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December 2025 OBS and Discussion


wdrag
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Midwest is getting more heavy snow through this weekend. Clipper moving in tonight, and then another snowstorm that's in Montana/the Northwest tonight moving in through this weekend. It's good to see snow to our north, west, and south. Winter definitely off to a good start for much of the northern tier. Hopefully we get ours this weekend and then we can reset later this month and start off January strong. I'm just concerned about torching late month and then that lasting through January like December 2022. Lots of similarities that month. 

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Two Decembers that flipped very greatly from cold first half (+2-4 days) to mild second half would be 1875 and 1895. The means changed as follows: 

1895 ___ mean 1-17 30.7 ___ mean 18-31 47.7 ___ overall 38.4

1875 ___ mean 1-20 29.1 ___ mean 19-31 41.3 ___ overall 33.4

The largest upward shifts in recent Decembers are

2003 ___ mean 1-21 34.5 ___ mean 22-31 44.2 ___ overall 37.6

2005 ___ mean 1-22 32.0 ___ mean 23-31 43.2 ___ overall  35.3

The most prolific change was in Dec 1895 and most of the rest of the winter (Jan-Mar 1896) turned quite cold again. Winter 1875-76 remained mild well into Feb 1876, March was cold. 

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Yet another snowy evening out there. Everything's dusted up pretty good - maybe 1/4". From radar I suspect parts of western or northern Morris county have accumulated 1/2" - 1" this evening. These minor events help soothe the snowstorm deprivation angst. 

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

If the GFS is correct this is just about all the snow the city sees this year 

It’s truly crazy. I can’t think of any other way to describe it. Thinking we might very likely be shut out of snow here this month. That is likely a terrible sign for the rest of the winter. It was actually cold enough to snow this month, it just couldn’t happen though. Always need a bit of luck down here on the coast. But each year that we don’t get a KU, we need more and more luck to get something because of how much the base state has warmed. The 2010s winters feel like ages ago now

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Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s truly crazy. I can’t think of any other way to describe it. Thinking we might very likely be shut out of snow here this month. That is likely a terrible sign for the rest of the winter. It was actually cold enough to snow this month, it just couldn’t happen though. Always need a bit of luck down here on the coast. But each year that we don’t get a KU, we need more and more luck to get something because of how much the base state has warmed. The 2010s winters feel like ages ago now

Even the AI gfs is more robust. Gfs is lost.

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7 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s truly crazy. I can’t think of any other way to describe it. Thinking we might very likely be shut out of snow here this month. That is likely a terrible sign for the rest of the winter. It was actually cold enough to snow this month, it just couldn’t happen though. Always need a bit of luck down here on the coast. But each year that we don’t get a KU, we need more and more luck to get something because of how much the base state has warmed. The 2010s winters feel like ages ago now

Change the track man. Put that needle in another groove. 

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9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ewr has fallen below freezing meaning each of the first 11 days of the month will have had lows below 32. The streak should go through at least day 17 before the moderation begins. Looking at other cold Decembers in the past 25 years I can't find another year that matched that feat

This is the first time since 1989. But now we are getting the typical moderation which has become a repeating pattern every year as we approach the 17th to 25th period. Dec 1989 stayed cold through the end of the month before its moderation for all of January and February.

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 1989
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Sum 1012 573 - - 1215 0 0.75 0.5 -
Average 32.6 18.5 25.6 -12.4 - - - - 0.0
Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4
1989-12-01 35 22 28.5 -13.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-02 47 18 32.5 -9.2 32 0 T T 0
1989-12-03 38 19 28.5 -12.9 36 0 T T 0
1989-12-04 29 15 22.0 -19.2 43 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-05 32 24 28.0 -12.9 37 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-06 47 27 37.0 -3.6 28 0 0.02 0.0 0
1989-12-07 43 22 32.5 -7.8 32 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-08 26 22 24.0 -16.0 41 0 0.01 0.1 0
1989-12-09 30 18 24.0 -15.7 41 0 0.00 0.0 T
1989-12-10 35 22 28.5 -11.0 36 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-11 40 29 34.5 -4.7 30 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-12 35 30 32.5 -6.4 32 0 T T 0
1989-12-13 32 22 27.0 -11.6 38 0 T T T
1989-12-14 31 15 23.0 -15.4 42 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-15 41 19 30.0 -8.1 35 0 0.10 T 0
1989-12-16 37 19 28.0 -9.9 37 0 T T 0
1989-12-17 33 17 25.0 -12.6 40 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-18 29 15 22.0 -15.4 43 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-19 27 16 21.5 -15.6 43 0 T T 0
1989-12-20 33 19 26.0 -10.9 39 0 T T T
1989-12-21 23 12 17.5 -19.1 47 0 T T T
1989-12-22 20 7 13.5 -22.9 51 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-23 22 7 14.5 -21.7 50 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-24 21 8 14.5 -21.4 50 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-25 26 12 19.0 -16.7 46 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-26 34 13 23.5 -12.0 41 0 T T 0
1989-12-27 21 8 14.5 -20.8 50 0 T T 0
1989-12-28 37 19 28.0 -7.1 37 0 T T T
1989-12-29 33 23 28.0 -6.9 37 0 0.00 0.0 0
1989-12-30 30 25 27.5 -7.2 37 0 0.14 0.4 T
1989-12-31 45 29 37.0 2.5 28 0 0.48 0.0 T


