November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We knew 

Hey, we don’t judge.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Hey, we don’t judge.

Very Glad you’re on the mend pal! 

[kdxken]

33 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s been a rough few years personally but I’m on the mend and feeling a lot better.

Hate the cold now but will track for the love of the chase.

Bring the Mohawk back. Days of yore.

[jbenedet]

Not the best harbinger for winter weenies 

https://www.wmur.com/article/rare-bird-sighting-portsmouth-nh-11232025/69522743

“The species typically breeds in Europe and winters in tropical Africa. 

This is the first recorded sighting in New Hampshire.”

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, kdxken said:

Bring the Mohawk back. Days of yore.

Yeah let’s get the Mohawk back in the avatar and pretend it’s the late 2000s Decembers when SWFEs were a dime a dozen. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Very Glad you’re on the mend pal! 

Thanks

[Go Kart Mozart]

So, I have read that the recent eruption of Hayle Gubbi sent "large amounts" of SO2 into the strat.  Does anyone have more details?

[Torch Tiger]

23 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

So, I have read that the recent eruption of Hayle Gubbi sent "large amounts" of SO2 into the strat.  Does anyone have more details?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s been a rough few years personally but I’m on the mend and feeling a lot better.

Hate the cold now but will track for the love of the chase.

Hey, it’s not the kill, it’s the thrill of the chase!  Let’s just hope Sweet Lucy doesn’t pull the ball on us. 
(it’s in the lyrics) 
 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The cold will be lurking in Canada by next week just need a SW to come in under SNE but definitely cutter potential moving through first week of December.  I think the interior has a shot at some frozen accumulation but we are talking out beyond day 7 or 8.   Honestly, I would take a warm cutter over 1"-2" of slop turning to rain, this early in the season.   

[weathafella]

6 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s been a rough few years personally but I’m on the mend and feeling a lot better.

Hate the cold now but will track for the love of the chase.

Glad you’re getting better Bob.  

[ineedsnow]

Crazy pink sunrise right now if you got a good view east.. I was driving so didn't get a pic but looks awesome! 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah, beautiful start

[WinterWolf]

10 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

Is that you? 

[ineedsnow]

Of course thicker clouds ruin it when i drive to find a good spot 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Crazy pink sunrise right now if you got a good view east.. I was driving so didn't get a pic but looks awesome! 

Caught it the last mile of my run. I’ve seen a lot over the years. Was a solid one 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

WPO/EPO cold press is really evident after about the 2nd of December. We’ll see if we can cash that in for some snow events but I’m fairly optimistic right now. I’m not full-on weenie mode like you’d see with a PNA ridge going up to Yukon Territory, but given the Niña background state and strong -PDO, this is a pretty good look for us in early December. 
 

Doesn’t mean a whole lot yet, but also I noticed the EPS mean is creeping up little by little for snowfall. It has about 3-6” across SNE now in that Dec 3-9 period. So it def has some members in there producing decent snow. 
 

I do like seeing the consistent low height max in Quebec/Labrador on that 5-day mean H5 anomaly between Dec 3-8. It’s a very good spot to hold in those arctic highs during a SWFE. We haven’t seen much of that since the glory days. 
 

Get ready for something akin to December 2007 or 2008. It's going to be good month for most of us, just without the dumb SSW crack that social media was dealing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some deep cold in SE Canada. 

Been preaching since last summer that se Canada will be cold this season, ignore the rest. All you need to know unless focused on a KU. There hasn't been a shred of doubt in my mind RE a cold se Canada.

[jbenedet]

The first week of December is warming on guidance. MJO, teleconnections forecasts are all moving to warm phases.

I don’t get the excitement at all. 
 

MJO phase 7 in November is actually N to cold but we are moving into December as we settle into that phase. I think this is leading to some false cold signals on guidance. Of course I’m speaking wrt where most of us live—close to the coast. The modeling showing more ridging in the SE and cold dumping over the central CONUS is much more in line with the tapestry of MJO phase 7 in December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s been a rough few years personally but I’m on the mend and feeling a lot better.

Hate the cold now but will track for the love of the chase.

I've been there, man....wonderful thing about the weather is it's always there waiting in the other side.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The first week of December is warming on guidance. MJO, teleconnections forecasts are all moving to warm phases.

I don’t get the excitement at all. 
 

MJO phase 7 in November is actually N to cold but we are moving into December as we settle into that phase. I think this is leading to some false cold signals on guidance. Of course I’m speaking wrt where most of us live—close to the coast. The modeling showing more ridging in the SE and cold dumping over the central CONUS is much more in line with the tapestry of MJO phase 7 in December.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

The first week of December is warming on guidance. MJO, teleconnections forecasts are all moving to warm phases.

I don’t get the excitement at all. 
 

MJO phase 7 in November is actually N to cold but we are moving into December as we settle into that phase. I think this is leading to some false signals on guidance. The modeling showing more ridging in the SE and cold dumping over the central CONUS is much more in line with the tapestry of MJO phase 7 in December.

I've been on a the second week of December train, as well, but I won't be stunned to see a few inches that first week. Agree on the se ridge...the pattern is flawed, but we aren't looking for a blizzard, here.....it doesn't take perfection to snow at this latitude in December.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been preaching since last summer that se Canada will be cold this season, ignore the rest. All you need to know unless focused on a KU. There hasn't been a shred of doubt in my mind RE a cold se Canada.

The one thing that kind of concerns me, though is some signs of zonal flow across the US Canada border. I worry that bottles some of the cold up in Canada versus spilling in here more frequently. But we’ll see, just something I’ve kind of noticed.

[Damage In Tolland]

The first snowfall appears to be the night of Dec 4th into the 5th. Everything honing in on that time period 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The one thing that kind of concerns me, though is some signs of zonal flow across the US Canada border. I worry that bottles some of the cold up in Canada versus spilling in here more frequently. But we’ll see, just something I’ve kind of noticed.

I'm going to start diving in again after I emerge from my diabetic coma on Friday, but I'm not trying to imply it's going to be 1993-1994. There are going to be some mild stretches when the cold will get bottled up...no question.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The first snowfall appears to be the night of Dec 4th into the 5th. Everything honing in on that time period 

I had 4" December 2-3, 2007....right on cue.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The first snowfall appears to be the night of Dec 4th into the 5th. Everything honing in on that time period 

Sometime between 12-3 to 12-5 is the time to watch. Nothing imminent and something well south of us is possible.

[Snowcrazed71]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had 4" December 2-3, 2007....right on cue.

Ill take some Snow on my birthday!! 

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI ensembles are pretty cold on the entire run, but not really enthused about later next week.