11/8-11/10 First Snow and Lake Effect Event

[A-L-E-K]

Swirly af out over the lake right now

[sbnwx85]

Absolutely ripping under this band. I went to pick up pizza for me and gf. Left with moderate snow, 1/2 mile visibility and mostly clear roads. Coming home with heavy snow, 1/4 mile visibility and snow packed roads.

[sbnwx85]

Snow rates have exploded since sunset. Went from one inch per hour to at least two… maybe three.

[sbnwx85]

2” in the last half hour. My math isn’t great but I think that’s 4”/hour. Bonkers stuff. The rest of the winter is going to be boring after this.

[KeenerWx]

14 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

2” in the last half hour. My math isn’t great but I think that’s 4”/hour. Bonkers stuff. The rest of the winter is going to be boring after this.

Incredible  

How much have you gotten from the lake so far?

[snowman33]

The recent HRRR runs have the main band stationary over Lake County, IL. Gets O'Hare into the heavier totals.

[sbnwx85]

16 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Incredible  

How much have you gotten from the lake so far?

7.5” from today. 3.5” in the last hour.

Storm total is 9” including yesterday’s system.

[sbnwx85]

Vort max is coming ashore now. Band should shift towards Illinois. Strong meso low and a Lake Huron connection creating decent snows across Western Michigan. That should come south and keep the snow falling off and on until about midnight locally.

 

[Powerball]

4 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Did NWS do away with 'lake effect snow warnings'. ?

 

I miss the Snow Advisory and Heavy Snow Warning headlines too...

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

I miss the Snow Advisory and Heavy Snow Warning headlines too...

I'm okay without those.  They were confusing to the normal person. 

[Chinook]

looks like a miniature cyclone

[mimillman]

Ground slowly starting to whiten here 

[A-L-E-K]

On the board, curious how this plays out

[cyclone77]

I'm surprised @RCNYILWX hasn't chimed in as of yet.

[Baum]

Coming down just west of I-355 in Chicago metro. Did not expect to see this so soon. Understood could be transient.

[A-L-E-K]

Need some of that 40+dbz shit over the lake imby 

[sbnwx85]

Was in the “eye” but it’s starting to fill in. Heavy rates continued just 10 miles to my west and southwest. I’m sure they’ve cleared a foot. Sitting at 8” IMBY.

[weathafella]

You can see the much heavier echoes pushing to the west over the lake.

 

https://imgur.com/a/qR2NywE

[ChiTownSnow]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You can see the much heavier echoes pushing to the west over the lake.

 

https://imgur.com/a/qR2NywE

Keep on a pushing...

[MidwestChaser]

7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Keep on a pushing...

[ChiTownSnow]

1 minute ago, MidwestChaser said:

His mother was a mudah

[Chicago Storm]

One of many… But this particular meso-low earlier this afternoon was quite significant.

[MJO812]

Any good webcams out of Chicago ?

[ChiTownSnow]

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

One of many… But this particular meso-low earlier this afternoon was quite significant.

Giving us that Xtra westerly push?

[KeenerWx]

Looks like it will be a relatively short punch here downwind in Jasper County. Not bought into the deterministic output for snow accumulation. But that’s just experience talking vs any science applied.  Still think there’s a shot of an inch or so.
 

Looking forward to seeing what comes of this further north and west into the city. 

[Malacka11]

Looks pretty good out there over the layke atm

[Chicago Storm]

The massive meso-low currently at the southern tip of the lake is just cranking.

Can't recall seeing something to that magnitude before around here.

[GaWx]

Fascinating very detailed update just a few minutes ago from Chi NWSFO explaining how difficult this forecast is:

UPDATE  

ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025  

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FORD AND  
BENTON COUNTIES, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE MANY, MANY  
HEADLINES IN EFFECT. ALSO, NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS  
THIS EVENING.  

CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT  
DETAILS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, MUCH LIKE THEY DO WITH SPECIFICS OF  
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. THIS WAS THE CASE THIS EVENING WITH THE  
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED MESO-LOW, WHICH  
MOVED INLAND INTO NORTHERN IN HOURS EARLIER THAN MOST CAM  
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING. THE FASTER AND FARTHER EAST TRACK  
OF THIS MESOLOW HAS RESULTED IN CAMS BEING WRONG IN THEIR  
DEPICTION OF A LARGE INITIAL WESTWARD SURGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
PLUME WELL INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN IL LATE THIS EVENING.  

RATHER, THIS MESOLOW HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH  
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A COHERENT, INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW EXTENDING NORTHWEST THEN NORTH UP THE SPINE OF THE  
LAKE FROM THIS MESOLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A SHARP  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE MESOLOW ACROSS  
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN STEADILY  
MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE, WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL  
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH HELPING PUSH THE  
LAKE EFFECT PLUME STEADILY WESTWARD.  

AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LAKE, ANTICIPATE  
THAT WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LAKE PLUME SHOULD PUSH IT INTO  
NORTHEAST IL BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN  
HOW FAR WEST THIS PLUME WILL GET INTO NE IL BEFORE BECOMING  
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME, THEN LIKELY SHIFTING BACK EASTWARD  
TOWARD AND ACROSS NORTHWEST IN MONDAY. REALLY NOT PUTTING A TON  
OF STOCK IN CAM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT, SO ONCOMING MIDNIGHT  
SHIFT WILL BE NOWCASTING THIS BAND THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON  
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.  

NO CHANGE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY  
A SPECIAL 0030Z VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY SOUNDING FROM THIS  
EVENING. STILL ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES  
PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST ELEMENTS OF THIS BAND. DEPENDING ON  
HOW LONG THE BAND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY, IT IS CERTAINLY  
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TOTALS PUSHING OR EVEN  
EXCEEDING A FOOT BEFORE THE BAND BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD.  
CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT LAKE OR COOK COUNTY IL  
COULD BE THAT WESTWARD TERMINUS THAT SEES SOME OF THE HEAVIER  
TOTALS.  

WHERE EVER THE BAND IS DURING RUSH HOUR TOMORROW MORNING, TRAVEL  
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.  

- IZZI

[OHweather]

I don't think the band taking slightly longer to swing west is a bad thing for the immediate lakeshore/Chicago area (and probably ups the odds at someone getting a higher-end total)...some earlier model depictions had it swinging west and breaking into weaker multi-bands pretty quickly (before congealing as it swings back east on Monday). This slower west push right now may allow for a more focused band that lasts longer close to the lake later tonight. 

[sbnwx85]

Laporte getting wrecked thanks to the stalled mesolow. 

Current conditions at

La Porte Municipal Airport (KPPO)

Lat: 41.57°NLon: 86.73°WElev: 812ft.

Heavy Snow Freezing Fog

30°F

-1°C

Humidity	100%
Wind Speed	W 16 G 35 mph
Barometer	30.05 in
Dewpoint	30°F (-1°C)
Visibility	0.15 mi
Wind Chill	19°F (-7°C)
Last update	9 Nov 9:55 pm CST