 

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - January 1990
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Sum 1478 1027 - - 756 0 4.72 2.4 -
Average 47.7 33.1 40.4 7.6 - - - - 0.1
Normal 40.0 25.5 32.8 - 1000 0 3.42 9.1
1990-01-01 46 32 39.0 4.7 26 0 0.14 0.0 0
1990-01-02 43 27 35.0 0.9 30 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-03 50 29 39.5 5.6 25 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-04 51 33 42.0 8.3 23 0 T 0.0 0
1990-01-05 49 36 42.5 8.9 22 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-06 47 34 40.5 7.1 24 0 T T 0
1990-01-07 44 26 35.0 1.7 30 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-08 41 31 36.0 2.9 29 0 1.14 1.4 0
1990-01-09 46 32 39.0 6.0 26 0 0.00 0.0 1
1990-01-10 47 39 43.0 10.1 22 0 0.03 0.0 1
1990-01-11 46 37 41.5 8.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-12 43 31 37.0 4.3 28 0 T T 0
1990-01-13 35 25 30.0 -2.6 35 0 T T 0
1990-01-14 37 22 29.5 -3.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-15 40 33 36.5 4.1 28 0 0.10 0.2 T
1990-01-16 57 32 44.5 12.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-17 62 40 51.0 18.7 14 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-18 66 44 55.0 22.7 10 0 T 0.0 0
1990-01-19 44 31 37.5 5.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-20 36 30 33.0 0.8 32 0 0.46 0.8 0
1990-01-21 38 31 34.5 2.3 30 0 0.30 T 0
1990-01-22 47 30 38.5 6.3 26 0 0.02 T 0
1990-01-23 46 34 40.0 7.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-24 57 41 49.0 16.8 16 0 T 0.0 0
1990-01-25 55 46 50.5 18.3 14 0 1.12 0.0 0
1990-01-26 58 36 47.0 14.7 18 0 0.20 0.0 0
1990-01-27 46 30 38.0 5.7 27 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-28 58 32 45.0 12.6 20 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-01-29 44 35 39.5 7.0 25 0 1.07 0.0 0
1990-01-30 46 37 41.5 9.0 23 0 0.14 0.0 0
1990-01-31 53 31 42.0 9.4 23 0 0.00 0.0 0


 

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - February 1990
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Sum 1382 846 - - 699 0 1.71 2.8 -
Average 49.4 30.2 39.8 4.7 - - - - 0.1
Normal 43.0 27.2 35.1 - 837 0 2.98 10.1
1990-02-01 54 32 43.0 10.3 22 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-02 53 39 46.0 13.1 19 0 0.06 0.0 0
1990-02-03 40 31 35.5 2.5 29 0 0.10 0.0 0
1990-02-04 40 34 37.0 3.9 28 0 0.29 T 0
1990-02-05 38 22 30.0 -3.3 35 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-06 57 30 43.5 10.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-07 55 39 47.0 13.4 18 0 T 0.0 0
1990-02-08 57 33 45.0 11.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-09 63 40 51.5 17.6 13 0 T 0.0 0
1990-02-10 63 35 49.0 14.9 16 0 0.52 0.0 0
1990-02-11 49 31 40.0 5.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-12 47 32 39.5 5.1 25 0 0.01 0.1 T
1990-02-13 53 29 41.0 6.4 24 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-14 60 41 50.5 15.7 14 0 0.02 0.0 0
1990-02-15 41 35 38.0 3.0 27 0 0.07 0.0 0
1990-02-16 58 37 47.5 12.2 17 0 0.01 0.0 0
1990-02-17 59 24 41.5 6.0 23 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-18 38 20 29.0 -6.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-19 57 33 45.0 9.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-20 38 27 32.5 -3.6 32 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-21 50 23 36.5 0.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 0
1990-02-22 63 34 48.5 11.9 16 0 0.13 0.0 0
1990-02-23 66 50 58.0 21.2 7 0 0.22 0.0 0
1990-02-24 50 31 40.5 3.4 24 0 0.15 1.3 0
1990-02-25 33 10 21.5 -15.8 43 0 0.13 1.4 2
1990-02-26 26 8 17.0 -20.6 48 0 0.00 0.0 2
1990-02-27 35 20 27.5 -10.3 37 0 T T T
1990-02-28 39 26 32.5 -5.5 32 0 0.00 0.0 T
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