 (8th), 1977 _ 56 (14th)

_t35 ____ 1870 __ 57 (4th), 1894 _ 55 (12th), 1896 _ 57 (13th), 1898 _ 57 (30th), 1907 _ 57 (23rd), 

___ ___ t35 _ 1915 _ 57 (18th), 1922 _ 57 (1st), 1943 _ 57 (9th), 1959 _ 57 (13th)

_t44 ____ 1887 __ 58 (11th), 1892 _ 58 (8th), 1913 _ 58 (3rd), 1920 _ 58 (14th)

___ ___ _t44 _ 1925 _ 58 (5th, 6th), 1930 _ 58 (1st), 1942 _ 58 (2nd), 1947 _ 58 (3rd), 1948 _ 58 (13th), 

___ ___ _t44 _ 1961 _ 58 (5th), 1981 _ 58 (2nd), 2003 _ 58 (13th), 2019 _ 58 (10th)

_t57 ____ 1877 __ 59 (20th), 1884 __ 59 (31st), 1893 __ 59 (16th), 1899 _ 59 (11th,12th), 1900 _ 59 (24th),  

___ ___ t57 _ 1905 _ 59 (3rd), 1906 _ 59 (31st), 1921 _ 59 (1st)1952 _ 59 (11th), 1957 _ 59 (20th), 

___ ___ t57 _ 1972 _ 59 (31st), 1983 _ 59 (12th, 13th), 1986 _ 59 (3rd), 2004 _ 59 (8th, 23rd)

================================================

Up to 1910, it was normal for December to fail to break 59 F, it happened in 30 of 42 years (71%). 

From 1911 to 1960 it happened 23 more times (46%).

From 1961 to 2000 it happened 13 more times (33%). 

From 2001 to 2024 it happened 4 more times (17%). (2003,04,05,19)

Overall it has happened 70 times (45%). 

The interval 2006 to 2018 (13 Decembers) is the longest interval without a sub-60 maximum value.

Before that, the longest such interval was ten years (1964 to 1973) and before that six years (1936 to 1941). 

The average value for all years is 60.3 F. Since 1961 the average is 62.2 F. Since 1990 it is 62.9 F. 

 

 

[steve392]

11 hours ago, Nibor said:

That little band of snow last night packed a punch.

What time did it hit?  Explains all the snow in Kearny. 

[MANDA]

8 hours ago, Picard said:

I'm in Sparta, and have been pretty satisfied with the winter weather so far, all things considered.  There has not been any big events - but several rounds of smaller events to make things festive.  My ground has been covered since last Tuesday because it's been so cold.  It's been nice to have a few small refreshers since then.

That said - we are still in a precip deficit out this way, so at some point I'm hoping for much bigger snows or a healthy dose of early spring rains.  

Picked up .7" snowfall last evening in persistent and at times heavy snow squalls.  Visibility on Route 80 at the height of things was horrendous with moderate to heavy snow at times and a gusty wind.  The salt water spray being kicked up onto the windshield was no help either.

The .7" last evening boosts my seasonal total to 2.3".  On a nickle and dime ride to 3".

Lots of brine being sprayed today.  As early as 9am on Route 10 out this way.  Just don't see how it helps to spray this stuff 36 hours before an event is scheduled to begin.  Wouldn't it be worn out by all the traffic over 36 hours??  I don't know, just asking.

[Volcanic Winter]

Holding steady at 15F here, nice cold ground ahead of this little event. Looks like SEMA is gonna pick up the most in NE and I’m happy for those guys, they’ve been getting screwed as much as the NYC area lately. 

Hopefully this is a nice little event for everyone. I think LI down to my area should do pretty solid, hopefully it ticks up for NYC also. 

[SnoSki14]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cold Christmas on the Euro with some type of storm. 

Hopefully the cold runs continue

Strong gradient like pattern. Some models showing Arctic ridging. If the gradient can slip south every now and then for latter Dec and Jan then it could get interesting. 

I'd feel better being north though 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Strong gradient like pattern. Some models showing Arctic ridging. If the gradient can slip south every now and then for latter Dec and Jan then it could get interesting. 

I'd feel better being north though 

Way too much cold air to the north to be a blowtorch pattern

[bluewave]

One more Arctic outbreak before the pattern moderates.

 

 

[TJW014]

Beautiful sunrise. 

Red sky in the morning, a sailor's warning. 

Definitely has that "it's gonna snow" feeling in the air

[MJO812]

3am update from NWS.  A little more snow on the south shore of NYC and Long Island . 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3am update from NWS.  A little more snow on the south shore of NYC and Long Island . 

Take it down a little south: 

This is really the first time since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm that we got this type of storm track, where there is more snow towards the coastal areas.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight runs have added some QPF to the New York City region into central Westchester County and southern Fairfield County. Ratios will probably be 11:1 to 13:1 across a good part of the region.

