MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Not sure why cold matters on xmas-it's an indoor holiday. Whether it's 12 or 56 you're sitting inside What? I don’t know where to start with this. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Regular GFS squishes it like a bug, congrats-ish DC to Cape May. Didn’t even know there was an AI GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Far NW suburbs still on track for a possible C-2" tomorrow. Unlike last week which was more of a latitudinal gradient, this potential wintry event has a stronger elevational component. I could see the top of Schunnemunk or Mt. Beacon getting an inch or two of snow while the Hudson River towns get zilch. Elevated NW NJ could get a little accumulation this time too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Threat for Sunday looks impotent 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 29 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Regular GFS squishes it like a bug, congrats-ish DC to Cape May. Didn’t even know there was an AI GFS. There is also a cmc para. AI is taking over everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Sunday isn't lost yet. The next day or so will likely resolve whether or not this is a potential wintry threat. The ICON, ECM-AI, GFS-AI, and GEFS support a possible snowstorm. The other guidance (UK, ECM, CMC, GEPS, EPS) aren't too far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, anthonymm said: I expect consensus from the 0z's tonight that it will trend to a nothing burger. Central park could get just a T of snow for December if sunday doesn't materialize (we start torching around the 20th). That means go super low this winter (10"ish or less). I get the pessimistic sentiment. I feel it too. But the reality is we just don't know how things will play out. Some of our best snowstorms seemingly came out of nowhere. And the positive surprises are more fun than fretting for a week about a modeled blizzard that might disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago AI Euro and euro are more amped 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, anthonymm said: I expect consensus from the 0z's tonight that it will trend to a nothing burger. Central park could get just a T of snow for December if sunday doesn't materialize (we start torching around the 20th). That means go super low this winter (10"ish or less). Just now, eduggs said: I get the pessimistic sentiment. I feel it too. But the reality is we just don't know how things will play out. Some of our best snowstorms seemingly came out of nowhere. And the positive surprises are more fun than fretting for a week about a modeled blizzard that might disappear. Unfortunately, in this fast flow pattern that has been dominant since 2019, I doubt storms will pop up out of nowhere. I think if there’s enough storminess around, one will come our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more on the ECMWF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: There is also a cmc para. AI is taking over everything. pretty soon we won't even have to post on here AI will post for us knowing what we would say and when we would say it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: pretty soon we won't even have to post on here AI will post for us knowing what we would say and when we would say it i don't think I want that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I'd take those ECM runs every time. Weekend, daytime snow. 8-12hr duration. Temps freezing or below. We pray. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It will turn briefly milder tomorrow. Some rain showers are likely tomorrow night. Some wet snow showers could occur well north and west of New York City. It will then turn somewhat cooler for the remainder of the week, but the cold won't match today's chill. Light precipitation is possible during the weekend, especially on Sunday. The ongoing stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first 10 days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000). The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were: 1. 30.6°, 2002 2. 32.2°, 2003 3. 32.4°, 2000 4. 33.1°, 2005 5. 33.4°, 2007 All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park. The WPO is forecast to become strongly negative beyond December 10th. That would likely contribute to the December 10-20 period also being colder to perhaps much colder than normal overall. The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +17.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.921 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.1° (5.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard Big troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard The only question remains: can we get 4” of snow at NYC before then? If we see a shutout for this month given how cold this month has been, that’s a big yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard Normal temps is not a torch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now