November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

When you go out to Dec. 6, you see that that the model is really struggling with the pattern.  Some members torch; some members cold.  So we are in wait mode....WB 12Z EPS 

[TSSN+]

55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Am I missing something, or do the 12z Euro/ENS and GEFS just dump all the cold air out west and just torch the east coast.

Warm will rule 

[Weather Will]

SER asserts itself in the latest WB weeklies. (Today versus yesterday's run.) Whether a blip or the start of a trend away from a December to remember TBD.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

SER asserts itself in the latest WB weeklies. (Today versus yesterday's run.) Whether a blip or the start of a trend away from a December to remember TBD.

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow. 

I think the differences are mainly noise on such a forecast product like the weeklies that far out. 

[Ji]

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow. 

His map is misleading because it’s starts at Dec 2 which will include a probably severe
Se ridge which will skew the map

[bncho]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

His map is misleading because it’s starts at Dec 2 which will include a probably severe
Se ridge which will skew the map

how bad was the concussion dude? did you get some severe personality disorder or something??

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

His map is misleading because it’s starts at Dec 2 which will include a probably severe
Se ridge which will skew the map

Exactly, when you start the 30 day on the 5th, you factor out the last few days of the SE ridge in early December.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, when you start the 30 day on the 5th, you factor out the last few days of the SE ridge in early December.

30 day temps on the Weeklies beginning on the 5th look good as well.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

30 day temps on the Weeklies beginning on the 5th look good as well.

Fascinating the cold in the SW and the Baja. The deep troughs on the West Coast this year, and the last several, have been an issue leading to a SER.  That 15 to 45 day map is interesting showing a cold anomaly from Alaska to the Baja.