Taking all this into consideration, my thinking is that the New York City area, including its nearby northern  suburbs will see a general 2"-4" snowfall. A portion of New Jersey and Long Island could see higher amounts, especially as some Atlantic moisture could become involved as the system departs e.g., Islip could wind up with a 3"-5" snowfall.

Recent Snowfall Thresholds for New York City:

Storm Total Snowfall:
Last 1" or above snowfall: February 11-12, 2025: 1.6"
Last 2" or above snowfall: February 8-9, 2025: 3.1" 
Last 4" or above snowfall: January 28-29, 2022: 8.5"

Daily Snowfall:
Last 1" or above snowfall: February 11, 2025: 1.2"
Last 2" or above snowfall: February 8, 2025: 3.0"
Last 4" or above snowfall: January 29, 2022: 7.3"

Given the timing of the snow's onset, today will very likely extend the record streak without 4" or above snowfall to 1,414 consecutive days for New York City.

Farther south, Philadelphia is in line for a 3"-6" snowfall. The last time Philadelphia saw a 4" or greater snowstorm was January 19, 2024 when 4.6" fell. Philadelphia's last 6" or above snowstorm occurred during January 28-29, 2022 when 7.5" blanketed the city.

[psv88]

18 this morning 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Take it down a little south: 

This is really the first time since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm that we got this type of storm track, where there is more snow towards the coastal areas.

At least a step in the right direction but the KU track still remains elusive.

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Overnight runs have added some QPF to the New York City region into central Westchester County and southern Fairfield County. Ratios will probably be 11:1 to 13:1 across a good part of the region.

Taking all this into consideration, my thinking is that the New York City area, including its nearby northern  suburbs will see a general 2"-4" snowfall. A portion of New Jersey and Long Island could see higher amounts, especially as some Atlantic moisture could become involved as the system departs e.g., Islip could wind up with a 3"-5" snowfall.

Recent Snowfall Thresholds for New York City:

Storm Total Snowfall:
Last 1" or above snowfall: February 11-12, 2025: 1.6"
Last 2" or above snowfall: February 8-9, 2025: 3.1" 
Last 4" or above snowfall: January 28-29, 2022: 8.5"

Daily Snowfall:
Last 1" or above snowfall: February 11, 2025: 1.2"
Last 2" or above snowfall: February 8, 2025: 3.0"
Last 4" or above snowfall: January 29, 2022: 7.3"

Given the timing of the snow's onset, today will very likely extend the record streak without 4" or above snowfall to 1,414 consecutive days for New York City.

Farther south, Philadelphia is in line for a 3"-6" snowfall. The last time Philadelphia saw a 4" or greater snowstorm was January 19, 2024 when 4.6" fell. Philadelphia's last 6" or above snowstorm occurred during January 28-29, 2022 when 7.5" blanketed the city.

I'm not sure how it is done, but to me, a snowstorm is a snowstorm, take the clock out of it.

[SACRUS]

30 / 20 cloudy and we'll see if we can get to 40/low 40s. Snow overnight and through the morning into early afternoon Sunday 1 - 3 /  2 - 4  with some spots to 5.  Cold Mon - Tue.  Moderation to and above normal by the 18th through Christmas.  Beyond there near normal with a bit back and forth and we'll see if a storm threat can materialize by and for New Years eve.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2015) first of many record highs that month / season
NYC: 67 (2015)
LGA: 63 (1946)
JFK: 70 (2015)


Lows:

EWR: 8 (1960)
NYC: 8 (1960)
LGA: 8 (1960)
JFK: 8 (1960)

 

Historical:


1821" Cold snap begins at Ft. Snelling, MN. The temperature was below zero for 19 days except one. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1878: the temperature fell to 30 degrees in Los Angeles was the coldest ever in the month of December. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1915 - A heavy snowstorm kicked off the snowiest winter in modern records for western New England. (The Weather Channel)

