November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

RAM!

F150.

[dendrite]

Kidding aside…

The op/ens are pretty much what we’ve been saying still. The cold dumps to our west and we eventually get the moderated airmass. Maybe it gets a little wedgy in the region (more favored up here) when the ridging builds in here, but it’s probably a continued swing of AN and slightly BN. 

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Horrific. 

I know, Its the same going to Eustis, They salt the piss out of RT 27 to Sugarloaf and there is still Prius and Subaru's in the pucker brush.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Well here's the thing...  Globals overall have not held onto the structure of the oncoming short wave into confluence zone in NYS New England so have been depressed.  6z EC topped in favor of the 06-09z RRSFA, RAP, NAM3K and 12z HRRR.  

I sure hope the 12z/18 HRRR is not that far wrong... it could be too aggressive to the north but I expect a 2-4" stripe somewhere near I80 which would be a little south of the 12z HRRR axis.  Uncertainty of course but we have to make decisions on what we do.

So potentially embarrassing if it fails but this is what I updated locally.

Updating I84 corridor 9AM. Plowing will probably be needed for at least the higher elevations tomorrow morning from northeast PA through nw NJ/se NYS into at least southern CT and possibly Hartford Ashford. Too much short term modeling that is at the leading edge of mesoscale modeling is upping amounts and predicting a decent 5 hour event that will require adjusted traveling times.

 

Entire I84 region from the Poconos across nw NJ, se NYS into ag least the southern two thirds of CT 1AM-9AM Wednesday (tomorrow) morning. A 3-6 hour period of wet snow that likely accumulates 1-4"-especially grass. Valley roads 600 feet or below just wet because of temps just above freezing but accumulations on untreated pavements expected for the hills where the temp will drop to 30, especially 1000 feet or higher. The northern extent of the snow shield is a little uncertain but prepare for slower travel-delays in your early Wednesday morning travel. In my opinion there is an increasing chance of a 2 hour delay for high terrain schools I80 northward. Overall

you should probably cite your sources that you steal from

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Check out those dews in CT

 

Wedgy

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Wedgy

Are you wearing too tight of an underwear or underpants?

[SouthCoastMA]

Maybe we can sneak a graze by the offshore wave on 11/29, see 12Z AI. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Maybe we can sneak a graze by the offshore wave on 11/29, see 12Z AI. 

That whole 11/29-12/1 period is semi-interesting. There’s going to be troughing most likely entering the Midwest so if we have some local confluence/cold press ahead of it, then we might be able to sneak an event in there. OP euro shows a colder look on that today. As usual, best chance this early is going to be interior and prob some latitude as well, but something to watch. 

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I know, Its the same going to Eustis, They salt the piss out of RT 27 to Sugarloaf and there is still Prius and Subaru's in the pucker brush.

Ya, my truck many/most times is unrecognizable after a trip up north and back. I always hope for cold and dry…truck stays decent when that’s the majority of the trip. But most times it’s a complete disaster. 

[cut]

15 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

One of the early 90s great winters came close to wire to wire. Every time it warmed up it was brief with a cold front with squalls ending it. Will probably remembers the year, I want to say 93-94.

Think it was 92-93. They had to close the bridges in the NYC area to break off the ice as someone had been killed by a falling piece off the superstructure of one of them.

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That whole 11/29-12/1 period is semi-interesting. There’s going to be troughing most likely entering the Midwest so if we have some local confluence/cold press ahead of it, then we might be able to sneak an event in there. OP euro shows a colder look on that today. As usual, best chance this early is going to be interior and prob some latitude as well, but something to watch. 

I would bank on this. Confluence has been superior more often that not the last several years across southeast Canada.

[weatherwiz]

Wasn't 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 like a wire-to-wire winter? 

[CoastalWx]

Big changes in EPS. We take.

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

The point is wire to wire does not exist in SNE. They’re always a melt out, or a mild up, and/or a rain event.  Mid December to mid March… with nothing but cold and snow the whole way…?  Give me a break. And if there is one of those..there’s probably only one, since records have been kept anyway. 

