November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It Pretty much comes down to…we just don’t/won’t KNOW…until very close in.  What we do know, is there looks to be potential.  But will it be realized? 

There are times when we can have a very solid idea looking 2-3-4 weeks out but I don't think this is one of those. There is just way too much going on and too many complexities, especially in the short term on how some of the subtle features evolve. Part of it too is we are still in the seasonal transition across the hemisphere and often times that can enhance the battles within the models. 

But I just want to get a favorable pattern moving through December and have cold air available. The brunt of the cold doesn't need to be over us and the cold doesn't necessarily need to be locked in. If we get a favorable storm track with cold air nearby...we will cash in (maybe not so much for coastal areas early on). Having cold air in place or even nearby means nothing if the storm track sucks. 

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Boy does it look like it wants to snow

We were out in Gilford all afternoon and I said the same thing. Def a pre-snow event vibe to the clouds.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I miss having access to Ventrice’s MJO stuff. All I have are those wheeler diagrams. Better than nothing I guess.

The 200mb VP anomalies?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The 200mb VP anomalies?

The euro stuff he had. I think some gfs stuff is out there. 

[eduggs]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On both of those ensembles, the EPS and the AIEPS, I see a ridge off the West Coast and part of a trough dipping into the southwest corner of the US. I don’t really see any red flags? If anything that trough over the southwest will help shoot some impulses northeast because otherwise if we didn’t have that, I think we might have suppression working its way down.

The individuals show extreme variability: torched or frigid. The means are blending the extremes and timing differences. I see hallmarks of the dreaded warm/wet (cutter) to dry/cold repetitive scenario: persistent ridge in southeast, hints of a trof out west, low heights across the Canadian Maritimes. I think it's a red flag that negative height anomalies never progress east into the Deep South. Your comment about a possible SWFE is a good one I think. I could see a few of them in succession if the day 10+ progs hold up... would seem to favor the north country.

[WinterWolf]

Day 10+ progs don’t usually hold up though. 

[CoastalWx]

Both progs are really cold in Canada. I see Eduggs is in Jersey so I see why he might be looking for something a little different. I don’t mind being near the battle ground with SE Canada BN in temps.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

His name is Snowcrazed

I was just giving some info from another source... Calm down snappy. ;-)

[CoastalWx]

All the whacking to stratospheric wind reverses and weeklies don’t show much NAO ridging. Love it. Gradient flow it is.

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All the whacking to stratospheric wind reverses and weeklies don’t show much NAO ridging. Love it. Gradient flow it is.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

All the whacking to stratospheric wind reverses and weeklies don’t show much NAO ridging. Love it. Gradient flow it is.

The majority don’t appear to have this right, anyway. 

There is no SSW.... there never was      yet.  

There may be one about Dec 7 or so... but antecedent to the -WPO/ -D(EPO) that was not the case.   

This is a ridging that is emerging from mid to upper troposphere and the tropopausal heights are elevated around the N arc of the ridge at upper levels; that does have an effect on the morphology of the PV.  As I explained the other day, it may be splitting hairs?  Either way, a -WPO/-EPO arc can arrive into that scenario however it does, when it gets into that mode, we load ... cold air in the winter.   

The cold you noted in Canada ( 2-meter temp anomalies... and 850...etc), that is a direct result of the activated loading pattern.  This is just -WPO/-EPO, nothing else.  Not sure why social media can't help itself but go from 0 to sci fi drama with such little excuse to do so - sometimes I suspect it's society dopamine plague since we've become tech zombies.  How's that for sci fi.   jesus 

As far as the colder pattern, this is all greater confidence than people are letting on - a lot of which I suspect is not having patience.   Part of the problem of visualizing these changes at long leads ... ( over 15 days in some case...), about 5 days in waiting all the doubts start happening ... People expect to see things now.   Meanwhile, models will come in and out of the signal ( operational versions).   

By the way, here's the 360hr 10 hPa GFS prog... this is a warm intrusion - we'll see if it's real. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I could see NNE doing really well moving through Dec. 

But I'm holding out alot of hope on another SSW occurring. When you're looking for something to shake things up...that is something that can do it. Seeing how the stratosphere has evolved so far and some of the forecasts moving through the next few weeks...I think is a great signal. This opens the door for January and February. If December sucks then so be it...but if it does suck we better be seeing things starting to change...and I don't mean "10 days out stuff"...like actually physically ongoing changes

I think I'll do fine in December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Both progs are really cold in Canada. I see Eduggs is in Jersey so I see why he might be looking for something a little different. I don’t mind being near the battle ground with SE Canada BN in temps.

December will be very good for us...it's the mid Atlantic that will take the shaft. Not worried in the least. My December analogs show this well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December will be very good for us...it's the mid Atlantic that will take the shaft. Not worried in the least. My December analogs show this well.

Thats a bummer. Some feel the Mid Atlantic will do well because it is a Nina and its December, however I think we end the month below normal snowfall here, which by Dec. climo is not that much anyway, as far as temps its up and down. Basically nothing remarkable down here. Winters are not great anymore for cold and snowlovers in my hood.      

[Torch Tiger]

need a December thread. welcome to winter!

 

[Torch Tiger]

it has been a long while since we've had a regional war-type season, that'd be fun

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

need a December thread. welcome to winter!

 

The Canadian…you really are a frieken clown.  LMFAO! 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The Canadian…you really are a frieken clown.  LMFAO! 

are you ready for 07-08 "lite"? 

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, frd said:

Thats a bummer. Some feel the Mid Atlantic will do well because it is a Nina and its December, however I think we end the month below normal snowfall here, which by Dec. climo is not that much anyway, as far as temps its up and down. Basically nothing remarkable down here. Winters are not great anymore for cold and snowlovers in my hood.      

You’re in Delaware.  Enough said.  Sure, a 2010 comes along every 75-100 years or so…but it’s never really been anything remarkable there…ever.  So the fact that you say “winters are not great anymore in my hood”,  is just weird? 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

are you ready for 07-08 "lite"? 

I’m ready for everything..how bout you? 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m ready for everything..how bout you? 

yeah i'm ready to max out with snow.  not joking, i want 100"

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

yeah i'm ready to max out with snow.  not joking, i want 100"

Same here.