December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[lee59]

Its good to see some real winter weather move into many northern areas so early in the season. Folks in the Chicago area will probably be ice skating this time next week.

[snywx]

26/14 right now. Cold enough!

[donsutherland1]

A colder than normal pattern has now moved into place. A prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000).

The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were:

1. 30.6°, 2002
2. 32.2°, 2003
3. 32.4°, 2000
4. 33.1°, 2005
5. 33.4°, 2007

All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park.

A storm will affect the region on tomorrow into Wednesday, bringing 0.50"-1.50" precipitation to the region. Some wet snowflakes are possible in and around New York City early on, but no accumulation is likely. Interior sections have the highest probability of seeing accumulations of snow. Binghamton and portions of northwest New Jersey will likely see 3"-6" of snow with some locally higher amounts. Albany could see 4"-8" of snow.

The coldest air mass so far this season could move into the region late in the week. The temperature will likely tumble into the 20s Thursday night into Friday in New York City.

Another system could bring some light precipitation to the region during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around November 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -12.82 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.520 today.