November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, klw said:

Proof that it is too soon to say that summer's back is broken!

Reinstall in Tol?

[RyRyB]

18z HRRR says coating for CT coast tomorrow am. Sell?

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s been ying and yang run to run. I mentioned yesterday I want consistency, but again it also points to after first week for more sustained stuff. Maybe we sneak something interior near 12/1 or so.

The inconsistency may not be a terrible thing though. Sometimes inconsistency can be a signal that things are being shaken up and will change. But I think if we are to see things change it will be more towards mid December than early. 

I haven't paid attention much to the stratosphere stuff lately but what brooklynwx posted earlier was nice to see. Stratospheric warmings or a coupled stratosphere don't necessarily mean anything for us (this could just as easily have a greater impact on Europe depending on configuration/evolution) but getting something like this earlier in the season could be hue for us. I feel like some of the more recent, stronger episodes happened second half of winter, so by the time the lower troposphere felt the impacts, it was too late for us

[dryslot]

HRRR was awful on the last event here on 11/16, As a matter of fact, Its probably 90% of the time awful.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The inconsistency may not be a terrible thing though. Sometimes inconsistency can be a signal that things are being shaken up and will change. But I think if we are to see things change it will be more towards mid December than early. 

I haven't paid attention much to the stratosphere stuff lately but what brooklynwx posted earlier was nice to see. Stratospheric warmings or a coupled stratosphere don't necessarily mean anything for us (this could just as easily have a greater impact on Europe depending on configuration/evolution) but getting something like this earlier in the season could be hue for us. I feel like some of the more recent, stronger episodes happened second half of winter, so by the time the lower troposphere felt the impacts, it was too late for us

No, I expect some Ying and yang that far out but what I’m trying to tell Wolfie and others is that I want to see consistency in a decent pacific. So let’s see this 12 Z run hang on and either stay flat or improve as we go forward in tim.

That 12z EPS depicts a way better pacific. You now have a more classic negative EPO Ridge, which dumps cold air into the plains and out west, but that allows it to be #1 a very sharp cold blast and #2 would eventually spill east after stem winder.

I think it’s still points to something after the first week, that hasn’t changed. I just want to see those types of improvements continue, and also it’s possible we squeeze in something over the interior perhaps around December 1.

[dryslot]

I'll wait for more consistency and when we get closer in if its still there on the EPS to get more intrigued, At least going forward, It doesn't look to be garbage.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No, I expect some Ying and yang that far out but what I’m trying to tell Wolfie and others is that I want to see consistency in a decent pacific. So let’s see this 12 Z run hang on and either stay flat or improve as we go forward in tim.

That 12z EPS depicts a way better pacific. You now have a more classic negative EPO Ridge, which dumps cold air into the plains and out west, but that allows it to be #1 a very sharp cold blast and #2 would eventually spill east after stem winder.

I think it’s still points to something after the first week, that hasn’t changed. I just want to see those types of improvements continue, and also it’s possible we squeeze in something over the interior perhaps around December 1.

Gotcha...yes. We definitely need to see this 

[weatherwiz]

The HRRR I think is out to lunch. I was curious to see what the soundings looked like in the vicinity of the precip on the HRRR...did see some moistening of the profile but there is a quite a bit of dry air to overcome and being on the northern fringes of the precip shield...don't think that's going to do it. But maybe portions of Fairfield county are clipped with some better lvl moisture 

[dryslot]

Where's Luke? Looks like the last time he posted was 09/16.

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It would have been  93-94. That winter was record breaking ln CT. And then So was 95-96.  But they both melted out completely at a point. And that’s just it…it’s super rare to not have that happen at some point in SNE. 

I don't think we totally melted out in 95-96 (in Granby) but very close. Regardless, it came back strong. Man would I take some combo of that again!

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

02-03 was very good…but again not wire to wire. 

It was pretty close to wire to wire over interior SNE north of 84. They cashed in during both the Xmas ‘02 event and the early Jan ‘03 event with basically very little melting and that lasted until the big February snow events which added more pack to an already good one. We did get an ugly cutter in very late February that year. 
 

There was a cutter about a week before Xmas too that kind of put a gap between the Thanksgiving week/early December snows and the Xmas event. But again, pretty close to wire to wire…esp for SNE standards. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was pretty close to wire to wire over interior SNE north of 84. They cashed in during both the Xmas ‘02 event and the early Jan ‘03 event with basically very little melting and that lasted until the big February snow events which added more pack to an already good one. We did get an ugly cutter in very late February that year. 

My definition is probably more lax, but we had snow events from late October into April. That is as solid as it comes around these parts. Maybe not wire to wire snowpack, but each month featured legit events and many of them were good ones. That winter is in the top tier for me just for that reason.

[WxWatcher007]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was pretty close to wire to wire over interior SNE north of 84. They cashed in during both the Xmas ‘02 event and the early Jan ‘03 event with basically very little melting and that lasted until the big February snow events which added more pack to an already good one. We did get an ugly cutter in very late February that year. 
 

There was a cutter about a week before Xmas too that kind of put a gap between the Thanksgiving week/early December snows and the Xmas event. But again, pretty close to wire to wire…esp for SNE standards. 

Xmas ‘02. One of my favorite events. 

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It would have been  93-94. That winter was record breaking ln CT. And then So was 95-96.  But they both melted out completely at a point. And that’s just it…it’s super rare to not have that happen at some point in SNE. 

95-96 had an epic pack early then melted most it before a reload. Could have been epic. We also had some late starters that held a good pack for a while but to get starting at the beginning of December until St Paddys day is rare.

[MJO812]

Congrats on next weekend on gfs

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

HRRR was awful on the last event here on 11/16, As a matter of fact, Its probably 90% of the time awful.

HRRR has been one of the best up here lately with the upslope storms lol.

3km NAM is like 200% too wet.  Global models don’t see the terrain that well.  HRRR was really good with precip amounts.

[Torch Tiger]

55 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

95-96 had an epic pack early then melted most it before a reload. Could have been epic. We also had some late starters that held a good pack for a while but to get starting at the beginning of December until St Paddys day is rare.

That pack was impressive, like 30" or so in attleboro

[HIPPYVALLEY]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats on next weekend on gfs

*240hr OP run.   

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is nice. Feet of snow otg for freak and roses still growing on the CT Shore.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is nice. Feet of snow otg for freak and roses still growing on the CT Shore.

Thanksgiving Eve into T-day morning has been trending colder too. Not expecting much winter precip here but interior CNE northward might grab something. If we somehow tick it another nudge colder, then maybe it gets interesting down into interior pike region. OF course, maybe it's not much at all like the Euro had....

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

My definition is probably more lax, but we had snow events from late October into April. That is as solid as it comes around these parts. Maybe not wire to wire snowpack, but each month featured legit events and many of them were good ones. That winter is in the top tier for me just for that reason.

Yeah every month had major events....'02-'03 and '95-'96 both seasons (not October in 1995, lol...but still November to April)

2014-15 had a dud December here which kind of ruined the wire to wire vibe....too bad because we slammed over the interior on T-day eve that year with a nice warning event. '17-'18 was very solid Dec-Mar, but not much in April or November that season.