November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

When you go out to Dec. 6, you see that that the model is really struggling with the pattern.  Some members torch; some members cold.  So we are in wait mode....WB 12Z EPS 

[TSSN+]

55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Am I missing something, or do the 12z Euro/ENS and GEFS just dump all the cold air out west and just torch the east coast.

Warm will rule 

[Weather Will]

SER asserts itself in the latest WB weeklies. (Today versus yesterday's run.) Whether a blip or the start of a trend away from a December to remember TBD.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

SER asserts itself in the latest WB weeklies. (Today versus yesterday's run.) Whether a blip or the start of a trend away from a December to remember TBD.

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow. 

I think the differences are mainly noise on such a forecast product like the weeklies that far out. 

[Ji]

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow. 

His map is misleading because it’s starts at Dec 2 which will include a probably severe
Se ridge which will skew the map

[bncho]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

His map is misleading because it’s starts at Dec 2 which will include a probably severe
Se ridge which will skew the map

how bad was the concussion dude? did you get some severe personality disorder or something??

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

His map is misleading because it’s starts at Dec 2 which will include a probably severe
Se ridge which will skew the map

Exactly, when you start the 30 day on the 5th, you factor out the last few days of the SE ridge in early December.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, when you start the 30 day on the 5th, you factor out the last few days of the SE ridge in early December.

30 day temps on the Weeklies beginning on the 5th look good as well.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

30 day temps on the Weeklies beginning on the 5th look good as well.

Fascinating the cold in the SW and the Baja. The deep troughs on the West Coast this year, and the last several, have been an issue leading to a SER.  That 15 to 45 day map is interesting showing a cold anomaly from Alaska to the Baja. 

 

 

 

[Ji]

how bad was the concussion dude? did you get some severe personality disorder or something??

Don’t worry. I always start off strong when there’s nothing to lose. in 45 days. I’ll be falling apart.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Am I missing something, or do the 12z Euro/ENS and GEFS just dump all the cold air out west and just torch the east coast.

Welcome to Nina December reality. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, when you start the 30 day on the 5th, you factor out the last few days of the SE ridge in early December.

Urging caution when going out beyond 180hrs in a Nina. But alas, majority here are already aware of this.  

[Ji]

Gfs fantasy sleet storm dec 4-5

[WEATHER53]

I believe in 12/4-5

[jayyy]

Gfs fantasy sleet storm dec 4-5

ALEET!!

[Yeoman]

13 hours ago, eduggs said:

You cannot disprove a theory with feelings. Human quality-of-life has improved tremendously over the past few centuries (medicine [germ theory], electricity, water treatment, agriculture etc...) because (some) humans used science (data, evidence, repeatability) to solve problems instead of emotion, superstition, gut feeling etc... Human perceptions are biased and must be validated with observable data to draw reliable conclusions. Fortunately people like you (non-fact-based) do not steer social and technological policies and developments. You undoubtedly have other ways to contribute to society, but assessing the state of meteorological modeling isn't one of them.

This guy hasn't been playing with a full deck since day one.. ignore and move on

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The favorable H5 look for December has slowly degraded on models over the last few weeks. 

-early Nov models had a persistent -NAO through Dec.. that's really changed to positive around the end of Nov/early Dec

-A few days ago there was a strong +PNA on models. That has about disspeared

-The -EPO was looking like it would be a strong pattern a week ago. It's still going to happen, but now as strong and persistent as before. By the 2nd week of December it's probably gone

The best thing going for us is the Stratosphere warming, which usually "downwells" in +30 days at this time of year... puts a possible -NAO pattern for the 2nd half of December. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

End of the 0z EPS is not looking good lol

[frd]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

End of the 0z EPS is not looking good lol

Some models quickly recover the PV.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

I think we know where this is headed folks

[Benjamn3]

To quote the great Rob Schneider-

 

“Oh no, we suck again”.

[Blizzard of 93]

Lol, someone please tell me how this is not good …

EPS is still on track for cold to be entrenched by December 5th.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^It's what the pattern is evolving into. The EPO is breaking down there, and -PNA is building.. usually that happens over the Pacific at 500mb first then a few days later it effects SE ridge downstream. With super +NAO like that anything unfavorable in the Pacific is going to blast the ridge north going into the 2nd week of December.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think that evolving N. Pacific pattern doesn't match the MJO too well. 

Wonder if the EPS, and models over the last two days, have it less amped. 

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think that evolving N. Pacific pattern doesn't match the MJO too well. 

Wonder if the EPS, and models over the last two days, have it less amped. 

If we roll through phase 7, 8 and 1 later in December, we should have a pattern with chances to score Winter weather.

[Eskimo Joe]

Overnight GFS showing a rapid strengthening of the polar vortex after this episode. Yikes.

 

[katabatic]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think we know where this is headed folks

Unfortunately I think you're correct. Today is orientation day for the seasonal workers at Wisp and I'm getting the pbp of a seriously dour ski season outlook. They are warning folks they may not be able to provide 40 hours per week due to their forecast of a subpar season, much like 22-23. East of the Mississippi and south of I-90, there isn't even any fantasy snow to look at. I'm well aware of the calendar date today but I'm also well aware flashing red lights rarely become green arrows. 

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Unfortunately I think you're correct. Today is orientation day for the seasonal workers at Wisp and I'm getting the pbp of a seriously dour ski season outlook. They are warning folks they may not be able to provide 40 hours per week due to their forecast of a subpar season, much like 22-23. East of the Mississippi and south of I-90, there isn't even any fantasy snow to look at. I'm well aware of the calendar date today but I'm also well aware flashing red lights rarely become green arrows. 

Any estimates on when they plan to open?

[katabatic]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Any estimates on when they plan to open?

They always tell employees Thanksgiving weekend, obviously with the caveat of conditions permitting. We all know that's not realistic. It's generally mid December but I'm not seeing how that will be possible this year. Or if they can manage to get the guns fired up, it'll be very limited operations. As anyone around here knows, you qualify every forecast statement with the asterisk "I could be wrong". I hope I get frostbite from a stinging blizzard over and over...but the overall setup we are all staring at is one of a warm and dry winter.