December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

...Now we are replicating the failures of 1970 through 1999. 30 years of abysmal snowfall with 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years!! I expect the same now until we get to the next favorable period (hopefully I am still alive).

If we have to replicate that period, could we include a 1978 and 1996 in the mix?

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If we have to replicate that period, could we include a 1978 and 1996 in the mix?

I think we will get something similar. However we used up 1 above average snowfall winter on 2020/2021 now we only have 4 left lol. 

[the_other_guy]

so the storm tomorrow is now rain up to Kingston. The storm Friday disappeared. Now we’re in mid December.

 

Great. 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its December 1 for crying out loud.

it’s December 1 today but week 1 is done.

So really it’s December 8 for our purposes.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

so the storm tomorrow is now rain up to Kingston. The storm Friday disappeared. Now we’re in mid December.

 

Great. 

Yup right on queue for the Christmas Torch

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

so the storm tomorrow is now rain up to Kingston. The storm Friday disappeared. Now we’re in mid December.

 

Great. 

A fast pacific jet will lead to a cutter/hugger and then suppressed storm track. Each year that features record marine heatwaves in north pacific just compounds this. At least we get some real cold on the backside of this storm, but like all the other winters over past 7 years, it's hard to get that to connect with the timing of the storm. So we do warm/wet, and cold/dry.

[Krs4Lfe]

Let's hope we can get 4" here in December in NYC, or the chances of an average or above average snowfall this winter significantly decrease. 

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is incorrect.

4 winters (40%) of the 1980s had below 20 inches of snowfall, the lowest 8.1 inches in 88/89.

Big difference between a 17” winter and 4” winter if you ask me. Central park 2.3 and 7.9 2022-2024, followed by low teens the following winter.  That is definitely unprecedented. 

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Let's hope we can get 4" here in December in NYC, or the chances of an average or above average snowfall this winter significantly decrease. 

We still have 30 days to go for the final verdict on December, so a lot of time. But I will say this, just speaking for the NYC metro area and not any other place, in a La Niña winter, if you have a below normal snow December, in particular if you had no measureable snow in November, followed by a below normal December, it’s a very, very bad omen…..almost none of them throughout weather record keeping history have gone on to be above normal winters for snow and the overwhelming majority of them go on to be below normal winters for snow…..

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Yup right on queue for the Christmas Torch

Not this year

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

Big difference between a 17” winter and 4” winter if you ask me. Central park 2.3 and 7.9 2022-2024, followed by low teens the following winter.  That is definitely unprecedented. 

From 1997 through 2002 central park had 2 winters of 5.5 and 3.5 along with 10, 12.7, 16.3

Also, 1989 was 8.1.

[winterwx21]

Euro is frigid for next week. We're getting the early season cold that we often get with a La Nina. Let's hope we can at least pull off a little December accumulating snow like we did last year. 

[NorthShoreWx]

I asked AI to predict the December weather based on this thread.  Not sure how/if it weights posts, but it said everything is going to suck forever and then we'll die.

In my own experience, there is close to zero correlation between these threads and actual mid to long term outcomes one way or the other (except for potentially the dying part).  But at least it's entertaining.

The next two weeks should cool the local sea surface temperatures (high confidence).

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

so the storm tomorrow is now rain up to Kingston. The storm Friday disappeared. Now we’re in mid December.

 

Great. 

Friday is a ways away in modeling time - with renewed cold worth watching.