It's rare farther north, too.  Using the (late lamented) Farmington Maine co-op, with 129 winters from 1893-94 thru 2021-22, only 4 times did all 4 "snow months" exceed the average, 1922-23, 1962-63, 1968-69 (their top winter with 164") and 2007-08.  Only the 2 earliest had 20"+ in all 4 months.  (The DJFM averages, rounded to the inch, are 18/21/21/16.  Avg winter 89.6".)

[weathafella]

1992-93 was snowy but had some huge torches.  The February and March packs were epic however.  1993-94 came close except for a 3 day torch that melted everything but reloaded until winters end.

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, cut said:

Think it was 92-93. They had to close the bridges in the NYC area to break off the ice as someone had been killed by a falling piece off the superstructure of one of them.

It would have been  93-94. That winter was record breaking ln CT. And then So was 95-96.  But they both melted out completely at a point. And that’s just it…it’s super rare to not have that happen at some point in SNE. 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big changes in EPS. We take.

Kind of figured that was coming….that’s why I asked you this morning what I did. Yes, we take. 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wasn't 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 like a wire-to-wire winter? 

02-03 was very good…but again not wire to wire. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

02-03 was very good…but again not wire to wire. 

Wasn't there a back-to-back period there where BDL put up like 90" then 70"+?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I know, Its the same going to Eustis, They salt the piss out of RT 27 to Sugarloaf and there is still Prius and Subaru's in the pucker brush.

And semis on the rocks in Chain of Ponds.

Addressing the 2002-03 and 2003-04 question: 
02-03 was great in SNE but cold and dry here - suppression.  Total snow was 75% of average and it's one of only 3 (of 27) winters without a 20"+ month.
03-04 was front-loaded here.  The storms of Dec 6-7 and 14-15 totaled 37.1".  the rest of the snow season had only 35.5".

 

[klw]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Check out those dews in CT

 

Proof that it is too soon to say that summer's back is broken!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Black Friday will be a volatile forecast for the next week.  Could be wintry or we could do the dew. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That whole 11/29-12/1 period is semi-interesting. There’s going to be troughing most likely entering the Midwest so if we have some local confluence/cold press ahead of it, then we might be able to sneak an event in there. OP euro shows a colder look on that today. As usual, best chance this early is going to be interior and prob some latitude as well, but something to watch. 

And then after that, I'm trying to figure out when/if the operational runs start unleashing the goods. With that massive -WPO relay into a -D(EPO) going on at the end of next week, so far it's just a castrated gorilla cold wave ... 

Yeah, I've been cautioning folks that we may not have to wait until the 2nd week of Dec for something wintry to break in our favor given the modalities from about bird day+     We've benefited ( though the actual daily anomalies may only vaguely show - ) from a -NAO pulsation in the foreground and will continue to do so, then relay that index' collapse into the NE Pac changes.  That's not quite the same circumstance as going from a neutral field to a -EPO.  This latter tends send the southerly gale up the coast but we're idiosyncratically different when there's antecedent west limbed -NAO.  

[brooklynwx99]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big changes in EPS. We take.

can see heights rising out west at the end as well as the Atlantic pattern becoming blockier

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wasn't there a back-to-back period there where BDL put up like 90" then 70"+?

I’m not sure on that? 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not sure on that? 

maybe it was 03-04 and 04-05...or maybe it was like 02-03 good, 03-04 sucked, then 04-05 was great. Can't find my notebook. Guess I'll look online but the handling of the snowfall and tornado databases frustrates the hell out of me. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe it was 03-04 and 04-05...or maybe it was like 02-03 good, 03-04 sucked, then 04-05 was great. Can't find my notebook. Guess I'll look online but the handling of the snowfall and tornado databases frustrates the hell out of me. 

93-94 great. 94-95 suck. 95-95 great. T  N at I know. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

93-94 great. 94-95 suck. 95-95 great. T  N at I know. 

That missing snowfall data pisses me off. I always forget what happened...it had to do with the switching from something to something but 1995-1996 was like 115.2" and I'm pretty sure 2002-20023 was over 80" or maybe 90" and I think is second highest on record for BDL..

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Kind of figured that was coming….that’s why I asked you this morning what I did. Yes, we take. 

It’s been ying and yang run to run. I mentioned yesterday I want consistency, but again it also points to after first week for more sustained stuff. Maybe we sneak something interior near 12/1 or so.

[dendrite]

Can we actually get BN heights across the entire CONUS anymore?