November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

48 minutes ago, bncho said:

that's a LOT better than i'd expect

Anybody wanna sign, I can work up a memo

[WxUSAF]

Those MJO analogs are variable based on ENSO and they’re not always high correlation. But if a wave moves into Phase 8 strongly in mid December, that should be supportive of cold and snow chances.

[frd]

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

Yes, nothing awful about MJO phase 6 in December so of course phase 7 would be even better. 

 

 

Phase 6, La Nina DEC

 

Thats does not seem to match what I am looking at. There are many MJO models and many possible outcomes. As @psuhoffman mentioned a couple days ago, having a great Pac in December, versus a - NAO is a more realistic path to cold and snow in our area, and I totally agree.

The Pac has screwed us several times in recent years and the - NAO is hard to predict. Its occurrence ( -NAO )  does not in any way guarantee snow. The block one year dived far to the SW that we warmed up and Texas had a blizzard. Another year it linked with the SER, and yet another year Canada was so warm the -NAO was useless. 

I would say a lot in December depends on the Pac. If things fall apart there then the hopes of a wintry December will not happen. 

   

[leo2000]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Thats does not seem to match what I am looking at. There are many MJO models and many possible outcomes. As @psuhoffman mentioned a couple days ago, having a great Pac in December, versus a - NAO is a more realistic path to cold and snow in our area, and I totally agree.

The Pac has screwed us several times in recent years and the - NAO is hard to predict. Its occurrence ( -NAO )  does not in any way guarantee snow. The block one year dived far to the SW that we warmed up and Texas had a blizzard. Another year it linked with the SER, and yet another year Canada was so warm the -NAO was useless. 

I would say a lot in December depends on the Pac. If things fall apart there then the hopes of a wintry December will not happen. 

   

I got this from Grace over in wx sphere she seems pretty knowledgeable about the weather. Of course the Pacific is the driver it can make make or break Winter. I would not worry though we are going to have a strong negative EPO and a positive Pna or negative Pna. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Some of the short term guidance is trying to hint at a sneaky cold Monday morning for the NW suburbs...perhaps even down to the upper 20s.