November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It Pretty much comes down to…we just don’t/won’t KNOW…until very close in.  What we do know, is there looks to be potential.  But will it be realized? 

There are times when we can have a very solid idea looking 2-3-4 weeks out but I don't think this is one of those. There is just way too much going on and too many complexities, especially in the short term on how some of the subtle features evolve. Part of it too is we are still in the seasonal transition across the hemisphere and often times that can enhance the battles within the models. 

But I just want to get a favorable pattern moving through December and have cold air available. The brunt of the cold doesn't need to be over us and the cold doesn't necessarily need to be locked in. If we get a favorable storm track with cold air nearby...we will cash in (maybe not so much for coastal areas early on). Having cold air in place or even nearby means nothing if the storm track sucks. 

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Boy does it look like it wants to snow

We were out in Gilford all afternoon and I said the same thing. Def a pre-snow event vibe to the clouds.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I miss having access to Ventrice’s MJO stuff. All I have are those wheeler diagrams. Better than nothing I guess.

The 200mb VP anomalies?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The 200mb VP anomalies?

The euro stuff he had. I think some gfs stuff is out there. 

[eduggs]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On both of those ensembles, the EPS and the AIEPS, I see a ridge off the West Coast and part of a trough dipping into the southwest corner of the US. I don’t really see any red flags? If anything that trough over the southwest will help shoot some impulses northeast because otherwise if we didn’t have that, I think we might have suppression working its way down.

The individuals show extreme variability: torched or frigid. The means are blending the extremes and timing differences. I see hallmarks of the dreaded warm/wet (cutter) to dry/cold repetitive scenario: persistent ridge in southeast, hints of a trof out west, low heights across the Canadian Maritimes. I think it's a red flag that negative height anomalies never progress east into the Deep South. Your comment about a possible SWFE is a good one I think. I could see a few of them in succession if the day 10+ progs hold up... would seem to favor the north country.

[WinterWolf]

Day 10+ progs don’t usually hold up though. 

[CoastalWx]

Both progs are really cold in Canada. I see Eduggs is in Jersey so I see why he might be looking for something a little different. I don’t mind being near the battle ground with SE Canada BN in temps.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

His name is Snowcrazed

I was just giving some info from another source... Calm down snappy. ;-)

[CoastalWx]

All the whacking to stratospheric wind reverses and weeklies don’t show much NAO ridging. Love it. Gradient flow it is.

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All the whacking to stratospheric wind reverses and weeklies don’t show much NAO ridging. Love it. Gradient flow it is.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All the whacking to stratospheric wind reverses and weeklies don’t show much NAO ridging. Love it. Gradient flow it is.

The majority doesn't appear to have this right, anyway. 

There is no SSW.... there never was      yet.  

There may be one about Dec 7 or so... but antecedent to the -WPO/ -D(EPO) that was not the case.   

This is a ridging that is emerging from mid to upper troposphere and the tropopausal heights are elevated around the N arc of the ridge at upper levels; that does have an effect on the morphology of the PV.  As I explained the other day, it may be splitting hairs?  Either way, a -WPO/-EPO arc can arrive into that scenario however it does, when it gets into that mode, we load ... cold air in the winter.   

The cold you noted in Canada ( 2-meter temp anomalies... and 850...etc), that is a direct result of the activated loading pattern.  This is just -WPO/-EPO, nothing else.  Not sure why social media can't help itself but go from 0 to sci fi drama with such little excuse to do so - sometimes I suspect it's society dopamine plague since we've become tech zombies.  How's that for sci fi.   jesus 

As far as the colder pattern, this is all greater confidence than people are letting on - a lot of which I suspect is not having patience.   Part of the problem of visualizing these changes at long leads ... ( over 15 days in some case...), about 5 days in waiting all the doubts start happening ... People expect to see things now.   Meanwhile, models will come in and out of the signal ( operational versions).   

By the way, here's the 360hr 10 hPa GFS prog... this is a warm intrusion - we'll see if it's real.