November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

48 minutes ago, bncho said:

that's a LOT better than i'd expect

Anybody wanna sign, I can work up a memo

[WxUSAF]

Those MJO analogs are variable based on ENSO and they’re not always high correlation. But if a wave moves into Phase 8 strongly in mid December, that should be supportive of cold and snow chances.

[frd]

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

Yes, nothing awful about MJO phase 6 in December so of course phase 7 would be even better. 

 

 

Phase 6, La Nina DEC

 

Thats does not seem to match what I am looking at. There are many MJO models and many possible outcomes. As @psuhoffman mentioned a couple days ago, having a great Pac in December, versus a - NAO is a more realistic path to cold and snow in our area, and I totally agree.

The Pac has screwed us several times in recent years and the - NAO is hard to predict. Its occurrence ( -NAO )  does not in any way guarantee snow. The block one year dived far to the SW that we warmed up and Texas had a blizzard. Another year it linked with the SER, and yet another year Canada was so warm the -NAO was useless. 

I would say a lot in December depends on the Pac. If things fall apart there then the hopes of a wintry December will not happen. 

   

[leo2000]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Thats does not seem to match what I am looking at. There are many MJO models and many possible outcomes. As @psuhoffman mentioned a couple days ago, having a great Pac in December, versus a - NAO is a more realistic path to cold and snow in our area, and I totally agree.

The Pac has screwed us several times in recent years and the - NAO is hard to predict. Its occurrence ( -NAO )  does not in any way guarantee snow. The block one year dived far to the SW that we warmed up and Texas had a blizzard. Another year it linked with the SER, and yet another year Canada was so warm the -NAO was useless. 

I would say a lot in December depends on the Pac. If things fall apart there then the hopes of a wintry December will not happen. 

   

I got this from Grace over in wx sphere she seems pretty knowledgeable about the weather. Of course the Pacific is the driver it can make make or break Winter. I would not worry though we are going to have a strong negative EPO and a positive Pna or negative Pna. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Some of the short term guidance is trying to hint at a sneaky cold Monday morning for the NW suburbs...perhaps even down to the upper 20s.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Jebman]

Sorry guys. Off topic. I deleted it. I am VERY sorry.

[WxUSAF]

Obviously all the details TBD, but it seems like every operational run the last couple days has some big Arctic outbreak happening or on the way Thanksgiving weekend. Out west and Plains favored, but plausible some cold gets to us behind a rainy cutter.

[leo2000]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Obviously all the details TBD, but it seems like every operational run the last couple days has some big Arctic outbreak happening or on the way Thanksgiving weekend. Out west and Plains favored, but plausible some cold gets to us behind a rainy cutter.

Some of the operational runs bring it more out east. We will have to see.