1932: A frigid storm hit the region beginning the previous day continuing on this day. These days were likely the coldest on record in Southern California. On this day the high temperature in Santa Ana was 45 °F, 46 °F at Palm Springs and 48 °F at Escondido, the lowest maximum temperature for those locations on record. Yuma, AZ managed an afternoon high of only 36 °F, setting their lowest high temperature for the date. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1962 - A severe Florida freeze occurred. Morning lows reached 35 degrees at Miami, 18 degrees at Tampa, and 12 degrees at Jacksonville. It was the coldest December weather of the 20th century and caused millions of dollars damage to crops and foliage. In Georgia, the morning low of 9 degrees below zero at Blairsville established a state record for the month of December. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1963: Behind a strong cold front, arctic high pressure moved down bringing record low temperatures to a few locations including: Chester, MT: -30 °F, Townsend, MT: -24 °F, Lewistown, MT: -22 °F, Stanford, MT: -22 °F, Billings, MT: -16 °F, Rapid City, SD: -10 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967: (13th-20th) Today began 8 days of occasional snows for most of NM except the E. 1-4 feet fell over parts of W counties and mountains; drifts to 20 feet high in Torrance County. Winds to 87 mph northeast of Las Cruces on the 14th. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1984: A winter storm beginning on the date through the 15th left a heavy ice coating across parts of northwest Oklahoma. One to two inches of ice accumulated on everything in the area. The weight of the ice brought down power lines, leaving about 6,000 people without electricity for a week. Ice also caused severe damage to trees, even uprooting some of them. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - A major winter storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Southern Rockies and the Southern High Plains. Snowfall totals in New Mexico ranged up to 25 inches at Cedar Crest, with up to three feet of snow reported in the higher elevations. Winds of 75 mph, with gusts to 124 mph, were reported northeast of Albuquerque NM. El Paso TX was buried under 22.4 inches of snow, including a single storm record of 16.8 inches in 24 hours. The snowfall total surpassed their previous record for an entire winter season of 18.4 inches. Record cold was experienced the next three nights as readings dipped into the single numbers. High winds ushering unseasonably cold air into the southwestern U.S. gusted to 100 mph at Grapevine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Atlantic coast produced up to a foot of snow in eastern Nassau County and western Suffolk County of southeastern New York State. Mild weather prevailed across the western half of the country. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Goodland KS with a reading of 74 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds, ushering bitterly cold arctic air into the central U.S., produced squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 24 inches at Manistique. Nine cities in Arkansas and Texas reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico Rock AR with a reading of 4 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - A powerful Pacific storm system plowed into the western United States during the 13th-16th, producing high winds, heavy rains, significant mountain snowfall and causing 9 deaths (Associated Press). Rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches occurred in parts of California, and wind gusts over 45 mph produced up to 1.9 million power outages during the period (Pacific Gas & Electric).

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I'm not sure how it is done, but to me, a snowstorm is a snowstorm, take the clock out of it.

I enjoy all the snow I receive. Even 1 cm is appealing. Nevertheless, when posting statistics, even the ugly data (streak in my post) will be mentioned periodically for purposes of completeness.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I enjoy all the snow I receive. Even 1 cm is appealing. Nevertheless, when posting statistics, even the ugly data (streak in my post) will be mentioned periodically for purposes of completeness.

Thanks Don. I would imagine Boston must have a similar steak as the snow hole has basically been Philly to Boston. 

[lee59]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I enjoy all the snow I receive. Even 1 cm is appealing. Nevertheless, when posting statistics, even the ugly data (streak in my post) will be mentioned periodically for purposes of completeness.

I enjoy reading your posts, thanks.

[North and West]

I enjoy all the snow I receive. Even 1 cm is appealing. Nevertheless, when posting statistics, even the ugly data (streak in my post) will be mentioned periodically for purposes of completeness.

I like that. Statistics tell a story. They don’t paint the whole picture, but they’re there for the story.


.

[donsutherland1]

56 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I would imagine Boston must have a similar steak as the snow hole has basically been Philly to Boston. 

I will check out Boston when I get home.

[NorthShoreWx]

19⁰ min this morning.  Up to 37⁰ now with a SE breeze.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I would imagine Boston must have a similar steak as the snow hole has basically been Philly to Boston. 

Yeah, SNE has been in rough shape as well. C/NNE have done much better. 
 

Tracks have not been right for the stretch of coast from NJ to LI to SEMa.

Easy for Va to pile up nickel and dime events when everything is suppressed/shredded and weak, with no amplification to drive the waves northward. Happy this one appears to be working out. 

[[email protected]]

For the ninth year in a row, it will rain on New Years Eve! Two things in your life that you can count on, is Christmas week tourch and rain at New Years!

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, [email protected] said:

For the ninth year in a row, it will rain on New Years Eve! Two things in your life that you can count on, is Christmas week tourch and rain at New Years!

thanks man! where can i find your forecast?

[North and West]

For the ninth year in a row, it will rain on New Years Eve! Two things in your life that you can count on, is Christmas week tourch and rain at New Years!

which stocks should I rotate into on January 2?


.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I would imagine Boston must have a similar steak as the snow hole has basically been Philly to Boston. 

Boston's record stretch with < 4"  and < 5" daily snowfall ended at 1,028 days on December 19, 2024. Boston currently has a 1,387-day streak with < 6" of daily snowfall, which is the second longest such streak. The record is 1,772 consecutive days.

[EastonSN+]

Little Christmas miracle on the EURO. 1 to 3 inches, however, in any event not warm.